C&EN Washington

Come midnight on Dec. 31, there are likely to be a lot of sweaty palms in the chemical industry. That's when the so-called year-2000 (Y2K) problem hits home.

The fear is that there will be widespread malfunctions of date-sensitive software and hardware, particularly embedded computer chips that are an important part of chemical process control, security, and safety systems. The crashes are possible because many internal clocks in computer systems, particularly some built in the 1970s and '80s, often used only two digits to designate the year in order to conserve what was then expensive computer memory space. When these systems are confronted with a "99" rolling over to a "00," what happens next is unknown. Some tests are showing big problems for some key systems.

It is not just the chemical industry's problem. Rumors swirl that ships will be blocked from entering ports, airports may close, subways won't run.

In Washington, D.C., for example, a huge millennium celebration will be held on the National Mall that night, which is expected to be the largest party ever for the city, says Donald McCanless, chief information officer for the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority. The city's subway is totally computerized and is being scrutinized for Y2K problems. But searching out Y2K bugs is tough. The subway's control systems--like those of chemical companies--have been modified, reprogrammed, added to, and partially replaced over the years. And each time a change was made, a piece of equipment with a time-sensitive chip may have been added or a software programmer may have tossed in a date along with other instructions.

So McCanless says the subway's managers are strongly considering just shutting the system down a few minutes before midnight and then restarting it--hopefully--a few minutes after that special date, simply to be safe.

Shutdowns are among options planned by chemical companies, too, according to a Y2K national meeting in mid-December organized by the Chemical Safety & Hazard Investigation Board (CSHIB) in Washington, D.C. More than 50 experts from around the country attended and their views will be included in a report to a special Senate Y2K Committee later this month.

Along with searching for answers, the meeting demonstrated that a cottage industry of consultants and business and industrial Y2K experts has recently sprouted up--from new information technology positions in companies, the Environmental Protection Agency, and the Occupational Safety & Health Administration to new consulting firms with names like the Center for Y2K in Society, and Shakespeare & Tao Consulting.

Overall, the discussion at the meeting revealed that big chemical companies are taking significant steps to keep possible accidents or economic disasters at bay, but the top question on these experts' minds was: What about the small- and medium-sized companies? With resources stretched thin, how much time and money can they devote to a problem that could spell trouble or might not amount to much?

But potential Y2K problems are pervasive. With the growth of computerized control systems--especially in the chemical industry--computer chips are embedded in a host of automatic equipment that controls pumps, valves, safety alarms, plant security, and other plant systems and devices as well as equipment used by emergency responders.

Gerald V. Poje, CSHIB board member and organizer of the meeting, estimated that 1 to 3\ of some 50 billion embedded chips worldwide are subject to Y2K problems and some 25 million mission-critical systems may have problems. For the chemical industry, Poje predicts that 70 to 90\ of work to correct Y2K difficulties must be directed to these embedded systems.

Exchanges at the meeting revealed that even chemical companies that are actively addressing the problem may have underestimated its depth.

A sample audit by Y2K consultants done for Occidental Chemical, for example, found 10-times more systems with potential Y2K problems than the company's own engineers had found, said Daniel Daley, corporate maintenance director. In the end, Daley said, OxyChem found about 30,000 embedded devices at 40 plants.

Both Daley and Jordan Corn of Rohm and Haas described major investigations under way at their companies. Corn estimated that about 7\ of his company's systems required some sort of remediation, but he added that the company had yet to find problems that would lead to catastrophic failures.

"This doesn't mean there aren't any," he said. "It's just that we haven't found them."

At an OxyChem ethylene plant, a company inventory found 3,500 devices, Daley said, noting that if the 7\ figure holds, some 200 systems or devices may require corrective action, which is far beyond the control of an operator.

Not all of these systems may turn out to have problems, he added, but "it is kind of like a million bee stings. The bee stings are going to kill you as fast as a .357 [bullet] in the heart."

Rohm and Haas, Corn said, intends to keep its plants fully staffed at midnight but may shut down all processes shortly beforehand and restart them soon after.

The combination of incidents also worries Angela E. Summers, director of Premier Consulting & Engineering, a division of Triconex in LaMarque, Texas. "I don't want to pique this because it is an overly dramatic occurrence," she said. "But in order for Bhopal to occur, 13 things went wrong, not one."

Summers warned the panel that, for some companies she has worked with, the probability of some sort of Y2K failure is high.

In an interview, she notes that the question will become whether the system "fails dangerously" and the process goes out of control and the safety system either doesn't recognize it or can't respond adequately, or if it "fails safely" and a shutdown results in a costly loss of production and a possibly dangerous start-up but no accident.

The problems, she emphasizes, could run the gamut from unopenable doors to a plant that can't be shut down during an emergency.

The chemical industry is getting worried, she says. Her company, which sells and services computers for process-control central systems, is receiving 30 calls or more a week from customers concerned about Y2K problems.

"This is a tremendous increase over last year," she says. "They are asking if our computer is compliant with Y2K safety standards, which it is, but they are also asking if our phone and beeper systems are compliant and if we will be working at midnight."

Similarly, Daley said OxyChem is getting "thousands of customer inquiries." Of particular concern, he said, are interactions with customers and suppliers due to possible Y2K accidents that might "back up into our plant."

The CSHIB panel's consensus was that the country's focus should be on helping smaller companies, but what help they get is more likely to come from industry than it is from Uncle Sam.

Speaking at the meeting, John A. Koskinen, chairman of the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, presented a busy image of his office's Y2K outreach throughout the federal government and some key sectors of the economy. However, the chemical sector is not among them.

His council has turned to EPA to lead the effort, and he is encouraging EPA to work through trade associations.

However, EPA has been given few resources to conduct an outreach program and no special authority to encourage companies to make Y2K investigations. Its role is to "beg, borrow, and cajole," says Don Flattery, EPA sector outreach coordinator for the Y2K project team.

Among actions EPA has taken, Flattery says, is a recent decision not to enforce possible permit violations caused by Y2K testing, a warning to several industrial sectors that they must continue to collect accurate data despite possible Y2K problems, and a letter to 66,000 companies that they must consider Y2K issues when preparing risk management plans, which are due in June (C&EN, Dec. 7, 1998, page 36).

However, actual outreach to the industry has been slow. EPA has contacted the Chemical Manufacturers Association (CMA) and other trade associations and is planning industry outreach meetings in Massachusetts, California, and New York. The agency also created a "tool kit," providing advice to companies and examples of other companies' approaches.

Flattery describes a complex situation in which EPA is hobbled by its role as a regulator, although in this instance it has no inclination, time, or authority to use regulations to encourage Y2K compliance. CMA has been off to a slow start, he said.

In response, CMA officials say they have been conducting a Y2K member survey and will hold a member meeting Jan. 26-27.

Flattery says: "We've told CMA that we both are going to be summoned to a congressional hearing and we will have to assess where we are. In a not so subtle way, we have said either you do this voluntarily or it will be elicited from you at a congressional forum."

But no hearing dates have been set for such a forum, according to Don Meyer, Senate committee spokesman, noting the Senate is busy with politics and impeachment proceedings.

But, like Flattery, Meyer warns that the committee will be tough, "demanding to know where companies are on contingency planning and as time marches on, what companies are going to do if they have a system failure."

Although no CMA staff attended the CSHIB meeting, staff from many chemical companies did, several of whom are on CMA's Y2K work group. In fact, only one chemical industry trade association did attend--the Chlorine Institute.

Bob Smerko, Chlorine Institute president, announced that he would use a members-only web site to transmit Y2K information and examples, including a chat room or bulletin board. The institute also is conducting a survey among its 100-plus members, which includes a wide range of chlorine makers and users.

The question of how to reach out to small companies remains. Smerko warned against regulations, saying they "will only make them angry," although several meeting participants said some formal regulatory requirement is needed to get corporate attention.

Summers urged Poje to include in CSHIB's report a recommendation that Congress quickly provide tax or other incentives to encourage small companies to initiate Y2K programs.

No matter what path is selected, it better come quick. There is not much time left on the Y2K clock.

Chemical & Engineering News
Copyright © 1999 American Chemical Society