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Effects of Climate Change on Capacity Expansion Decisions of an Electricity Generation Fleet in the Southeast U.S.

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    Energy and Climate

    Effects of Climate Change on Capacity Expansion Decisions of an Electricity Generation Fleet in the Southeast U.S.
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    • Francisco Ralston Fonseca*
      Francisco Ralston Fonseca
      Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213, United States
      *Email: [email protected]
      More by Francisco Ralston Fonseca
      Orcidhttp://orcid.org/0000-0002-7367-5696
    • Michael Craig
      Michael Craig
      Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213, United States
      School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109, United States
      More by Michael Craig
      Orcidhttp://orcid.org/0000-0002-3031-5041
    • Paulina Jaramillo
      Paulina Jaramillo
      Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213, United States
      More by Paulina Jaramillo
    • Mario Bergés
      Mario Bergés
      Environmental and Civil Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213, United States
      More by Mario Bergés
    • Edson Severnini
      Edson Severnini
      Heinz College, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213, United States
      More by Edson Severnini
    • Aviva Loew
      Aviva Loew
      Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213, United States
      More by Aviva Loew
    • Haibo Zhai
      Haibo Zhai
      Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213, United States
      Civil and Architectural Engineering, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming 82071, United States
      More by Haibo Zhai
      Orcidhttp://orcid.org/0000-0001-8585-9559
    • Yifan Cheng
      Yifan Cheng
      Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98115, United States
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    • Bart Nijssen
      Bart Nijssen
      Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98115, United States
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    • Nathalie Voisin
      Nathalie Voisin
      Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98115, United States
      Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington 99354, United States
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    • John Yearsley
      John Yearsley
      Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98115, United States
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      Orcidhttp://orcid.org/0000-0002-2630-9589
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    Environmental Science & Technology

    Cite this: Environ. Sci. Technol. 2021, 55, 4, 2522–2531
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    https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.0c06547
    Published January 26, 2021
    Copyright © 2021 American Chemical Society
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    Abstract

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    The electric power sector in the United States faces many challenges related to climate change. On the demand side, climate change could shift demand patterns due to increased air temperatures. On the supply side, climate change could lead to deratings of thermal units due to changes in air temperature, water temperature, and water availability. Past studies have typically analyzed these risks separately. Here, we developed an integrated, multimodel framework to analyze how compounding risks of climate-change impacts on demand and supply affect long-term planning decisions in the power system. In the southeast U.S., we found that compounding climate-change impacts could result in a 35% increase in installed capacity by 2050 relative to the reference case. Participation of renewables, particularly solar, in the fleet increased, driven mostly by the expected increase in summertime peak demand. Such capacity requirements would increase investment costs by approximately 31 billion (USD 2015) over the next 30 years, compared to the reference case. These changes in investment decisions align with carbon emission mitigation strategies, highlighting how adaptation and mitigation strategies can converge.

    Copyright © 2021 American Chemical Society

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    • Additional details of modeling framework; detailed formulation of optimization model; parameters used in the capacity expansion model; and tables and figures with additional results (PDF)

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    Environmental Science & Technology

    Cite this: Environ. Sci. Technol. 2021, 55, 4, 2522–2531
    Click to copy citationCitation copied!
    https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.0c06547
    Published January 26, 2021
    Copyright © 2021 American Chemical Society
    Request reuse permissions

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