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Timing of Increased Autistic Disorder Cumulative Incidence
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Abstract
Autistic disorder (AD) is a severe neurodevelopmental disorder typically identified in early childhood. Both genetic and environmental factors are implicated in its etiology. The number of individuals identified as having autism has increased dramatically in recent years, but whether some proportion of this increase is real is unknown. If real, susceptible populations may have exposure to controllable exogenous stressors. Using literature AD data from long-term (
10-year) studies, we determined cumulative incidence of AD for each cohort within each study. These data for each study were examined for a changepoint year in which the AD cumulative incidence first increased. We used data sets from Denmark, California, Japan, and a worldwide composite of studies. In the Danish, California, and worldwide data sets, we found that an increase in AD cumulative incidence began about 1988−1989. The Japanese study (1988−1996) had AD cumulative incidence increasing continuously, and no changepoint year could be calculated. Although the debate about the nature of increasing autism continues, the potential for this increase to be real and involve exogenous environmental stressors exists. The timing of an increase in autism incidence may help in screening for potential candidate environmental stressors.
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This article has been cited by 2 ACS Journal articles (2 most recent appear below).
Comment on “Timing of Increased Autistic Disorder Cumulative Incidence”
Matthew J. CareyEnvironmental Science & Technology2012 46 (3), 1948-1949Comment on “Timing of Increased Autistic Disorder Cumulative Incidence”
Matthew J. CareyEnvironmental Science & Technology2012 46 (3), 1948-1949
Response to Comment on “Timing of Increased Autistic Disorder Cumulative Incidence”
Michael E. McDonald and John F. PaulEnvironmental Science & Technology2012 46 (3), 1950-1951Response to Comment on “Timing of Increased Autistic Disorder Cumulative Incidence”
Michael E. McDonald and John F. PaulEnvironmental Science & Technology2012 46 (3), 1950-1951
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History
- Published In Issue March 15, 2010
- Article ASAPFebruary 16, 2010
- Received: July 10, 2009
Accepted: January 28, 2010
Revised: January 28, 2010
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