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Download Hi-Res ImageDownload to MS-PowerPointCite This:Environ. Sci. Technol. 2021, 55, 8, 5189-5198
    Energy and Climate

    Circularity of Lithium-Ion Battery Materials in Electric Vehicles
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    • Jessica Dunn
      Jessica Dunn
      Energy Systems, Energy and Efficiency Institute, University of California Davis, 1605 Tilia St #100, Davis, California 95616, United States
      More by Jessica Dunn
    • Margaret Slattery
      Margaret Slattery
      Energy Systems, Energy and Efficiency Institute, University of California Davis, 1605 Tilia St #100, Davis, California 95616, United States
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    • Alissa Kendall*
      Alissa Kendall
      Energy Systems, Energy and Efficiency Institute, University of California Davis, 1605 Tilia St #100, Davis, California 95616, United States
      Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California Davis, 1 Shields Avenue, Davis, California 95616, United States
      *Email: [email protected]
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      Orcidhttp://orcid.org/0000-0003-1964-9080
    • Hanjiro Ambrose
      Hanjiro Ambrose
      Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California Davis, 1 Shields Avenue, Davis, California 95616, United States
      Union of Concerned Scientists, 500 12th Street #340, Oakland, California 94607, United States
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    • Shuhan Shen
      Shuhan Shen
      Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California Davis, 1 Shields Avenue, Davis, California 95616, United States
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    Environmental Science & Technology

    Cite this: Environ. Sci. Technol. 2021, 55, 8, 5189–5198
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    https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.0c07030
    Published March 25, 2021
    Copyright © 2021 American Chemical Society
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    Abstract

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    Batteries have the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions from on-road transportation. However, environmental and social impacts of producing lithium-ion batteries, particularly cathode materials, and concerns over material criticality are frequently highlighted as barriers to widespread electric vehicle adoption. Circular economy strategies, like reuse and recycling, can reduce impacts and secure regional supplies. To understand the potential for circularity, we undertake a dynamic global material flow analysis of pack-level materials that includes scenario analysis for changing battery cathode chemistries and electric vehicle demand. Results are produced regionwise and through the year 2040 to estimate the potential global and regional circularity of lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, iron, aluminum, copper, and graphite, although the analysis is focused on the cathode materials. Under idealized conditions, retired batteries could supply 60% of cobalt, 53% of lithium, 57% of manganese, and 53% of nickel globally in 2040. If the current mix of cathode chemistries evolves to a market dominated by NMC 811, a low cobalt chemistry, there is potential for 85% global circularity of cobalt in 2040. If the market steers away from cathodes containing cobalt, to an LFP-dominated market, cobalt, manganese, and nickel become less relevant and reach circularity before 2040. For each market to benefit from the recovery of secondary materials, recycling and manufacturing infrastructure must be developed in each region.

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    • Cumulative vehicle scrappage rate in the US based off the Weibull distribution (p. S2) (Figure S1); potential circularity of cobalt from 2010 to 2040 in each region and under each cathode and sales scenario (p. S3) (Figure S2); potential circularity of lithium from 2010 to 2040 in each region and under each cathode and sales scenario (p. S4) (Figure S3); GWhs of retired EV battery capacity per region under the baseline sales scenario and assuming a 20% capacity loss from the point of manufacturing to retirement from the EV (p. S5) (Figure S4) (PDF)

    • EV sales forecast (Table S1); EV sales market share (Table S2); capacity regression (Table S3); capacity forecast (Table S4); cathode chemistry market share (Table S5); material results (Table S6); circularity (Table S7); average material weight (Table S8); MWh retired results (Table S9); bass diffusion (eqs S1–S8) and; references (XLSX)

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    Cite this: Environ. Sci. Technol. 2021, 55, 8, 5189–5198
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