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ECONOMY
There may finally be some good economic news, if the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) measure of economic activity continues the way it went in November.
The highly regarded index is used mainly to measure the pace of economic growth. An index of more than 50% shows growth, and less than 50% indicates contraction. Thus, the increase does not mean that the economy was better in November than in any month in almost 20 years. Rather, it means essentially that respondents to ISM's monthly survey saw much more improvement in economic activity than in any other month in that period. The chemical industry helped out in two of the five indicators used to make up the index. It was one of 16 industries reporting higher new orders in November and one of 20 industries reporting higher production. It was not one of the industries named as showing improvement in employment, supplier deliveries, or inventories. Norbert J. Ore, chair of ISM, says of the report: "Based on this data, it appears that the recovery is gaining momentum. Indications are that the manufacturing sector is ending 2003 on a very positive note, and all of the indexes support continued strength into 2004." Most chemical analysts and economists agree. But they predict that while chemical production will rise next year, the increase in output will lag growth in gross domestic product. Economists at the American Chemistry Council, for instance, predict 4.3% overall GDP growth in 2004, while they expect chemical production will grow just 3.3%. |
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