Prev. Article Next Article Table of Contents

Policy Analysis

Forecasting Global Generation of Obsolete Personal Computers

Jinglei Yu^†, Eric Williams*^‡, Meiting Ju^† and Yan Yang^‡

Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nankai University, Tianjin, 300071, P.R. China, and School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment and the School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona 85287

Environ. Sci. Technol., 2010, 44 (9), pp 3232–3237

DOI: 10.1021/es903350q

Publication Date (Web): March 22, 2010

* Corresponding author phone: (480)727-6259; fax: (480) 965-0557; e-mail: ericwilliams@asu.edu., †

Nankai University.

, ‡

Arizona State University.

Abstract

Electronic waste (e-waste) has emerged as a new policy priority around the world. Motivations to address e-waste include rapidly growing waste streams, concern over the environmental fate of heavy metals and other substances in e-waste, and impacts of informal recycling in developing countries. Policy responses to global e-waste focus on banning international trade in end-of-life electronics, the premise being that e-waste is mainly generated in the developed world and then exported to the developing world. Sales of electronics have, however, been growing rapidly in developing nations, raising the question of whether informal recycling in developing countries driven by international trade or domestic generation. This paper addresses this question by forecasting the global generation of obsolete personal computers (PCs) using the logistic model and material flow analysis. Results show that the volume of obsolete PCs generated in developing regions will exceed that of developed regions by 2016−2018. By 2030, the obsolete PCs from developing regions will reach 400−700 million units, far more than from developed regions at 200−300 million units. Future policies to mitigate the impacts of informal recycling should address the domestic situation in developing countries.

View: Full Text HTML | Hi-Res PDF | PDF w/ Links

Citing Articles

View all 6 citing articles

Citation data is made available by participants in CrossRef's Cited-by Linking service. For a more comprehensive list of citations to this article, users are encouraged to perform a search in SciFinder.

This article has been cited by 1 ACS Journal articles (1 most recent appear below).

Multilateral Environmental Agreements for Wastes and Chemicals: 40 Years of Global Negotiations
Sotiria Koloutsou-Vakakis and Indu Chinta
Environmental Science & Technology2011 45 (1), 10-15
- Multilateral Environmental Agreements for Wastes and Chemicals: 40 Years of Global Negotiations
  Sotiria Koloutsou-Vakakis and Indu Chinta
  Environmental Science & Technology2011 45 (1), 10-15
  Abstract | Full Text HTML | Hi-Res PDF | PDF w/ Links