Michael Heylin

C&EN Washington

As they did last year, results from the annual survey of the sal- ary and employment status of American Chemical Society members present something of an enigma this year.

On the one hand, data from the 1999 survey reveal unusually large salary increases for chemical professionals, as did last year's survey. The year-to-year percentage increase in the median salary of all survey respondents this year was 4.6%. This is three times the rise in the cost of living for the past year, which was 1.7%. The magnitude of this difference is surprising. But it is not out of line with the strong and prolonged growth in the overall U.S. economy--growth that is still generating more concern about keeping it from overheating than about any signs of a slowdown.

On the other hand, this year's data indicate, as did last year's, a rate of unemployment among chemists still substantially closer to its historic high than to its historic low. This is something not readily explained at a time when the unemployment rate for the entire U.S. workforce is at its lowest level in a generation.

In bare-bones terms, the median salary for chemists with full-time jobs responding to this year's survey was $68,000. And 2.3% of those in the chemical workforce were jobless but looking for employment. The chemical workforce consists of chemists with a full- or part-time job, those on a postdoc or fellowship, or those who are unemployed but seeking a job.

The $68,000 median salary is up from $65,000 for the 1998 survey. This, in turn, was up 3.2% from the $63,000 for 1997, adding up to an increase of 7.9% for the two years. The increase is well in excess of the 3.1% gain in the Consumer Price Index for the same two-year period. These salaries are as of March 1 each year. They represent the base salaries from the principal full-time job of chemists. Bonuses, consulting fees, and other professional income are analyzed separately.

Table: Individual chemists post a median salary gain of 4.8%

A median salary is that which is equaled or exceeded by one-half of the sample. Using medians avoids the distortion that a few very high salaries can bring to means.

This big differential between sal-ary increases and rate of inflation for the past two years contrasts with the long-term pattern of only a small advantage for salary increases. Over the previous eight years (1989-97), the median salary reported by the ACS surveys rose at an average rate of 3.6% per year while the Consumer Price Index moved up almost in lockstep at 3.4% per year. This is not unexpected, as the surveys measure the median salary for a large and long-established population with demographics that change relatively little from year to year.

Table: Median Salary for chemists as a group rose substantially faster than inflation for third year

The 2.3% unemployment rate among chemists this year is the same as it was in 1998. This is down from the historic high rate of 3.0%--most recently in 1996, a particularly poor year for chemical employment. However, at 2.3%, today's unemployment rate remains substantially higher than its historic low of 1.0% during times of healthy demand for chemists, such as, most recently, the late 1980s.

Unemployment rates of chemists as measured each year by the ACS surveys are probably consistently low in absolute terms. This is because those without jobs are less likely to return the survey questionnaire. However, these rates have been measured the same way by ACS for many years. They track trends in the employment situation quite accurately and they imply that in really bad times between two and three times as many chemists are unemployed and looking for work as in good times.

The survey

This year's survey is based on 10,605 responses to 20,951 questionnaires sent to a random sample of the 100,000 or so ACS members who reside in the U.S., are less than 70 years old, and are not classified by the society as emeritus, retired, or student members. This is a response rate of 51%. Last year's survey, which included an additional major section on fringe benefits, had a response rate of 45%.

Periodically, ACS surveys the entire population of 100,000 qualified members to obtain more definitive data, especially on subgroups of the chemist community. The last time was in 1995; the next time will be next year.

Of those responding this year, 281 were fully retired and another 133 were unemployed but not seeking employment. Because people in these categories are not in the workforce, they are excluded from the analyses of employment status.

The total of 9,760 chemists who responded to this year's survey was up substantially from the 8,750 who did so last year. This is the first upturn in several years. Another 457 of this year's respondents had their highest degree in chemical engineering.

The demographics of this year's chemist respondents reveal continuation of one evolutionary trend. The percentage of women was 23.2%, up from 21.9% last year and 18.0% in 1991. Other demographic data were essentially unchanged from last year.

By race this year, 84.7% of respondents were white, 10.9% Asian, 1.8% black, 0.3% American Indian, and 2.3% identified as other. In answer to a separate question, 2.2% of the respondents identified themselves as Hispanic.

By employment, the profile of this year's respondents was 62.7% work-ing in industry, 25.8% in academia or high-school teaching, 7.4% with government jobs, and 4.1% in other nonacademic positions. By highest degree, 59.9% had Ph.D.s, 22.7% had bachelor's degrees, 16.5% had master's degrees, and 0.9% had other degrees. By citizenship, 80.2% were U.S. natives, 9.0% naturalized Americans, 7.8% permanent residents, and 3.0% on nonpermanent visas.

The median age of all chemist re spondents this year was 44, the same as last year. Those in industry were younger, with a median of 42, as were women, with a median of 39. Also with a median age of 39 were bachelor's degree chemists and those working for small organizations with 50 to 99 employees.

Table: In industry, salary of women chemists starts to trail that of men after age 40

All of ACS's salary and employment studies and surveys are conducted by senior research analyst Mary W. Jordan of the society's Department of Career Services under the general supervision of the Committee on Economic & Professional Affairs. A full report, "Salaries '99" will be available this fall for $150 per copy from the American Chemical Society, Office of Society Services, 1155--16th St., N.W., Washington, DC 20036; phone (800) 227-5588 or (202) 872-4600. Questions on the substance of the reports should be directed to Jordan by calling (202) 872-4433 or by e-mail atm_jordan@acs.org.

Salaries

Interpretation of increases in chemists' salaries calculated by comparing medians from surveys using different samples and taken one year apart should always be approached with caution. This method involves determining a relatively small number (the year-to-year increase) by subtracting one much larger number from another (the annual medians as actually measured). Hence any perturbation in either of the medians can significantly change the size of the apparent increase. Results can be quite erratic for subgroups of the chemist population.

A sample of these variations is the salary increases this year for B.S. chemists obtained by subtracting corresponding medians from last year's survey from the medians for this year's survey. For all B.S. respondents, the apparent gain is only 1.0%. For B.S. chemists working in industry, the apparent gain is 2.4%. For those with government jobs, the gain is 10.4%. And the median salary for the relatively few B.S. chemists in academia is down by an apparent 3.5%. In contrast, the apparent year-to-year gain for M.S. chemists with gov ernment jobs is 16.0% and for M.S. chemists in academia it is 11.6%.

However, the generally strong overall upward trend in the apparent salary gains obtained by comparing all 1999 and 1998 survey data leaves no reason to doubt that the salaries of working chemists as a group have moved up substantially during the past year.

One piece of independent supporting evidence is the recent very sharp increase in the starting salaries of new chemistry graduates at all degree levels. These are measured by ACS's annual starting salary surveys (C&EN, March 1, page 14).

The starting salary for Ph.D. chemists graduating during the 1997-98 academic year was $59,300. This was up from $45,000 for those graduating two years earlier. It would not seem unreasonable to assume that such a boost at the entry level could well have a ripple effect up through the community of working chemists.

Table: Ph.D.s at small firms earn a lot less

More confirmation of the upward trend in chemists' salaries comes from answers to the survey question that asks individual respondents for their salary as of March 1 of both the current year and the previous year. The increases obtained in this manner are more consistent and reliable because the data for the two years come from same set of respondents.

For this year, the median increase for all respondents obtained this way was 4.8%. For B.S. chemists it was 5.3%, and for both M.S. and Ph.D. chemists it was 4.7%. For those in industry it was 5.0%, and for those in both government and academia, 4.2%. Following an established pattern, increases decline with age, from 9.2% for those age 20-29 to 3.7% for those age 60-69. These data show little change from the increases reported in the 1998 survey.

Other data that are indirectly supportive of the strong upward kick in chemists' salaries in general over the past two years come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. According to the bureau, average weekly earnings for the U.S. workforce fell, in constant 1982 dollars, from $264.77 in March 1989 to $260.04 in March 1997. Since then, they have risen 4.3% to reach $271.11 in March of this year.

Sidebar: Chemical engineers continue to hold salary edge at B.S. level

The bureau's data on the average hourly earnings of production workers show a similar turnaround. Between March 1989 and March 1997, hourly earnings rose, in current-dollar terms, by an average of 2.8% per year. This was significantly below the 3.4% annual inflation rate. In the two years since then, up to March 1999, average earnings have moved up 9.3% while the Consumer Price Index has gained only 3.1%. This all means that some of the wealth generated during the present unprecedented long boom for the U.S. economy is filtering down to wage earners--including chemists.

Table: Median salary for full professors at Ph.D. schools exceeds $100,000

This year's salary data confirm the well-established profile of chemists' salaries:

 Industrial chemists earn substantially more than chemists in academia at all degree levels throughout their careers. Pay for chemists with government jobs falls in between. However, full professors earn salaries comparable to those paid by industry. The overall median for academics is pulled down by the low salaries for junior faculty and support staff.

Table: Salary edge for industrial chemists over those in government and academia is persistent

 Women chemists at all degree levels earn about the same as equally qualified male colleagues for about the first five to 10 years of their careers. After that, a widening salary gap develops as men pull ahead. And there are still relatively few older women chemists in the workforce.

 The differential between the median salaries of industrial chemists in the top and bottom 10th percentiles increases steadily with age and experience. For those early in their careers, the top group earns about 60% more. For those above age 50, the advantage is more than 100%.

Table: Salary difference between highest and lowest paid chemists increase steadily with age

 It is difficult to be precise about the impact of geography on chemists' salaries. But chemists in New England, the Middle Atlantic area, the Midwest, and the West Coast seem to have an edge--probably for reasons unrelated to chemistry--such as regional differences in the cost of living.

 For chemists in industry, the best salaries are in management, with applied research and production work trailing.

Just over 10% of the chemists with full-time jobs responding to this year's survey earned additional money from consulting during calendar-year 1998. Academic chemists were the most likely to do so, 25%, and those working in industry the least likely, 5%. For chemists employed by government, it was 6%.

The median extra income for industrial chemists who consulted was $6,000. For academics, the extra income was $4,000, and for government chemists, almost $2,900.

Industrial chemists have a distinct edge when it comes to bonuses. Of working industrial chemists responding to this year's survey, 67% report they were eligible for a bonus during 1998. Of these, 92% claim they got one. The median was $5,000--the same as for all chemists who received bonuses.

Relatively few nonindustrial chemists receive bonuses. Only 32% of government chemists and 9% of academic chemists responding to the survey indicate they were eligible. Of these, 82% of the government chemists and 81% of the academics actually received them.

Employment

The employment status of chemists has changed very little in the past two years. Not only did the unemployment rate hold at 2.3% this year, the percentage of chemists with full-time jobs held at 92.9%. This year, those employed part time moved up to 2.7% from 2.5%, while those on postdoctoral or other fellowships dipped slightly from 2.3% to 2.1%.

Table: More than 7% of chemists have other than full-time jobs, up from less than 5% 10 years ago

The total of 7.1% with other than full-time jobs for both this year and last compares with the recent highs of 8.9% in 1995 and 8.5% in 1996 and the low of 4.7% in 1989 and 1990.

Table: Almost 93% of chemists in the workforce have full-time jobs, another 2.7% work part time, and 2.1% are on postdocs

According to the latest survey, 5.7% of chemist respondents were unemployed at some time during 1998. This also shows essentially no change. In last year's survey, 5.8% indicated they were unemployed at some time during 1997. Following a traditional pattern, more women, 6.8%, than men, 5.3%, were unemployed during 1998.

This overall pattern of a somewhat soft employment situation for chemists is puzzling in light of the strong economy, the low overall unemployment rate, and the improving job and sal-ary situation for new graduates at all degree levels entering the chemical workforce.

However, for chemists, these positive factors are apparently being offset by some quite negative ones:

 The chemical industry has not really joined the current economic boom that started in 1992. In the last quarter of 1998, sales, earnings, production, and product prices were all down from year-earlier levels for the major chemical producers that C&EN follows closely (C&EN, Feb. 15, page 29). For all of last year, the companies' combined earnings were down by 10%. The first quarter of this year brought no real improvement (C&EN, May 17, page 18), and the second quarter is not expected to be much better.

 The chemical industry is still involved in a wave of mergers and restructurings--moves that often involve substantial personnel reductions (C&EN, June 21, page 15).

 The pharmaceutical industry, another major employer of chemists, remains highly profitable. But it, too, is having its mergers and its recruiting activities this year may be slightly less intense than they were last year.

Another possibly important factor affecting unemployment among chemists is the persistence of early separations or retirements for chemists--either voluntary or involuntary. Many such chemists stay in the workforce as they seek new positions. This is something that is not easy for older chemists to do, especially when the chemical jobs potentially available are in, to them, new fields.

There is also more churning in the employment market--hence more chemists that are between jobs at any one time--as the old ideal of a one-em ployer career becomes ever more unrealistic as a goal or expectation for chemical professionals.

ACS is seeking a better understanding of these and other employment-related factors in a very detailed study it has under way of the career statusof members who are 50 years old or older.

For whatever reason or combination of reasons, during the past decade chemists have lost a lot of the advantage they traditionally held--at least according to statistics--in the job market. In 1989, when ACS measured unemployment among its members at 1.0%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics put unemployment in its managerial and professional category at 2.0%. That gap had closed by 1994, and as of March 1 this year, the jobless rate of chemists at 2.3% exceeds the 1.9% jobless rate for the category.

In March 1989, the 1.0% unemployment rate for chemists was only one-fifth the 5.0% rate for the U.S. civilian workforce at that time. In March this year, the rate for chemists--2.3%--was considerably more than half the 4.2% for all workers.

Women chemists continue to do considerably less well than their male colleagues in the workplace. This year, 6.1% of men, but 10.0% of women chemists in the workforce, had less than full-time jobs. Women were much more likely to have part-time jobs, 5.0%, than were men, 2.0%, and were slightly more likely to be unemployed, 2.6% versus 2.2%.

Minorities also were less likely to have full-time jobs--89.9% versus 93.6% for nonminorities. But this difference is mostly the result of the relatively large number of minorities with postdoctoral positions. Of this year's 197 respondents who were postdocs, a majority--101--were minorities, largely Asian. Of this 101, only 13 were U.S. citizens. Of the 197 postdocs, 76 were U.S. citizens, including the 13 minorities. In percentage terms, 6.1% of minority chemists responding to this year's survey were postdocs. This compares with 1.3% of nonminorities.

By degree, unemployment is slightly higher among B.S. degree chemists, at 2.6%. This compares with 2.3% of those with an M.S. degree and 2.2% of Ph.D.s. By last employer, industrial chemists were more prone to unemployment, at 2.6%. This compares with 1.3% for academia and 1.9% for government chemists. Within industry, managers, especially general managers, were the least likely to be unemployed. Joblessness also varies by region from 1.2% to 3.4%. However, because of the relatively small sample from some regions, the significance of this range is uncertain.

Table: Industrial chemists most likely to be jobless, academics least likely

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Copyright © 1999 American Chemical Society