Policy Analysis

Scientists’ Views about Attribution of Global Warming

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands
Energy Research Centre of The Netherlands ECN, PO Box 1, 1755 ZG Petten, The Netherlands
§ University of Queensland, 4072 Brisbane QLD 4072, Australia
University of Western Australia, Crawley Washington 6009, Australia
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), PO Box 201, 3730 AE De Bilt, The Netherlands
Environ. Sci. Technol., 2014, 48 (16), pp 8963–8971
DOI: 10.1021/es501998e
Publication Date (Web): July 22, 2014
Copyright © 2014 American Chemical Society
*Phone: +31 20 525 8271; e-mail: Verheggen.Bart@gmail.com.
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Abstract

Abstract Image

Results are presented from a survey held among 1868 scientists studying various aspects of climate change, including physical climate, climate impacts, and mitigation. The survey was unique in its size, broadness and level of detail. Consistent with other research, we found that, as the level of expertise in climate science grew, so too did the level of agreement on anthropogenic causation. 90% of respondents with more than 10 climate-related peer-reviewed publications (about half of all respondents), explicitly agreed with anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) being the dominant driver of recent global warming. The respondents’ quantitative estimate of the GHG contribution appeared to strongly depend on their judgment or knowledge of the cooling effect of aerosols. The phrasing of the IPCC attribution statement in its fourth assessment report (AR4)—providing a lower limit for the isolated GHG contribution—may have led to an underestimation of the GHG influence on recent warming. The phrasing was improved in AR5. We also report on the respondents’ views on other factors contributing to global warming; of these Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) was considered the most important. Respondents who characterized human influence on climate as insignificant, reported having had the most frequent media coverage regarding their views on climate change.

The Supporting Information contains background information on the following topics: Aggregating fields of expertise, comparison between tagged and self-declared fields of expertise, attribution, consensus, contribution of other factors to warming, aerosol cooling versus GHG warming, climate sensitivity, and media exposure. This material is available free of charge via the Internet at http://pubs.acs.org.

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Received 25 April 2014
Accepted 22 July 2014
Published online 22 July 2014
Published in print 19 August 2014