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June 24, 2002
Volume 80, Number 25
CENEAR 80 25 p. 16
ISSN 0009-2347


BUSINESS

AVENTIS PAINTS ROSY FUTURE
But lack of new blockbusters continues to push its stock down

Aventis promised to double the number of blockbuster drugs in its portfolio by 2006 at its annual "R&D Days" in New York City and London last week.

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Landau
AVENTIS PHOTO
However, investors were disappointed that no blockbuster drugs with annual sales potential of at least $1 billion would be coming onto the market this year--a predicament for other drugmakers as well. Plus, many fear a downturn in revenues from hay fever drug Allegra--with annual sales of $1.7 billion--as other nonsedating antihistamines come on the market.

As a result, Aventis' shares slid almost 4% to $66.28 on the New York Stock Exchange after the first presentation in London on June 18; they have slipped about 15% over the past year.

Chairman Igor Landau assured financial analysts that Aventis "has the ingredients to achieve our goal of sustainable growth in the coming years." He promised pharmaceutical sales would grow about 12% annually between 2002 and 2004 and that earnings as a percent of sales would exceed 25%. Sales in 2001 were up nearly 10% to $16.9 billion, and earnings came in at 22% of sales.

Richard J. Markham, vice chairman, said the company had four products now on the market with the potential to become blockbusters by 2006. However, 40 other projects, 10 of which are in late-stage development, are not likely to add to sales growth until 2006.

Because Aventis has no near-term blockbusters, it will need to license drugs from others or make acquisitions if it is to keep its sales and profit targets, says Neil Hansen, senior pharmaceutical analyst at London-based information specialist Datamonitor. And it can do so. The $5.4 billion that the company received from the sale of its Crop-Science business to Bayer will make it possible to license new drugs and boost near-term revenues, Landau pointed out.



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