ACS Publications. Most Trusted. Most Cited. Most Read
My Activity
CONTENT TYPES

Figure 1Loading Img

Ballast Water Exchange Plus Treatment Lowers Species Invasion Rate in Freshwater Ecosystems

  • Johanna N. Bradie
    Johanna N. Bradie
    Great Lakes Laboratory for Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 867 Lakeshore Road, Burlington, Ontario L7S 1A1, Canada
  • David Andrew R. Drake
    David Andrew R. Drake
    Great Lakes Laboratory for Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 867 Lakeshore Road, Burlington, Ontario L7S 1A1, Canada
  • Dawson Ogilvie
    Dawson Ogilvie
    Great Lakes Laboratory for Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 867 Lakeshore Road, Burlington, Ontario L7S 1A1, Canada
  • Oscar Casas-Monroy
    Oscar Casas-Monroy
    Great Lakes Laboratory for Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 867 Lakeshore Road, Burlington, Ontario L7S 1A1, Canada
  • , and 
  • Sarah A. Bailey*
    Sarah A. Bailey
    Great Lakes Laboratory for Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 867 Lakeshore Road, Burlington, Ontario L7S 1A1, Canada
    *Email: [email protected]
Cite this: Environ. Sci. Technol. 2021, 55, 1, 82–89
Publication Date (Web):December 16, 2020
https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.0c05238

Copyright © 2022 American Chemical Society. This publication is licensed under CC-BY-NC-ND.

  • Open Access

Article Views

2192

Altmetric

-

Citations

LEARN ABOUT THESE METRICS
PDF (2 MB)
Supporting Info (1)»

Abstract

The movement of ballast water by commercial shipping is a prominent pathway for aquatic invasions. Ships’ ballast water management is now transitioning from open ocean exchange to a ballast water performance standard that will effectively require use of onboard treatment systems. Neither strategy is perfect, therefore, combined use of ballast water exchange plus treatment has been suggested to provide greatest protection of aquatic ecosystems. This study compared the performance of exchange plus treatment against treatment alone by modeling establishment rates of nonindigenous zooplankton introduced by ballast water across different habitat types (fresh, brackish, and marine) in Canada. Treatment was modeled under two efficacy scenarios (100% and 50% of ship trips) to consider the possibility that treatment may not always be successful. The model results indicate that exchange plus treatment will be more effective than treatment alone at reducing establishments when recipient ports are freshwater (58 140 vs 11 338 trips until ≥1 establishment occurs, respectively). Exchange plus treatment also serves as an important backup strategy if treatment systems are partially effective (50% of trips), primarily for freshwater recipient ecosystems (1442 versus 585 trips until ≥1 establishment occurs, respectively).

Introduction

ARTICLE SECTIONS
Jump To

The movement of ballast water by commercial shipping is one of the most prominent pathways for the introduction of nonindigenous aquatic species. (1,2) In response, the International Convention for the Control and Management of Ships’ Ballast Water and Sediments (the Convention) was introduced, which sets a ballast water performance standard limiting the concentration of viable organisms in discharged ballast water (Regulation D-2). (3) More specifically, Regulation D-2 states that discharged ballast water must contain <10 viable organisms ≥50 μm in minimum dimension per m3, < 10 viable organisms <50 μm in minimum dimension and ≥10 μm in minimum dimension per mL, and also specifies maximum concentrations for indicator microbes. (3) After entering into force in September 2017, (4) the Convention is gradually being implemented around the world, with the expectation that reductions in biological introductions will be achieved by limiting the number of viable organisms in ballast water discharge.
Most ships will achieve the D-2 standard using an onboard ballast water management system (hereafter known as treatment), which usually consists of a filtration process (e.g., disc or screen filters) followed by one or more disinfection processes (e.g., electrolysis or ultraviolet radiation). (5) When equipment is functioning and operated properly, treatment systems can effectively reduce the concentration of viable organisms in ballast water. (6,7) However, species establishment risk may not be completely eliminated by achieving D-2, since the upper limit of this performance standard may equate to >100 000 viable zooplankton in ballast discharge from a single ship (assuming ballast capacity of at least 11 500 m3). In addition, shipboard studies have determined that treatment systems do not always function as expected, resulting in failure to meet the D-2 standard. (8,9) For example, in three shipboard trials examining treatment efficacy under operational conditions, only one appeared to meet D-2 limits for zooplankton, while one had abundances close to the limit and one had gross exceedance of the limit. (8) While failure to meet the D-2 standard may occur regularly during the early years of implementation of the Convention, the performance of treatment systems is expected to improve in the future with advancements in treatment technologies and as experience with their use is gained.
To protect aquatic systems, countries retain the right to introduce stronger regulations than those set by the Convention (Article 2.3). (3) Therefore, the Canadian Government has proposed the combined use of ballast water exchange plus treatment to potentially provide greater protection for fresh or brackish water ecosystems. (10) Ballast water exchange involves discharging ballast water at sea to expel organisms from ballast tanks and filling tanks with open ocean water to expose any residual organisms to saline water—if the initial ballast water originated from a freshwater or brackish port, the abrupt salinity change can be lethal to most freshwater and some coastal species. (11−13) Any open ocean species entrained during exchange are expected to have lower probability of survival if released into recipient fresh or brackish water ecosystems. (13) Given that exchange efficacy is partially dependent on environmental mismatch (e.g., changes in salinity and temperature), it is highly dependent on the degree of environmental correspondence between the source, exchange, and destination localities. (13,14) Ballast water exchange is considered to be most protective of freshwater ecosystems where the environmental mismatch effect is greatest, (11−13) and less protective of coastal ecosystems where the salinity mismatch is low. (14,15) It is thus expected that the benefit of an exchange plus treatment management strategy may not be consistent across regions.
Land-based and shipboard research on exchange plus treatment determined that the combined approach may benefit freshwater ecosystems by reducing the abundance of high-risk freshwater and euryhaline organisms in discharged ballast water. (8,16) Additionally, exchange plus treatment may provide greater reduction in the total abundance and diversity of certain taxonomic groups compared to treatment alone. (9,17) This past work focused on specific cause-and-effect relationships without assessing the linked, system-wide effects of a management measure. Estimating the species establishment rate under different ballast water management measures is a useful approach to evaluate the costs and benefits of management measures at scales suitable for decision-making.
The objective of this study was to compare the efficacy of exchange plus treatment to treatment alone across different recipient habitat types (i.e., fresh, brackish, and marine environments) in Canada. This study also considered the possibility that the desired level of treatment efficacy may not be achieved on a proportion of ship trips and determined the effect of using exchange as a backup strategy. The effectiveness of each management scenario was measured by estimating species establishment rates of nonindigenous zooplankton using a multistage mechanistic model. This model incorporated three main components of the invasion process: (1) estimating the number of nonindigenous zooplankton species and their concentrations (individuals/m3) in ballast water under each management scenario; (2) calculating the survival probability of these species in the recipient port; and, (3) predicting species establishment rates based on initial population sizes and per-capita establishment probabilities.

Methods

ARTICLE SECTIONS
Jump To

Management Scenarios and Establishment Rate Metrics

This analysis compared the outcome of six ballast water management scenarios, including (1) no management, (2) exchange, (3) partially effective treatment (meeting the D-2 limit on 50% of trips), (4) exchange plus partially effective treatment, (5) fully effective treatment (meeting the D-2 limit on 100% of trips), and (6) exchange plus fully effective treatment (see Modeling the Management Scenarios for details). We applied the management methods to trips of ships with ballast water arriving to fresh, brackish, or marine ports in Canada (Supporting Information (SI) Figure S1). Ports were classified as fresh (≤5.0 g/kg), brackish (5.1–18.0 g/kg), or marine (≥18.1 g/kg), depending on their mean annual salinity. The salinity thresholds were selected based on observed changes in community composition across a salinity gradient. (18) Salinity and temperature data were sourced from Keller et al. (19) and World Ocean Atlas 2013 Vol. 2, (20,21) with adjustments to correct salinity values of fresh and brackish water ports when calculated values did not match known measured values.
The effectiveness of each management scenario was measured as the estimated species establishment rate of nonindigenous zooplankton. Results were summarized using two relevant metrics of species establishment: (i) mean probability that ≥1 species establishes per trip; and, (ii) mean number of species establishing per year. To simplify the interpretation of the results, the probability of establishment per trip was converted to the number of trips until ≥1 species establishes. The number of trips until ≥1 species establishes reflects the species establishment risk of individual trips and is independent of shipping traffic volume. This metric was used to assess the establishment risk across fresh, brackish, and marine habitat types, since ship traffic volume varied across these habitat types. On the other hand, the species per year metric considers the cumulative effect of ship traffic volume on total establishments and was used to compare the model results to historical species discovery data in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence region.

Simulation of Shipping Traffic

Using available region-specific shipping data from 2006, 2008, or 2015, (22,23) we constructed a 1 year iteration of shipping activity at Canadian ports to quantify the frequency and spatial distribution of ballast water discharge events (n = 2980 trips; SI Table S1); while there can be fluctuations in the number of trips year to year, a 1 year iteration of shipping activity provides a standard time frame to model establishment rates across different regions. The shipping data included international ship transits to Canadian ports in the Pacific, Atlantic, Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River, and Arctic, as well as domestic ship transits to Canadian Arctic ports from Canadian ports in the Atlantic or Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River (SI Figure S1). The combinations of ship traffic types (international or domestic) and geographical regions are hereafter referenced as shipping pathways. The domestic pathway was considered only for the Arctic because exchange can be performed by ships traveling to Arctic ports, whereas ships traveling between other Canadian regions cannot perform open ocean exchange due to limited distance-from-shore. Additionally, there is concern about resource development in the Arctic and the associated increase in shipping traffic and ballast water discharge. (23)

Species Arrival

Pathway-specific empirical biological data were used to estimate the number of nonindigenous zooplankton species and their individual concentrations in ballast water for each ship trip, following four steps. Zooplankton data were obtained from previous ballast water studies conducted across Canada, collected opportunistically throughout multiple seasons representing a range of source ports and corresponding transits (n = 213 samples; SI Table S2). (23−27) Due to limited biological data for the Arctic domestic pathway, pathway-specific data were supplemented with that from internal Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River transits. (28,29)
First, the total zooplankton concentration (indigenous and nonindigenous; individuals per m3) among ship trips was characterized by fitting a negative binomial distribution to empirical sample count data within each pathway using maximum likelihood estimation (SI Table S3 and Figure S2). A probability distribution was generated for each pathway, and a random draw was made from these distributions to determine the total concentration of zooplankton on each ship trip.
Second, a conditional variable—Cp | Cs (population concentration | sample concentration)—was used to account for sampling error in organism counts and the spatial distribution of organisms in a tank were assumed to be distributed according to a Poisson process (SI Figure S3), such that the actual population concentration may vary from the obtained sample. (30,31)
Third, the proportion of nonindigenous individuals out of the total population was estimated by summarizing the proportion of zooplankton in empirical samples that were nonindigenous to each region. (22) Then, a beta distribution was fit to the proportion of nonindigenous zooplankton for each shipping pathway using maximum likelihood (SI Table S3 and Figure S4). A random draw was made from these pathway-specific distributions to determine the total concentration of nonindigenous individuals on each ship trip.
Fourth, once the concentration of nonindigenous zooplankton on a single trip was determined, a single species abundance distribution was randomly selected from empirical ballast water sample data from the same shipping pathway (SI Table S2). The species abundance distribution determined the number of nonindigenous species and their relative concentrations out of the total concentration of nonindigenous individuals on a given ship trip. (32)
With this overall approach, for each ship trip, a random value was drawn from the sample concentration distribution to determine the total sample concentration of zooplankton (indigenous and nonindigenous). Then, a random value was selected from the Cp | Cs distribution to determine the population concentration given the sample concentration. A random draw was made from the nonindigenous distribution to determine the concentration of nonindigenous individuals out of the total zooplankton concentration (i.e., total zooplankton concentration × proportion of nonindigenous individuals). Lastly, a species abundance distribution was randomly selected to quantify the number of nonindigenous species and their concentrations, distributed among the total concentration of nonindigenous individuals on a given trip.

Species Establishment

The establishment of each species released in each recipient port was determined based on (i) the temperature and salinity match between source and recipient environments; and, (ii) each species’ concentration and reproductive capacity. Temperature match was incorporated by estimating the environmental distance between source and recipient environments, calculated as the Euclidean distance between standardized temperature variables (maximum, minimum, mean). (33) The relationship between environmental distance and survival probability was determined using a binomial generalized-linear model fitted with presence-presence distances versus presence-background distances for 603 aquatic animal and plant species that have established in at least one novel region. Presence data was obtained in 2014 from the Global Invasive Species Information Network, excluding species with fewer than three unique occurrence points. The species data was split into 80% for fitting and 20% for training, and model performance was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC = 0.90). (34) The resultant environmental distance curve is available in SI Figure S5. Once the environmental distance was calculated for a given ship trip, a random draw was made from the logistic function (SI Figure S5) to determine whether each released species survived the environmental temperature in the recipient port.
Surviving species were assessed to determine whether they would establish viable populations based on their concentration and reproductive capacity. Species establishment probabilities (1–probability of extinction) were determined using the following equation adapted from Leung et al.: (35)
where Pe is the probability of establishment, α is the probability that a single propagule will establish a viable population, N is the concentration of organisms (individuals/m3), and c is a shape parameter to accommodate an Allee effect (where c > 1). We assumed no Allee effect (c = 1), following results from Bradie et al. (36) that showed c = 1 to be a reasonable assumption when modeling multiple species within a pathway. Examples of establishment probability curves are presented in SI Figure S6; the probability of establishment is high when α is large, even with low organism concentrations, whereas higher organism concentrations are necessary to attain high establishment probabilities when α is small.
Since the α parameter is expected to vary by species, an α value was drawn for each surviving species from a beta distribution with shape parameters α = 0.005 and β = 5 (SI Figure S7). This distribution was designed to include a wide range of aquatic species and their per-capita establishment probabilities under diverse biological, chemical, and physical conditions. The lower range of α representing sexually reproducing species is unknown. The upper limit of α was based on Bailey et al.’s (37) estimate of the upper limit of establishment probability for parthenogenetic zooplankton in the Great Lakes, which was fitted to align with the 97.5th percentile of the curve. The per-capita establishment probability distribution was assumed to be identical across all shipping pathways.
The α parameter was then adjusted based on the salinity match between ports. When the salinity difference between the source and recipient environments was either marine-brackish or brackish-freshwater (or vice versa), α values were halved. When the salinity difference was marine-freshwater or vice versa, α values were divided by 10. As the true effect of salinity on species’ α values is unknown, the adjustments in α were chosen following the rationale that most species would experience highest establishment probability in environments matching their donor region, and lower establishment probability in environments that do not match their donor region. (11,12,38) With this approach, the life history processes governing establishment are also constrained when a species has been introduced to an environment with poor survival potential.
Based on the outcome of the establishment probability equation, a binary outcome of establishment (1) or extinction (0) was determined for each surviving species per trip using a Bernoulli trial. Simulations were repeated 1000 times to determine the mean establishment rate. Model simulations were run in the R statistical programming language. (39) The 95% confidence interval for the mean was determined by bootstrapping with replacement 5000 times using the boot package in R. (40)

Modeling the Management Scenarios

Ballast water exchange was assumed to alter both the temperature and salinity match for species resident in tanks, but not affect the concentration of organisms or number of species on a given ship trip. This assumption was based on conflicting empirical data from ships conducting exchange, with some studies showing a strong influence of exchange on organism abundance, (41−43) while others did not observe a reduction in abundance following exchange. (23) Therefore, the approach assuming no change in the abundance or proportion of nonindigenous zooplankton introduced the fewest assumptions to the model. As a result, the modeled effect of exchange was a change in species establishment probabilities reflective of the temperature and salinity match between the location of exchange and recipient port. (13) The location of exchange was randomly selected from population data of midpoints of exchange for ships arriving to each Canadian region in 2015.
The model incorporated the efficacy of exchange at purging organisms from ballast tanks given the method of performing exchange. The mean efficacy of exchange was assumed to be 70.1% for flow-through and 97.9% for empty-refill, (44) and the prevalence of each method for each pathway was based on observed empirical data for one year of ship transits to Canada. Therefore, following exchange, the total population concentration remained the same, with a percentage of this total comprised of the open ocean community (70.1 or 97.9%) and the remainder comprised of the original ballast source community. The establishment probability of the residual pre-exchange community was based on the temperature and salinity match between the source and recipient ports.
Ballast water treatment was modeled by changing the organism concentration for a trip to levels observed in “successful” or “failed” treatments from a study of treated ballast water samples obtained from international ships arriving to Canada during 2017 and 2018; (45) “successful” treatment refers to treated ballast water samples with numbers of viable organisms within the limits of the D-2 standard, while “failed” treatment samples had numbers of viable organisms exceeding the limits of the D-2 standard. For successful treatments, zooplankton concentrations were drawn from a Poisson distribution with a mean of 1.58 zooplankton organisms per m3. (45) For failed treatments, zooplankton concentrations were drawn from a log-normal distribution with a mean of 1155 individuals per m3. (45) The post-treatment probability distributions were the best fitting distributions using maximum likelihood. Post-treatment concentrations were restricted to being equal to or less than pretreatment concentrations. The treated ballast water sample data were not pathway specific due to the limited number of samples (n = 32) collected in Canada to date.
Both fully and partially effective treatment scenarios were considered, where successful treatment occurred on 100% and 50% of trips, respectively. The 50% rate for partially effective treatment was based on empirical evidence to date, (8,45) noting that treatment efficacy may vary depending on water conditions during ballast loading (e.g., turbidity), treatment system type, or operational experience. (8,9,16) The simulated effect of treatment was applied to the same ship trips in the no management and exchange only scenarios to produce the treatment only and exchange plus treatment scenarios, respectively.

Model Sensitivity

The sensitivity of the model was evaluated by increasing or decreasing (by 25%) the total organism concentration, proportion of nonindigenous species or number of trips, and observing the proportional response in outcomes. Additionally, the source and recipient port combinations were randomized to simulate a change in ship traffic patterns, all species’ α values were set to 0.005 to assess the effect if all species reproduced clonally, and an Allee effect was included in the establishment equation (c = 2). (36) The response variable for sensitivity analysis was the mean number of species establishments per year among all Canadian ports (fresh, brackish, and marine).

Results and Discussion

ARTICLE SECTIONS
Jump To

When treatment systems were effective on 50% of trips, exchange plus treatment was more effective than treatment alone for trips arriving to freshwater ports, more than doubling the mean number of trips until ≥1 species establishes from 585 (effective treatment on 50% trips) to 1442 (exchange plus treatment, with effective treatment on 50% of trips; Figure 1a). A similar, but smaller, positive effect was found for brackish water recipient ports, with the mean number of trips until ≥1 species establishes increasing from 2007 to 2948 (Figure 1b). In contrast, there was no apparent benefit to using exchange plus treatment versus treatment alone for marine recipient ports (1169 vs 1287 trips until ≥1 species establishes, respectively; Figure 1c). These results indicate that exchange may serve as an important backup strategy most protective of fresh or brackish recipient ports, at least until treatment can be applied successfully across all ship trips.

Figure 1

Figure 1. Mean number of trips until ≥1 nonindigenous zooplankton species establishes by ballast water discharge in fresh, brackish, or marine water recipient ports in Canada. The ballast water management methods assessed are no management (NM), exchange only (E), treatment only (T), and exchange plus treatment (E+T). Ballast water treatment was either partially effective (meeting D-2 limit on 50% of ship trips) (PE) or fully effective (meeting D-2 limit on 100% of ship trips) (FE). The error bars represent the bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals of the mean across 1000 single year iterations. Upper confidence intervals with infinite number of trips until ≥1 species establishment occurs are denoted by *. The y-axis is on a logarithmic scale.

Fully effective treatment extended the time frame required until ≥1 nonindigenous zooplankton species establishes compared to partially effective treatment for all recipient ports (all salinities; Figure 1). Still, even with fully effective treatment, exchange plus treatment was more effective at preventing nonindigenous zooplankton establishments than treatment alone in freshwater ports, increasing the mean number of trips until ≥1 species establishes from 11 338 to 58 140, respectively (Figure 1a). On the other hand, exchange plus treatment provided no additional benefit compared to treatment alone in recipient ports that were brackish (141 443 trips until ≥1 species establishes for both scenarios; Figure 1b) or marine (42 553 vs 58 824 trips until ≥1 species establishes, respectively; Figure 1c). Summarily, exchange plus treatment was most effective at mitigating establishment risk in freshwater ports, regardless of whether treatment was successful on 50% or 100% of ship trips.
These results highlight the importance of considering environmental context when designing and implementing management plans and demonstrate that additional benefit (reduced establishment rate) can be achieved with a multidimensional management approach. Since the combined approach of exchange plus treatment entails additional costs (in terms of crew effort and operational costs), this study can inform a more targeted management approach that maximizes the cost-benefit ratio.

Correlation with Historical Observations

Evaluating the model output to determine whether it is empirically reasonable is an important, yet difficult, task, due to incomplete data on successful and failed establishments of nonindigenous species. Nonetheless, we compared model results for the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence region with observed species discovery data for ship-mediated nonindigenous species assembled by Sturtevant and colleagues. (46) We ran the model for the Great Lakes–-St. Lawrence River international shipping pathway with the mean species per year metric, and compared the results for the baseline scenarios (no management and exchange only) against observed species discovery rate during related time periods.
The estimated establishment rate of nonindigenous invertebrates during the 25-year period prior to 1993 (no management) of 0.32 species per year, based on species discovery data, (46) is similar to the 0.55 species per year produced by this model. There have been seven confirmed invertebrate establishments in the Great Lakes attributed to ballast water in the 25 years since exchange became mandatory under U.S. law in 1993. (25,46) The discovery rate of 0.28 invertebrates per year from 1994 to 2019 corresponds well with model results of 0.33 species per year for the exchange only scenario. Ultimately, the encouraging correlation between the model results and historical observations indicates that the scenarios provide sound representation of the risk of ballast-mediated invasions to fresh, brackish, and marine ecosystems in Canada.

Sources of Uncertainty and Model Sensitivity

The true per-capita establishment probabilities of species may have been under- or overestimated, given widespread uncertainty about the relationship between propagule pressure and establishment. (47) To examine the potential effect of underestimating alpha values, we considered the case where alpha for all species was 0.005, which is equivalent to a parthenogenetic species having establishment probability greater than 50% with an initial concentration of at least 150 individuals per m3. Results showed this would increase the number of establishments, but not influence the relative performance of the different management options (SI Table S4). Additional research evaluating appropriate alpha values across species and environments would help shape the per-capita establishment probability distribution, improving estimates of species establishment.
The alteration of alpha values based on salinity matching (to give effect of ballast water exchange) is another source of uncertainty. While the premise of species having a lower establishment risk in recipient environments that do not match the source environment’s salinity is founded on past research, (11,12,38) the actual value associated with this decrease is unknown. To examine the implications of this assumption, the model was also run with the salinity variable built into the fitted environmental distance curve rather than including it as a separate factor affecting establishment. Model predictions were similar, which implied that the estimated numeric effect of environment on establishment is in the right vicinity. This model also assumed no Allee effect (c = 1), as recommended for pathway-level models, (36) but we examined the influence of this assumption on the results by running the model with the Allee effect set to c = 2. This caused a 67% increase in establishment rate on average (SI Table S4), but the relative differences between the management scenarios remained the same. While other biotic and abiotic variables can influence species survival or establishment (e.g., nutrient availability, competition, or predation), (48) they were beyond the scope of this analysis, though they may contribute uncertainty to the model results.
The transit frequency, total sample organism concentration, and proportion of nonindigenous individuals were also shifted by 25% to evaluate the model’s sensitivity to changes in propagule pressure. The model was not particularly sensitive to deviations in these parameters, with each parameter shift typically resulting in a less than 10% change in species per year (SI Table S4). This could be due to the summation of unique species establishments (rather than species predicted to establish more than once) but, nonetheless, the model was robust to changes in these input parameters. In some cases, the scenarios involving 100% successful treatment had wider fluctuations in the percentage change in species establishment rate relative to the null (e.g., a 25% increase in mean proportion of nonindigenous zooplankton resulted in a 35% increase in establishment rate; SI Table S4). However, fully successful treatment had fewer initial establishments, resulting in larger percentage changes corresponding to relatively small deviations in species establishments.
Finally, the effectiveness of exchange may have been underestimated by this model due to the assumption that exchange did not alter organism concentrations in ballast tanks. More information on pre- versus postexchange organism concentrations could improve the modeled effect of exchange. Although a number of parameters driving this model were based on best available data, due to the high degree of uncertainty associated with predicting establishment rates given current scientific knowledge, management decisions should be based on the relative differences in establishment risk between management strategies rather than numerical outputs.

Final Considerations

Exchange plus treatment can be conducted by either (1) loading untreated port water and using a treatment system only during exchange (E+T); or, (2) using a treatment system to treat incoming water during both initial ballast loading and exchange (T+E+T). A third combination, using a treatment system during initial ballast loading and no treatment during exchange (T+E), though operationally possible, would be unlikely to meet the D-2 standard required by the Convention. E+T places less stress on treatment systems during challenging port conditions (e.g., turbid water due to seasonal flooding) thereby potentially reducing maintenance and repairs, and has lower associated effort due to fewer required treatment steps. However, E+T only manages source port ballast water using exchange, thus posing a potential threat to ocean ecosystems when unmanaged ballast water is expelled. Furthermore, residual ballast water and sediments following exchange may contain a substantial number of viable organisms from the initial unmanaged ballast uptake, posing invasion risks to recipient ecosystems. In contrast, T+E+T ensures no unmanaged water enters ballast tanks, and in cases where it is unsafe to perform exchange due to poor weather conditions, at least the treatment system will have been utilized.

Supporting Information

ARTICLE SECTIONS
Jump To

The Supporting Information is available free of charge at https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.0c05238.

  • Information on the Canadian regions examined in this study, model parameter values, probability distributions, sensitivity analysis results, and supplementary model results (PDF)

Terms & Conditions

Most electronic Supporting Information files are available without a subscription to ACS Web Editions. Such files may be downloaded by article for research use (if there is a public use license linked to the relevant article, that license may permit other uses). Permission may be obtained from ACS for other uses through requests via the RightsLink permission system: http://pubs.acs.org/page/copyright/permissions.html.

Author Information

ARTICLE SECTIONS
Jump To

  • Corresponding Author
  • Authors
    • Johanna N. Bradie - Great Lakes Laboratory for Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 867 Lakeshore Road, Burlington, Ontario L7S 1A1, CanadaPresent Address: Great Lakes Institute for Environmental Research, University of Windsor, 401 Sunset Ave, Windsor, Ontario, N9B 3P4
    • David Andrew R. Drake - Great Lakes Laboratory for Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 867 Lakeshore Road, Burlington, Ontario L7S 1A1, Canada
    • Dawson Ogilvie - Great Lakes Laboratory for Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 867 Lakeshore Road, Burlington, Ontario L7S 1A1, Canada
    • Oscar Casas-Monroy - Great Lakes Laboratory for Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 867 Lakeshore Road, Burlington, Ontario L7S 1A1, Canada
  • Notes
    The authors declare no competing financial interest.

Acknowledgments

ARTICLE SECTIONS
Jump To

This study was funded by Fisheries and Oceans Canada and Transport Canada.

References

ARTICLE SECTIONS
Jump To

This article references 48 other publications.

  1. 1
    Molnar, J. L.; Gamboa, R. L.; Revenga, C.; Spalding, M. D. Assessing the global threat of invasive species to marine biodiversity. Front. Ecol. Environ. 2008, 6 (9), 485492,  DOI: 10.1890/070064
  2. 2
    Bailey, S. A.; Brown, L.; Campbell, M. L.; Canning-Clode, J.; Carlton, J. T.; Castro, N.; Chainho, P.; Chan, F. T.; Creed, J. C.; Curd, A.; Darling, J.; Fofonoff, Pl; Galil, B. S.; Hewitt, C. L.; Inglis, G. J.; Keith, I.; Mandrak, N. E.; Marchini, A.; McKenzie, C. H.; Occhipinti-Ambrogi, A.; Ojaveer, H.; Pires-Teixeira, L.; Robinson-Smythe, T.; Ruiz, G. M.; Seaward, K.; Schwindt, E.; Son, M.; Therriault, T. W.; Zhan, A. Trends in the detection of aquatic non-indigenous species across global marine, estuarine and freshwater ecosystems: A 50-year perspective. Diversity Distrib. 2020, 26, 17801797,  DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13195
  3. 3
    International Maritime Organization. International convention for the control and management of ships’ ballast water and sediments, 2004; BWM/CONF/36; International Maritime Organization: London, UK, 2004.
  4. 4
    International Maritime Organization. “ International Convention for the Control and Management of Ships’ Ballast Water and Sediments”. https://www.imo.org/en/About/Conventions/Pages/International-Convention-for-the-Control-and-Management-of-Ships%27-Ballast-Water-and-Sediments-(BWM).aspx (accessed 2020/11/17).
  5. 5
    Gregg, M.; Rigby, R.; Hallegraeff, G. Review of two decades of progress in the development of management options for reducing or eradicating phytoplankton, zooplankton and bacteria in ships ballast water. Aquatic Invasions 2009, 4 (3), 521565,  DOI: 10.3391/ai.2009.4.3.14
  6. 6
    de Lafontaine, Y.; Despatie, S.; Veilleux, É.; Wiley, C. Onboard ship evaluation of the effectiveness and the potential environmental effects of PERACLEAN® Ocean for ballast water treatment in very cold conditions. Environ. Toxicol. 2009, 24, 4965,  DOI: 10.1002/tox.20394
  7. 7
    Casas-Monroy, O.; Linley, R. D.; Chan, P.; Kydd, J.; Byllaardt, J. V.; Bailey, S. Evaluating efficacy of filtration UV-C radiation for ballast water treatment at different temperatures. J. Sea Res. 2018, 133, 2028,  DOI: 10.1016/j.seares.2017.02.001
  8. 8
    Briski, E.; Gollasch, S.; David, M.; Linley, R. D.; Casas-Monroy, O.; Rajakaruna, H.; Bailey, S. A. Combining ballast water exchange and treatment to maximize prevention of species introductions to freshwater ecosystems. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2015, 49, 95669573,  DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.5b01795
  9. 9
    Paolucci, E. M.; Hernandez, M. R.; Potapov, A.; Lewis, M. A.; Macisaac, H. J. Hybrid system increases efficiency of ballast water treatment. J. Appl. Ecol. 2015, 52 (2), 348357,  DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12397
  10. 10
    Canada. Proposal to Utilize Ballast Water Exchange in Combination with a Ballast Water Management System to Achieve an Enhanced Level of Protection. Submitted to 15th session of the Sub-Committee on Bulk Liquids and Gases as BLG 15/5/7. International Maritime Organization, London, England, 2010.
  11. 11
    Santagata, S.; Gasiu̅naite, Z.; Verling, E.; Cordell, J.; Eason, K.; Cohen, J.; Bacela, K.; Quilez-Badia, G.; Johengen, T. H.; Reid, D. F.; Ruiz, G. Effect of osmotic shock as a management strategy to reduce transfers of nonindigenous species among low-salinity ports by ships. Aquatic Invasions 2008, 3, 6176,  DOI: 10.3391/ai.2008.3.1.10
  12. 12
    Ellis, S.; Macisaac, H. J. Salinity tolerance of Great Lakes invaders. Freshwater Biol. 2009, 54, 7789,  DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2427.2008.02098.x
  13. 13
    Reid, D. F. The Role of Osmotic Stress (Salinity Shock) In Protecting the Great Lakes from Ballast-Associated Aquatic Invaders; submitted to the U.S. Saint Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation, U.S. Department of Transportation, 2012.
  14. 14
    Cordell, J. R.; Lawrence, D. J.; Ferm, N. C.; Tear, L. M.; Smith, S. S.; Herwig, R. P. Factors influencing densities of nonindigenous species in the ballast water of ships arriving at ports in Puget Sound, Washington, United States. Aquatic Conserv: Mar. Freshw. Ecosyst. 2009, 19 (3), 322343,  DOI: 10.1002/aqc.986
  15. 15
    McCollin, T.; Shanks, A. M.; Dunn, J. Changes in zooplankton abundance and diversity after ballast water exchange in regional seas. Mar. Pollut. Bull. 2008, 56, 834844,  DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2008.02.004
  16. 16
    Briski, E.; Allinger, L. E.; Balcer, M.; Cangelosi, A.; Fanberg, L.; Markee, T. P.; Mays, N.; Polkinghorne, C. N.; Prihoda, K. R.; Reavie, E. D.; Regan, D. H.; Reid, D. M.; Saillard, H. J.; Schwerdt, T.; Schaefer, H.; TenEyck, M.; Wiley, C. J.; Bailey, S. A. Multidimensional approach to invasive species prevention. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2013, 47, 12161221,  DOI: 10.1021/es3029445
  17. 17
    Paolucci, E. M.; Ron, L.; Macisaac, H. J. Combining ballast water treatment and ballast water exchange: Reducing colonization pressure and propagule pressure of phytoplankton organisms. Aquat. Ecosyst. Health Manage. 2017, 20 (4), 369377,  DOI: 10.1080/14634988.2017.1404419
  18. 18
    Remane, A.; Schlieper, C. Biology of Brackish Water, 2nd ed.; Schweizerbart: Stuttgart, Germany, 1972.
  19. 19
    Keller, R. P.; Drake, J. M.; Drew, M. B.; Lodge, D. M. Linking environmental conditions and ship movements to estimate invasive species transport across the global shipping network. Diversity Distrib. 2011, 17, 93102,  DOI: 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00696.x
  20. 20
    Locarnini, R. A.; Mishonov, A. V.; Antonov, J. I.; Boyer, T. P.; Garcia, H. E.; Baranova, O. K.; Zweng, M. M.; Paver, C. R.; Reagan, J. R.; Johnson, D. R.; Hamilton, M.; Seidov, D. World Ocean Atlas 2013, Vol. 1: Temperature; Levitus, S., Mishonov, A., Eds.; NOAA Atlas NESDIS, 2013; Vol. 73.
  21. 21
    Zweng, M. M; Reagan, J. R.; Antonov, J. I.; Locarnini, R. A.; Mishonov, A. V.; Boyer, T. P.; Garcia, H. E.; Baranova, O. K.; Johnson, D. R.; Seidov, D.; Biddle, M. M. World Ocean Atlas 2013, Vol. 2: Salinity; Levitus, S., Mishonov, A., Eds; NOAA Atlas NESDIS, 2013, Vol. 74.
  22. 22
    Casas-Monroy, O.; Linley, R. D.; Adams, J. K.; Chan, F. T.; Drake, D. A. R.; Bailey, S. A. National risk assessment for introduction of aquatic nonindigenous species to Canada by ballast water. PLoS One 2015, 10, 2013/128,  DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0118267
  23. 23
    Chan, F. T.; Macisaac, H. J.; Bailey, S. A. Relative importance of vessel hull fouling and ballast water as transport vectors of nonindigenous species to the Canadian Arctic. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 2015, 72 (8), 12301242,  DOI: 10.1139/cjfas-2014-0473
  24. 24
    Humphrey, D. B. Characterizing ballast water as a vector for nonindigenous zooplankton transport. M.Sc. Thesis, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, 2008.
  25. 25
    Bailey, S. A.; Deneau, M. G.; Jean, L.; Wiley, C. J.; Leung, B.; Macisaac, H. J. Evaluating efficacy of an environmental policy to prevent biological invasions. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2011, 45 (7), 25542561,  DOI: 10.1021/es102655j
  26. 26
    Briski, E.; Bailey, S. A.; Casas-Monroy, O.; DiBacco, C.; Kaczmarska, I.; Levings, C.; MacGillivary, M. L.; McKindsey, C. W.; Nasmith, L. E.; Parenteau, M.; Piercey, G.; Rochon, A.; Roy, S.; Simard, N.; Villac, M. C.; Weise, A.; MacIsaac, H. J. Relationship between propagule pressure and colonization pressure in invasion ecology: A test with ships’ ballast. Proc. R. Soc. London, Ser. B 2012, 279, 29902997,  DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2011.2671
  27. 27
    DiBacco, C.; Humphrey, D. B.; Nasmith, L. E.; Levings, C. D. Ballast water transport of non-indigenous zooplankton to Canadian ports. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 2012, 69, 483491,  DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsr133
  28. 28
    Briski, E.; Wiley, C. J.; Bailey, S. A. Role of domestic shipping in the introduction or secondary spread of nonindigenous species: Biological invasions within the Laurentian Great Lakes. J. Appl. Ecol. 2012, 49 (5), 11241130,  DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2012.02186.x
  29. 29
    Adebayo, A. A.; Zhan, A.; Bailey, S. A.; MacIsaac, H. J. Domestic ships as a potential pathway of nonindigenous species from the Saint Lawrence River to the Great Lakes. Biol. Invasions 2014, 16 (4), 793801,  DOI: 10.1007/s10530-013-0537-5
  30. 30
    Lee, H., II; Reusser, D. A.; Frazier, M. Approaches to setting organism-based ballast water discharge standards. Ecological Applications 2013, 23, 301310,  DOI: 10.1890/11-1638.1
  31. 31
    Drake, D. A. R.; Casas-Monroy, O.; Koops, M. A.; Bailey, S. A. Propagule pressure in the presence of uncertainty: Extending the utility of proxy variables with hierarchical models. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 2015, 6 (11), 13631371,  DOI: 10.1111/2041-210X.12429
  32. 32
    Drake, D. A. R.; Chan, F. T.; Briski, E.; Bailey, S. A.; MacIsaac, H. J. Assemblage structure: An overlooked component of human-mediated species movements among freshwater ecosystems. J. Limnol. 2014, 73 (s1), 108115,  DOI: 10.4081/jlimnol.2014.802
  33. 33
    Bradie, J.; Pietrobon, A.; Leung, B. Beyond species-specific assessments: An analysis and validation of environmental distance metrics for nonindigenous species risk assessment. Biol. Invasions 2015, 17 (12), 34553465,  DOI: 10.1007/s10530-015-0970-8
  34. 34
    Hanley, J. A.; Mcneil, B. J. The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiology 1982, 143, 2936,  DOI: 10.1148/radiology.143.1.7063747
  35. 35
    Leung, B.; Drake, J. M.; Lodge, D. M. Predicting invasions: Propagule pressure and the gravity of Allee effects. Ecology 2004, 85, 16511660,  DOI: 10.1890/02-0571
  36. 36
    Bradie, J.; Chivers, C.; Leung, B. Importing risk: Quantifying the propagule pressure-establishment relationship at the pathway level. Diversity Distrib. 2013, 19 (8), 10201030,  DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12081
  37. 37
    Bailey, S. A.; Vélez-Espino, L. A.; Johannsson, O. E.; Koops, M. A.; Wiley, C. J. Estimating establishment probabilities of Cladocera introduced at low density: An evaluation of the proposed ballast water discharge standards. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 2009, 66 (2), 261276,  DOI: 10.1139/F08-200
  38. 38
    Marine Ecology: A Comprehensive, Integrated Treatise on Life in Oceans and Coastal Waters; Kinne, O., Ed.; John Wiley & Sons Inc: London, UK, 1971; Vol. 1, Part 2.
  39. 39
    R Core Team. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, 2019; https://www.R-project.org.
  40. 40
    Canty, A.; Ripley B. boot: Bootstrap R (S-Plus) Functions . R package version 1.3–23, 2019.
  41. 41
    Wonham, M. J.; Walton, W. C.; Ruiz, G. M.; Frese, A. M.; Galil, B. S. Going to the source: Role of the invasion pathway in determining potential invaders. Mar. Ecol.: Prog. Ser. 2001, 215, 112,  DOI: 10.3354/meps215001
  42. 42
    Gray, D. K.; Johengen, T. H.; Reid, D. F.; MacIsaac, H. J. Efficacy of open-ocean ballast water exchange as a means of preventing invertebrate invasions between freshwater ports. Limnol. Oceanogr. 2007, 52 (6), 23862397,  DOI: 10.4319/lo.2007.52.6.2386
  43. 43
    Simard, N.; Plourde, S.; Gilbert, M.; Gollasch, S. Net efficacy of open ocean ballast water exchange on plankton communities. J. Plankton Res. 2011, 33 (9), 13781395,  DOI: 10.1093/plankt/fbr038
  44. 44
    Ruiz, G. M.; Smith, G. Biological study of container ships arriving to the Port of Oakland: Part B, ballast water exchange efficacy on eight container ships ; Final report submitted to the Port of Oakland, 2005.
  45. 45
    Bailey, S. A. Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Canadian Centre for Inland Waters, Burlington, ON. Unpublished work, 2020.
  46. 46
    Sturtevant, R.; Mason, D.; Rutherford, E.; Elgin, A.; Lower, E.; Martinez, F. Recent history of nonindigenous species in the Laurentian Great Lakes; An update to Mills et al., 1993 (25 years later). J. Great Lakes Res. 2019, 45 (6), 10111035,  DOI: 10.1016/j.jglr.2019.09.002
  47. 47
    National Research Council. Assessing the Relationship between Propagule Pressure and Invasion Risk in Ballast Water; The National Academies Press: Washington, DC, 2011.
  48. 48
    Sakai, A. K.; Allendorf, F. W.; Holt, J. S.; Lodge, D. M.; Molofsky, J.; With, K. A.; Baughman, S.; Cabin, R. J.; Cohen, J. E.; Ellstrand, N. C.; McCauley, D. E.; O’Neil, P.; Parker, I. M.; Thompson, J. N.; Weller, S. G. The population biology of invasive species. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 2001, 32, 305332,  DOI: 10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.32.081501.114037

Cited By

This article is cited by 14 publications.

  1. Anwei Nie, Zheng Wan, ZhuangFei Shi, Zhaojun Wang. Cost-benefit analysis of ballast water treatment for three major port clusters in China: evaluation of different scenario strategies. Frontiers in Marine Science 2023, 10 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1174550
  2. Alastair J. Roberts, Curtis A. Suttle. Pathogens and Passengers: Roles for Crustacean Zooplankton Viruses in the Global Ocean. Microorganisms 2023, 11 (4) , 1054. https://doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms11041054
  3. Yanzhu Wang, Feng Zhou, Su Zhan, Jiahong Sun, Ruichao Xu. Study on inactivation of marine microorganisms by AgI/ Bi2O2CO3 composite photocatalyst. Reaction Kinetics, Mechanisms and Catalysis 2023, 136 (1) , 535-548. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11144-022-02341-4
  4. Chenglin Zhang, Qiuchen He, Su Zhan, Feng Zhou. Photocatalytic hydrogen peroxide production in natural seawater by AgQDs(0D)/Bi2O3(3D) hybrid structure for in-situ bacterial inactivation. Journal of Photochemistry and Photobiology A: Chemistry 2023, 435 , 114293. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jphotochem.2022.114293
  5. Johanna Bradie, Matteo Rolla, Sarah A. Bailey, Hugh J. MacIsaac. Managing risk of non‐indigenous species establishment associated with ballast water discharges from ships with bypassed or inoperable ballast water management systems. Journal of Applied Ecology 2023, 60 (1) , 193-204. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.14321
  6. Oscar Casas-Monroy, Jocelyn Kydd, Robin M. Rozon, Sarah A. Bailey. Assessing the performance of four indicative analysis devices for ballast water compliance monitoring, considering organisms in the size range ≥10 to <50 μm. Journal of Environmental Management 2022, 317 , 115300. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115300
  7. Burcu Sayinli, Yujiao Dong, Yuri Park, Amit Bhatnagar, Mika Sillanpää. Recent progress and challenges facing ballast water treatment – A review. Chemosphere 2022, 291 , 132776. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2021.132776
  8. Anthony Ricciardi, Hugh J. MacIsaac. Vector control reduces the rate of species invasion in the world's largest freshwater ecosystem. Conservation Letters 2022, 15 (2) https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12866
  9. Chenglin Zhang, Qiuchen He, Fengguang Wang, Jianfu Lai, Su Zhan, Feng Zhou. Photosynthesis of Hydrogen Peroxide for In-Situ Bacterial Inactivation in Natural Seawater Based on Agqds/Bi2o3 Photocatalysts. SSRN Electronic Journal 2022, 199 https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4107490
  10. Chenglin Zhang, Qiuchen He, Su Zhan, Feng Zhou. Photocatalytic Hydrogen Peroxide Production in Natural Seawater by Agqds(0d)/Bi2o3(3d) Hybrid Structure for In-Situ Bacterial Inactivation. SSRN Electronic Journal 2022, 199 https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4174122
  11. Chenglin Zhang, Yupeng Song, Qiuchen He, Fengguang Wang, Su Zhan, Feng Zhou. H2O2-assisted photocatalysis induced by SPR of BiQDs anchored on BiVO4 for the production of hydroxyl radicals in seawater. Journal of Environmental Chemical Engineering 2021, 9 (5) , 105973. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jece.2021.105973
  12. Mimi W. Tzeng, Oliver Floerl, Anastasija Zaiko. A Framework for Compiling Quantifications of Marine Biosecurity Risk Factors Associated With Common Vessel Types. Frontiers in Marine Science 2021, 8 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.723782
  13. Oscar Casas-Monroy, Sarah A. Bailey. Do Ballast Water Management Systems Reduce Phytoplankton Introductions to Canadian Waters?. Frontiers in Marine Science 2021, 8 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.691723
  14. Zijian Guo, Zhen Cao, Wenyuan Wang, Ying Jiang, Xinglu Xu, Peng Feng. An integrated model for vessel traffic and deballasting scheduling in coal export terminals. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 2021, 152 , 102409. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2021.102409
  • Abstract

    Figure 1

    Figure 1. Mean number of trips until ≥1 nonindigenous zooplankton species establishes by ballast water discharge in fresh, brackish, or marine water recipient ports in Canada. The ballast water management methods assessed are no management (NM), exchange only (E), treatment only (T), and exchange plus treatment (E+T). Ballast water treatment was either partially effective (meeting D-2 limit on 50% of ship trips) (PE) or fully effective (meeting D-2 limit on 100% of ship trips) (FE). The error bars represent the bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals of the mean across 1000 single year iterations. Upper confidence intervals with infinite number of trips until ≥1 species establishment occurs are denoted by *. The y-axis is on a logarithmic scale.

  • References

    ARTICLE SECTIONS
    Jump To

    This article references 48 other publications.

    1. 1
      Molnar, J. L.; Gamboa, R. L.; Revenga, C.; Spalding, M. D. Assessing the global threat of invasive species to marine biodiversity. Front. Ecol. Environ. 2008, 6 (9), 485492,  DOI: 10.1890/070064
    2. 2
      Bailey, S. A.; Brown, L.; Campbell, M. L.; Canning-Clode, J.; Carlton, J. T.; Castro, N.; Chainho, P.; Chan, F. T.; Creed, J. C.; Curd, A.; Darling, J.; Fofonoff, Pl; Galil, B. S.; Hewitt, C. L.; Inglis, G. J.; Keith, I.; Mandrak, N. E.; Marchini, A.; McKenzie, C. H.; Occhipinti-Ambrogi, A.; Ojaveer, H.; Pires-Teixeira, L.; Robinson-Smythe, T.; Ruiz, G. M.; Seaward, K.; Schwindt, E.; Son, M.; Therriault, T. W.; Zhan, A. Trends in the detection of aquatic non-indigenous species across global marine, estuarine and freshwater ecosystems: A 50-year perspective. Diversity Distrib. 2020, 26, 17801797,  DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13195
    3. 3
      International Maritime Organization. International convention for the control and management of ships’ ballast water and sediments, 2004; BWM/CONF/36; International Maritime Organization: London, UK, 2004.
    4. 4
      International Maritime Organization. “ International Convention for the Control and Management of Ships’ Ballast Water and Sediments”. https://www.imo.org/en/About/Conventions/Pages/International-Convention-for-the-Control-and-Management-of-Ships%27-Ballast-Water-and-Sediments-(BWM).aspx (accessed 2020/11/17).
    5. 5
      Gregg, M.; Rigby, R.; Hallegraeff, G. Review of two decades of progress in the development of management options for reducing or eradicating phytoplankton, zooplankton and bacteria in ships ballast water. Aquatic Invasions 2009, 4 (3), 521565,  DOI: 10.3391/ai.2009.4.3.14
    6. 6
      de Lafontaine, Y.; Despatie, S.; Veilleux, É.; Wiley, C. Onboard ship evaluation of the effectiveness and the potential environmental effects of PERACLEAN® Ocean for ballast water treatment in very cold conditions. Environ. Toxicol. 2009, 24, 4965,  DOI: 10.1002/tox.20394
    7. 7
      Casas-Monroy, O.; Linley, R. D.; Chan, P.; Kydd, J.; Byllaardt, J. V.; Bailey, S. Evaluating efficacy of filtration UV-C radiation for ballast water treatment at different temperatures. J. Sea Res. 2018, 133, 2028,  DOI: 10.1016/j.seares.2017.02.001
    8. 8
      Briski, E.; Gollasch, S.; David, M.; Linley, R. D.; Casas-Monroy, O.; Rajakaruna, H.; Bailey, S. A. Combining ballast water exchange and treatment to maximize prevention of species introductions to freshwater ecosystems. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2015, 49, 95669573,  DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.5b01795
    9. 9
      Paolucci, E. M.; Hernandez, M. R.; Potapov, A.; Lewis, M. A.; Macisaac, H. J. Hybrid system increases efficiency of ballast water treatment. J. Appl. Ecol. 2015, 52 (2), 348357,  DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12397
    10. 10
      Canada. Proposal to Utilize Ballast Water Exchange in Combination with a Ballast Water Management System to Achieve an Enhanced Level of Protection. Submitted to 15th session of the Sub-Committee on Bulk Liquids and Gases as BLG 15/5/7. International Maritime Organization, London, England, 2010.
    11. 11
      Santagata, S.; Gasiu̅naite, Z.; Verling, E.; Cordell, J.; Eason, K.; Cohen, J.; Bacela, K.; Quilez-Badia, G.; Johengen, T. H.; Reid, D. F.; Ruiz, G. Effect of osmotic shock as a management strategy to reduce transfers of nonindigenous species among low-salinity ports by ships. Aquatic Invasions 2008, 3, 6176,  DOI: 10.3391/ai.2008.3.1.10
    12. 12
      Ellis, S.; Macisaac, H. J. Salinity tolerance of Great Lakes invaders. Freshwater Biol. 2009, 54, 7789,  DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2427.2008.02098.x
    13. 13
      Reid, D. F. The Role of Osmotic Stress (Salinity Shock) In Protecting the Great Lakes from Ballast-Associated Aquatic Invaders; submitted to the U.S. Saint Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation, U.S. Department of Transportation, 2012.
    14. 14
      Cordell, J. R.; Lawrence, D. J.; Ferm, N. C.; Tear, L. M.; Smith, S. S.; Herwig, R. P. Factors influencing densities of nonindigenous species in the ballast water of ships arriving at ports in Puget Sound, Washington, United States. Aquatic Conserv: Mar. Freshw. Ecosyst. 2009, 19 (3), 322343,  DOI: 10.1002/aqc.986
    15. 15
      McCollin, T.; Shanks, A. M.; Dunn, J. Changes in zooplankton abundance and diversity after ballast water exchange in regional seas. Mar. Pollut. Bull. 2008, 56, 834844,  DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2008.02.004
    16. 16
      Briski, E.; Allinger, L. E.; Balcer, M.; Cangelosi, A.; Fanberg, L.; Markee, T. P.; Mays, N.; Polkinghorne, C. N.; Prihoda, K. R.; Reavie, E. D.; Regan, D. H.; Reid, D. M.; Saillard, H. J.; Schwerdt, T.; Schaefer, H.; TenEyck, M.; Wiley, C. J.; Bailey, S. A. Multidimensional approach to invasive species prevention. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2013, 47, 12161221,  DOI: 10.1021/es3029445
    17. 17
      Paolucci, E. M.; Ron, L.; Macisaac, H. J. Combining ballast water treatment and ballast water exchange: Reducing colonization pressure and propagule pressure of phytoplankton organisms. Aquat. Ecosyst. Health Manage. 2017, 20 (4), 369377,  DOI: 10.1080/14634988.2017.1404419
    18. 18
      Remane, A.; Schlieper, C. Biology of Brackish Water, 2nd ed.; Schweizerbart: Stuttgart, Germany, 1972.
    19. 19
      Keller, R. P.; Drake, J. M.; Drew, M. B.; Lodge, D. M. Linking environmental conditions and ship movements to estimate invasive species transport across the global shipping network. Diversity Distrib. 2011, 17, 93102,  DOI: 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00696.x
    20. 20
      Locarnini, R. A.; Mishonov, A. V.; Antonov, J. I.; Boyer, T. P.; Garcia, H. E.; Baranova, O. K.; Zweng, M. M.; Paver, C. R.; Reagan, J. R.; Johnson, D. R.; Hamilton, M.; Seidov, D. World Ocean Atlas 2013, Vol. 1: Temperature; Levitus, S., Mishonov, A., Eds.; NOAA Atlas NESDIS, 2013; Vol. 73.
    21. 21
      Zweng, M. M; Reagan, J. R.; Antonov, J. I.; Locarnini, R. A.; Mishonov, A. V.; Boyer, T. P.; Garcia, H. E.; Baranova, O. K.; Johnson, D. R.; Seidov, D.; Biddle, M. M. World Ocean Atlas 2013, Vol. 2: Salinity; Levitus, S., Mishonov, A., Eds; NOAA Atlas NESDIS, 2013, Vol. 74.
    22. 22
      Casas-Monroy, O.; Linley, R. D.; Adams, J. K.; Chan, F. T.; Drake, D. A. R.; Bailey, S. A. National risk assessment for introduction of aquatic nonindigenous species to Canada by ballast water. PLoS One 2015, 10, 2013/128,  DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0118267
    23. 23
      Chan, F. T.; Macisaac, H. J.; Bailey, S. A. Relative importance of vessel hull fouling and ballast water as transport vectors of nonindigenous species to the Canadian Arctic. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 2015, 72 (8), 12301242,  DOI: 10.1139/cjfas-2014-0473
    24. 24
      Humphrey, D. B. Characterizing ballast water as a vector for nonindigenous zooplankton transport. M.Sc. Thesis, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, 2008.
    25. 25
      Bailey, S. A.; Deneau, M. G.; Jean, L.; Wiley, C. J.; Leung, B.; Macisaac, H. J. Evaluating efficacy of an environmental policy to prevent biological invasions. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2011, 45 (7), 25542561,  DOI: 10.1021/es102655j
    26. 26
      Briski, E.; Bailey, S. A.; Casas-Monroy, O.; DiBacco, C.; Kaczmarska, I.; Levings, C.; MacGillivary, M. L.; McKindsey, C. W.; Nasmith, L. E.; Parenteau, M.; Piercey, G.; Rochon, A.; Roy, S.; Simard, N.; Villac, M. C.; Weise, A.; MacIsaac, H. J. Relationship between propagule pressure and colonization pressure in invasion ecology: A test with ships’ ballast. Proc. R. Soc. London, Ser. B 2012, 279, 29902997,  DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2011.2671
    27. 27
      DiBacco, C.; Humphrey, D. B.; Nasmith, L. E.; Levings, C. D. Ballast water transport of non-indigenous zooplankton to Canadian ports. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 2012, 69, 483491,  DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsr133
    28. 28
      Briski, E.; Wiley, C. J.; Bailey, S. A. Role of domestic shipping in the introduction or secondary spread of nonindigenous species: Biological invasions within the Laurentian Great Lakes. J. Appl. Ecol. 2012, 49 (5), 11241130,  DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2012.02186.x
    29. 29
      Adebayo, A. A.; Zhan, A.; Bailey, S. A.; MacIsaac, H. J. Domestic ships as a potential pathway of nonindigenous species from the Saint Lawrence River to the Great Lakes. Biol. Invasions 2014, 16 (4), 793801,  DOI: 10.1007/s10530-013-0537-5
    30. 30
      Lee, H., II; Reusser, D. A.; Frazier, M. Approaches to setting organism-based ballast water discharge standards. Ecological Applications 2013, 23, 301310,  DOI: 10.1890/11-1638.1
    31. 31
      Drake, D. A. R.; Casas-Monroy, O.; Koops, M. A.; Bailey, S. A. Propagule pressure in the presence of uncertainty: Extending the utility of proxy variables with hierarchical models. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 2015, 6 (11), 13631371,  DOI: 10.1111/2041-210X.12429
    32. 32
      Drake, D. A. R.; Chan, F. T.; Briski, E.; Bailey, S. A.; MacIsaac, H. J. Assemblage structure: An overlooked component of human-mediated species movements among freshwater ecosystems. J. Limnol. 2014, 73 (s1), 108115,  DOI: 10.4081/jlimnol.2014.802
    33. 33
      Bradie, J.; Pietrobon, A.; Leung, B. Beyond species-specific assessments: An analysis and validation of environmental distance metrics for nonindigenous species risk assessment. Biol. Invasions 2015, 17 (12), 34553465,  DOI: 10.1007/s10530-015-0970-8
    34. 34
      Hanley, J. A.; Mcneil, B. J. The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiology 1982, 143, 2936,  DOI: 10.1148/radiology.143.1.7063747
    35. 35
      Leung, B.; Drake, J. M.; Lodge, D. M. Predicting invasions: Propagule pressure and the gravity of Allee effects. Ecology 2004, 85, 16511660,  DOI: 10.1890/02-0571
    36. 36
      Bradie, J.; Chivers, C.; Leung, B. Importing risk: Quantifying the propagule pressure-establishment relationship at the pathway level. Diversity Distrib. 2013, 19 (8), 10201030,  DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12081
    37. 37
      Bailey, S. A.; Vélez-Espino, L. A.; Johannsson, O. E.; Koops, M. A.; Wiley, C. J. Estimating establishment probabilities of Cladocera introduced at low density: An evaluation of the proposed ballast water discharge standards. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 2009, 66 (2), 261276,  DOI: 10.1139/F08-200
    38. 38
      Marine Ecology: A Comprehensive, Integrated Treatise on Life in Oceans and Coastal Waters; Kinne, O., Ed.; John Wiley & Sons Inc: London, UK, 1971; Vol. 1, Part 2.
    39. 39
      R Core Team. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, 2019; https://www.R-project.org.
    40. 40
      Canty, A.; Ripley B. boot: Bootstrap R (S-Plus) Functions . R package version 1.3–23, 2019.
    41. 41
      Wonham, M. J.; Walton, W. C.; Ruiz, G. M.; Frese, A. M.; Galil, B. S. Going to the source: Role of the invasion pathway in determining potential invaders. Mar. Ecol.: Prog. Ser. 2001, 215, 112,  DOI: 10.3354/meps215001
    42. 42
      Gray, D. K.; Johengen, T. H.; Reid, D. F.; MacIsaac, H. J. Efficacy of open-ocean ballast water exchange as a means of preventing invertebrate invasions between freshwater ports. Limnol. Oceanogr. 2007, 52 (6), 23862397,  DOI: 10.4319/lo.2007.52.6.2386
    43. 43
      Simard, N.; Plourde, S.; Gilbert, M.; Gollasch, S. Net efficacy of open ocean ballast water exchange on plankton communities. J. Plankton Res. 2011, 33 (9), 13781395,  DOI: 10.1093/plankt/fbr038
    44. 44
      Ruiz, G. M.; Smith, G. Biological study of container ships arriving to the Port of Oakland: Part B, ballast water exchange efficacy on eight container ships ; Final report submitted to the Port of Oakland, 2005.
    45. 45
      Bailey, S. A. Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Canadian Centre for Inland Waters, Burlington, ON. Unpublished work, 2020.
    46. 46
      Sturtevant, R.; Mason, D.; Rutherford, E.; Elgin, A.; Lower, E.; Martinez, F. Recent history of nonindigenous species in the Laurentian Great Lakes; An update to Mills et al., 1993 (25 years later). J. Great Lakes Res. 2019, 45 (6), 10111035,  DOI: 10.1016/j.jglr.2019.09.002
    47. 47
      National Research Council. Assessing the Relationship between Propagule Pressure and Invasion Risk in Ballast Water; The National Academies Press: Washington, DC, 2011.
    48. 48
      Sakai, A. K.; Allendorf, F. W.; Holt, J. S.; Lodge, D. M.; Molofsky, J.; With, K. A.; Baughman, S.; Cabin, R. J.; Cohen, J. E.; Ellstrand, N. C.; McCauley, D. E.; O’Neil, P.; Parker, I. M.; Thompson, J. N.; Weller, S. G. The population biology of invasive species. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 2001, 32, 305332,  DOI: 10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.32.081501.114037
  • Supporting Information

    Supporting Information

    ARTICLE SECTIONS
    Jump To

    The Supporting Information is available free of charge at https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.0c05238.

    • Information on the Canadian regions examined in this study, model parameter values, probability distributions, sensitivity analysis results, and supplementary model results (PDF)


    Terms & Conditions

    Most electronic Supporting Information files are available without a subscription to ACS Web Editions. Such files may be downloaded by article for research use (if there is a public use license linked to the relevant article, that license may permit other uses). Permission may be obtained from ACS for other uses through requests via the RightsLink permission system: http://pubs.acs.org/page/copyright/permissions.html.

Pair your accounts.

Export articles to Mendeley

Get article recommendations from ACS based on references in your Mendeley library.

Pair your accounts.

Export articles to Mendeley

Get article recommendations from ACS based on references in your Mendeley library.

You’ve supercharged your research process with ACS and Mendeley!

STEP 1:
Click to create an ACS ID

Please note: If you switch to a different device, you may be asked to login again with only your ACS ID.

Please note: If you switch to a different device, you may be asked to login again with only your ACS ID.

Please note: If you switch to a different device, you may be asked to login again with only your ACS ID.

MENDELEY PAIRING EXPIRED
Your Mendeley pairing has expired. Please reconnect