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Article

Mortality from Ship Emissions: A Global Assessment

Supporting Info

James J. Corbett*^†, James J. Winebrake^‡, Erin H. Green^‡, Prasad Kasibhatla, Veronika Eyring and Axel Lauer

College of Marine and Earth Studies, University of Delaware, 305 Robinson Hall, Newark, Delaware 19716, Department of STS/Public Policy, Rochester Institute of Technology, 1356 Eastman, Rochester, New York 14623, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Box 90328, Durham, North Carolina 22708, and Deutches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) DLR-Institute fuer Physik der Atmosphaere, Oberpfaffenhofen, Wessling, Germany

Environ. Sci. Technol., 2007, 41 (24), pp 8512–8518

DOI: 10.1021/es071686z

Publication Date (Web): November 5, 2007

* Corresponding author phone: (302) 831-0768; e-mail: jcorbett@udel.edu.

†

University of Delaware.

‡

Rochester Institute of Technology.

Duke University.

DLR-Institute fuer Physik der Atmosphaere.

Abstract

Epidemiological studies consistently link ambient concentrations of particulate matter (PM) to negative health impacts, including asthma, heart attacks, hospital admissions, and premature mortality. We model ambient PM concentrations from oceangoing ships using two geospatial emissions inventories and two global aerosol models. We estimate global and regional mortalities by applying ambient PM increases due to ships to cardiopulmonary and lung cancer concentration-risk functions and population models. Our results indicate that shipping-related PM emissions are responsible for approximately 60,000 cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths annually, with most deaths occurring near coastlines in Europe, East Asia, and South Asia. Under current regulation and with the expected growth in shipping activity, we estimate that annual mortalities could increase by 40% by 2012.

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