Last year at this time, C&EN said: "Although 1995 was excellent for the worldwide chemical industry, it may be the last good year in the current recovery. Next year may see the end of massive run-ups in sales, earnings, demand, proces, and exports, if industry analysts are correct."
Every once in a while, predictions turn out to be right. And, in this case, ours did. This year has been marked by slower growth rates in most sectors of the chemical world, although in the Asia-Pacific region, despite slowing economic growth, the percentages were still high.
Now for next year. Among industry analysts, the general belief is that growth in the chemical industry in 1997 will not show much of a rebound, if any, from 1996 rates.
Within North America, the U.S. industry will see very modest growth as the economy is held in check. Canada expects a slight strengthening next year after seeing chemical prices and shipments drop this year. Mexico, alone among the three major chemical-producing North American countries, is seeing strong domestic demand and expansion of trade as it boosts its chemical trade with its NAFTA partners, the U.S. and Canada; as well as countries in South America.
In Europe this year, a hoped-for expansion in the chemical economy eluded producers, but they are hoping that strengthening exports in the latter part of the year and improving general economic conditions in many European countries will carry over into 1997.
And in the Asia-Pacific region, although growth is expected to slow, it is from very heady levels in most countries, excepting Japan. And analysts see chemical demand continuing to outstrip the region's production capacity in petrochemicals, which should virtually guarantee strong pricing and good profitability in the region for some time.
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