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Policy Analysis

Intercontinental Impacts of Ozone Pollution on Human Mortality

Susan Casper Anenberg^†, J. Jason West*^†, Arlene M. Fiore^‡, Daniel A. Jaffe^§, Michael J. Prather, Daniel Bergmann, Kees Cuvelier^#, Frank J. Dentener^#, Bryan N. Duncan, Michael Gauss ^&, Peter Hess ^¶, Jan Eiof Jonson⁺, Alexandru Lupu, Ian A. MacKenzie^●, Elina Marmer^#, Rokjin J. Park^▲, Michael G. Sanderson, Martin Schultz^$, Drew T. Shindell^β, Sophie Szopa^&, Marta Garcia Vivanco⁺, Oliver Wild^ε and Guang Zeng^@

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, University of Washington-Bothell, Bothell, Washington, University of California, Irvine, California, Atmospheric Science Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, California, European Commission, DG-Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Maryland, Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Norway, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway, Center for Research in Earth and Space Science, York University, Canada, School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, U.K., Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling Group, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, U.K., ICG-2, Forschungszentrum-Jülich, Germany, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University, New York, New York, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ/IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, France, CIEMAT, Madrid, Spain, Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, U.K., and National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, U.K.

Environ. Sci. Technol., 2009, 43 (17), pp 6482–6487

DOI: 10.1021/es900518z

Publication Date (Web): August 10, 2009

* Corresponding author phone: 919-843-3928; fax: 919-966-7911; e-mail: jasonwest@unc.edu., †

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

, ‡

NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.

, §

University of Washington-Bothell.

University of California, Irvine.

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

, #

European Commission, DG-Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability.

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

University of Oslo.

, &

Norwegian Meteorological Institute.

National Center for Atmospheric Research.

, ¶

Cornell University.

, +

Norwegian Meteorological Institute.

York University.

, ●

University of Edinburgh.

, ▲

Harvard University; now at Seoul National University, Korea.

Met Office Hadley Centre.

, $

ICG-2.

, β

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University.

, &

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ/IPSL.

, +

CIEMAT.

, ε

Lancaster Environment Centre.

, @

University of Cambridge; now at National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd., Lauder, New Zealand.

Section:

Air Pollution and Industrial Hygiene

Abstract

Ozone exposure is associated with negative health impacts, including premature mortality. Observations and modeling studies demonstrate that emissions from one continent influence ozone air quality over other continents. We estimate the premature mortalities avoided from surface ozone decreases obtained via combined 20% reductions of anthropogenic nitrogen oxide, nonmethane volatile organic compound, and carbon monoxide emissions in North America (NA), East Asia (EA), South Asia (SA), and Europe (EU). We use estimates of ozone responses to these emission changes from several atmospheric chemical transport models combined with a health impact function. Foreign emission reductions contribute approximately 30%, 30%, 20%, and >50% of the mortalities avoided by reducing precursor emissions in all regions together in NA, EA, SA, and EU, respectively. Reducing emissions in NA and EU avoids more mortalities outside the source region than within, owing in part to larger populations in foreign regions. Lowering the global methane abundance by 20% reduces mortality most in SA, followed by EU, EA, and NA. For some source−receptor pairs, there is greater uncertainty in our estimated avoided mortalities associated with the modeled ozone responses to emission changes than with the health impact function parameters.

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