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Policy Analysis

Unlocking Dysprosium Constraints for China’s 1.5 °C Climate Target
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  • Tao Dai
    Tao Dai
    Institute of Mineral Resource, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing, 100037, China
    Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing, 100037, China
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  • Yan-Fei Liu
    Yan-Fei Liu
    School of Earth Sciences and Resources, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
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  • Peng Wang*
    Peng Wang
    Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    *Email: [email protected]. Phone: +13700470472.
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    Orcidhttps://orcid.org/0009-0001-1145-9605
  • Yang Qiu
    Yang Qiu
    Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Maryland 20740, United States
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  • Nabeel Mancheri
    Nabeel Mancheri
    Rare Earth Industry Association, Diestsevest 14, 3000 Leuven, Belgium
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  • Wei Chen
    Wei Chen
    University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
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  • Jun-Xi Liu
    Jun-Xi Liu
    Department of Materials Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, The University Tokyo (Hongo Campus), 113-8654, 7 Chome-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo City, Tokyo Japan
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  • Wei-Qiang Chen*
    Wei-Qiang Chen
    Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    *Email: [email protected]. Phone: +86 592 6190 763.
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    Orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7686-2331
  • Heming Wang
    Heming Wang
    State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Eco-Industry, Northeastern University, Shenyang, Liaoning 110819, China
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  • An-Jian Wang*
    An-Jian Wang
    Institute of Mineral Resource, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing, 100037, China
    Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing, 100037, China
    *Email: [email protected]. Phone: +13601166429.
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Environmental Science & Technology

Cite this: Environ. Sci. Technol. 2023, 57, 38, 14113–14126
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https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.3c01327
Published September 14, 2023

Copyright © 2023 American Chemical Society. This publication is available under these Terms of Use.

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Abstract

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Some key low-carbon technologies, ranging from wind turbines to electric vehicles, are underpinned by the strong rare-earth-based permanent magnets of the Nd, Pr (Dy)–Fe–Nb type (NdFeB). These NdFeB magnets, which are sensitive to demagnetization with temperature elevation (the Curie point), require the addition of variable amounts of dysprosium (Dy), where an elevation of the Curie point is needed to meet operational conditions. Given that China is the world’s largest REE supplier with abundant REE reserves, the impact of an ambitious 1.5 °C climate target on China’s Dy supply chain has sparked widespread concern. Here, we explore future trends and innovation strategies associated with the linkage between Dy and NdFeBs under various climate scenarios in China. We find China alone is expected to exhaust the global present Dy reserve within the next 2–3 decades to facilitate the 1.5 °C climate target. By implementing global available innovation strategies, such as material substitution, reduction, and recycling, it is possible to avoid 48%–68% of China’s cumulative demand for Dy. Nevertheless, ongoing efforts in REE exploration and production are still required to meet China’s growing Dy demand, which will face competition from the United States, European Union, and other countries with ambitious climate targets. Thus, our analysis urges China and those nations to form wider cooperation in REE supply chains as well as in NdFeB innovation for the realization of a global climate-safe future.

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Synopsis

This article shows that China’s 1.5 °C climate target will deplete its domestic and global discovered Dy reserves by 2035 and 2045, and a very severe Dy shortage will constrain China and others to promote their low-carbon transition.

1. Introduction

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The conflicts between critical minerals supply and climate change mitigation pathways have received a growing interest. (1−3) Rare earth elements (REEs) are of great concern (4) due to their high criticality for low-carbon technologies. (5) Dysprosium (Dy), as one of the most risky and critical REEs, is used as an additive in the strongest magnets, neodymium–iron–boron permanent magnets (NdFeBs), (6) because it can improve coercivity and high-temperature properties to keep excellent magnetic performance. (7) These unique properties make Dy indispensable to support the rapid development of electric vehicles (EVs) equipped with synchronous NdFeB-based motors, (8) offshore wind turbines equipped with synchronous NdFeB-generators, (9) and other key applications where miniaturization rendered possible thanks to NdFeB is of major importance (e.g., air conditioner, industrial robot, hard disks, smartphones, portable electric and electronic equipment, defense systems). Accordingly, Dy is deemed a critical material by the United States (US), (10,11) Japan, (12) European Union (EU), (13,14) and Australia, (15,16) etc., which have released a series of reports to ensure supply to meet the increasing demand (Tables S2–S4). To avert the pressing global climate crisis, China has launched an ambitious low-carbon transition in line with its 1.5 °C climate target. Previous related work has explored the need and feasibility of decarbonization efforts in energy, (17) transportation, (18,19) material production, (20,21) or other systems. (22) Compared to those, the conflicts amid the linkages between China’s critical mineral supply chains and climate change mitigation pathways are not well explored. (23) This is particularly true for REEs given that China has abundant REEs reserve and significance influence in global REEs market. (24) However, under the 1.5 °C climate target, China is devoted to expanding its deployment of EVs, wind turbines, and other necessary low-carbon technologies at unprecedented scales and rates. Hence, we see an urgent need to focus on Dy and explore its future demand and supply under different climate scenarios, as to investigate the potential supply bottlenecks and solutions of REEs supply toward China’s low-carbon transition.
Previous studies on Dy have traced its historical flows and stocks at global, (25,26) regional (e.g., Europe), (27) and national (e.g., Japan, (28) China (7,29)) levels using material flow analysis. Moreover, studies focusing on the future demand of Dy have upsurged at both global, (9,30−35) and national (e.g., US, (32,36) Germany, (37) Netherlands, (38) Japan, (39) China (40−43)) levels for specific applications, and the results indicate that Dy demand is expected to rise rapidly. However, most of those previous studies only focus on one specific application of Dy, while the comprehensive and forward-looking analysis of all end-use applications with the consideration of technical innovations in NdFeBs has rarely been explored. This may lead to the limited understanding of potential mitigation strategies. Notably, the development of material substitution, reduction and improvements in recycling are three potential decoupling measures. (11,44,45) For instance, many corporations are currently engaged in creating new types of magnets to reduce or eliminate of REEs or Dy in NdFeBs (e.g., Toyota, (46) Tesla, (47) Niron Magnetics, (48) Hitachi (49)). Moreover, many motors producers have already prioritized lowering or eliminating REEs in motors via various approaches (e.g., traction motor, (50,51) electrically excited synchronous motor (EESM), (52,53) switched reluctance motor (45)). Given that more EVs and wind turbines start to reach their end-of-life (EoL) in the coming decades, secondary supply through recycling will become more feasible, (54,55) together fueled by some emerging efforts on recycling processes. (56) However, it is still unclear what would be the future trend of Dy demand and what would be the impacts of these potential decoupling measures on Dy supply and demand. Besides, in most studies focusing on future primary supply, the life-cycle losses, (57) which are significant for those critical minerals, are not considered in assessing the future demand and supply changes. This calls for a comprehensive and in-depth investigation on the nexus between the Dy supply chain with NdFeBs demand and the effectiveness of various decoupling strategies to guide further strategic policies.
In this study, we examine China’s Dy demand and supply associated with NdFeBs demand during 2021–2050 with three climate scenarios (the business-as-usual scenario (BAU), the stated policies scenario (STEPS), and the 1.5 °C scenario (1.5 °C), with details in Methods part) by integrating the history of the Dy cycle through material flow analysis during 2001–2020 (Figure 1). In particular, we provide a comprehensive projection of Dy demand in all expected NdFeB applications with a coverage of different phases of Dy supply chain from mining, refinery, trade, throughout to final recycling. Our results indicate that there will be a rising Dy supply shortage that may hinder China’s 1.5 °C climate target. Meanwhile, decoupling strategies including material substitution, reduction and recycling available at the global level could effectively alleviate Dy shortage, and further achieve a closed-loop in the long term (2036–2050). However, the supply shortage is likely to be inevitable in the short- to medium-term (2021–2035), and China’s Dy demand will need to partially rely on import from other countries. Thus, facing various constraints and the urgent need for low-carbon transition, we appeal to promote the linked cooperation between global climate change mitigation with international cooperation at supply chains of REE as well as other critical materials.

Figure 1

Figure 1. Framework for Dy-NdFeB future projection and decoupling strategies analysis (permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM), AC induction motor (ACIM), switched reluctance motor (SRM); permanent magnet gear middle speed (PMMS), permanent magnet gear high speed (PMHS), permanent magnet direct drive (PMDD)).

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2. Materials and Methods

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2.1. Linking NdFeBs Demand with Dy Supply Chains

2.1.1. System Boundary and Definition

The framework for the Dy cycle is shown in Figure S4. The Dy flows and stocks in mainland China during the period 2001–2050 are examined. The anthropogenic Dy cycle in the lithosphere can be divided into six stages: mining and beneficiation, refining and separation, fabrication, manufacturing, use, and waste and recycling. Dy flows into the refining and separation can be divided into two sources: Dy compounds from mining and beneficiation (primary supply) and Dy old scrap recycled from EoL (secondary supply). The quantification process is given as follows:
2.1.1.1. Historical Dy Stocks and Flows
Based on the historical Dy flows and stocks in previous studies, (7,58) we study the flows and stocks of Dy from 2001 to 2020 using a top-down dynamic material flow (MFA) method. The domestic Dy demand is calculated by eqs 1–2: (59,60)
DCj(t)=FCj(t)×Cj(t)×MRj(t)
(1)
DCDy(t)=∑DCj(t)
(2)
where j and t represent a final product and year; DCj(t) represents Dy demand of a final product j; FCj(t) represents the final product j demand; Cj(t) and MRj(t) represent the Dy intensity and the market penetration rate; and DCDy(t) represents the Dy demand of all final products. It is assumed that the Dy intensity is fixed and does not change in each final product during the studied period. However, the market penetration rate of final products could change due to technology advancements. We have detailed the quantification of historical Dy stocks and flows from 2001 to 2020 in Table S6–S11. The cumulative Dy cycle in China from 2001 to 2020 is shown in Figure S7.
2.1.1.2. Future Dy Stocks and Flows
We apply the stock-driven model and specific growth rate to simulate future final products demand from 2021 to 2050. (59) With the rapid development of the economy, the per thousand ownerships of vehicles, the per hundred ownerships of mobile phones and laptops, and the per hundred families of household appliances, computers, and electric bicycles will gradually saturate. The stock-driven approach by logistic growth model to predict future demand can be calculated by eqs 3–6. (61)
Nj(t)=Njmax/(1−Aj×e(−B×(t−t0)))
(3)
Aj=−e(−Bj×(t1/2−t0))
(4)
Sj(t)=Nj(t)×H(t)
(5)
CFj(t)=Sj(t)−Sj(t−1)+Outflowj(t)
(6)
where j and t represent a final product and year; Nj(t) represents the ownerships of the quantities; Njmax represents the ownerships of the saturation quantities; t0 represents the initial year; and Aj and Bj are two parameters: Aj can be calculated by eq 4, and Bj is the growth rate of retention rate. H(t) presents the total quantities of households or the total quantities of population; Sj(t) presents the stock; and CFj(t) and Outflowj(t) represent the final products demand and the old scrap.
It is difficult to calculate the stocks of the other final products (Table S16). Therefore, we use the specific growth rate method to calculate the demand, as shown in eq 7.
CSj(t)=CSj(0)×(1+aj)t
(7)
where CSj(t) is the final product demand; CSj(0) is the base year demand; and aj is the specific growth rate.
The key model parameters are shown in Table 1.
Table 1. Description and Assumptions of Key Model Parameters
Key ParametersDescriptions/AssumptionsDetails
PopulationIn response to the aging population, the Chinese government implemented separate “two-child” and “two-child policy” in 2014 and a “three-child policy” in 2021. We used the medium scenario that the people will start decreasing from 2032 and will be 1.3694 billion in 2050. (62)Table S14
Urbanization rateThe urbanization rate will reach 80% in 2050. (63) The total of urban families is 2.9 persons per family and rural families are 3.9 persons per family. (64)Table S14
Stock-driven modelVehicles, (65) electric bicycles, wind turbines, (66) refrigerators, wash machines, air conditioners, microwave ovens, vacuum cleaners, desktops laptops, domestic robots, mobile phones. (59,64,67)Table S15
Specific growth rate methodHigh-speed trains, (67) elevators, industrial robots, MRI machines. (59)Table S16
Passenger vehicle ownership and BEV market sharePassenger vehicle ownership and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) market share is assumed to increase. With 425 vehicles per 1000 people, and BEVs approximately 17.4% of passenger vehicle ownership by 2050 in the BAU scenario; 350 vehicles per 1000 people, BEVs approximately 50% of passenger vehicle ownership by 2050 in the STEPS scenario; 350 vehicles per 1000 people, BEVs approximately 75.8% of passenger vehicle ownership by 2050 in the 1.5 °C scenario. (65)Figure S6
Wind turbines installationThe accumulative amount of new wind turbines installation is 1826 GW, 3006 GW, and 4186 GW in the studied scenarios. (68)Figure S6

2.2. Scenario Integration and Simulation

2.2.1. Climate Change Targets Scenarios

Three climate scenarios are considered to represent different future demand trajectories of vehicles and wind turbines, namely the Business As Usual Scenario (BAU), Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), and 1.5 °C Scenario (1.5 °C), which are adopted from World Resources Institute (for vehicles) (65) and literature (for wind turbines). (68) The BAU scenario incorporates the policies and measures that governments have already put in place, as well as the likely effects of announced policies that are expressed in official targets or plans. The STEPS scenario means estimating the most feasible vehicle and wind power technology paths in the future and analyzing the emission reduction potential, in combination with current and most likely future policies. The 1.5 °C scenario represents the achievement of net zero emissions in the transportation and energy sectors by 2050.

2.2.2. Decoupling Strategies Scenarios

In this work, material substitution and reduction are envisioned to enhance current efforts to reduce Dy demand. Such strategies include reduction scenario (NdFeB with lower Dy intensity, defined reduction); two material substitution scenarios (state-of-the-art NdFeB with zero Dy, defined element substitution; and next-generation REE-free motors innovation, defined component substitution). We design three scenarios based on three strategies: reduction, reduction and element substitution, and reduction and component substitution. The main assumptions of three strategies are described in Table 2. Besides, we design two recycling scenarios to estimate the potential secondary Dy supply. One assumed that the EoL recycling rate would reach 40% by 2050 (69) based on historical levels, which is defined as reference recycling. The other assumed state-of-the-art motor recovery technology from 2025 onward (56) and established the recycling policy, regulation, or legislation for EoL, which defined improving recycling systems.
Table 2. Main Assumptions of Material Substitution, Reduction, and Recycling Strategies
ScenariosStrategiesDescriptions/AssumptionsDetail
ReductionNdFeB with lower Dy intensityAssume that evolutionary progress will reduce the amount of Dy in NdFeB, which is defined as reduction. (40,43,70,71) For example, Toyota creates a new magnet aimed at reducing REEs by up to 50%. (46) China develops heavy rare earth elements (HREEs) reduction technologies such as grain refinement, grain boundary diffusion, and grain boundary regulation. (72) Tesla in US managed to reduce 25% REE contented in their Model 3 in 2017–2022. (47)Table S19
Material substitutionState-of-the-art NdFeB with zero DyAssume that state-of-the-art NdFeB with zero Dy, which is defined as element substitution. (40,43,70,71) For example, Dy and neodymium (Nd) were replaced with lanthanum (La) and cerium (Ce) to suppress the deterioration of coercivity and heat resistance and reduce costs by Toyota. (46) Niron Magnetics in US develops a new Niron Clean Earth Magnet, which manufacturing process combines mature metallurgical methods to deliver high performance magnets at half the cost, and have already partnered with 6 global leading magnet equipment manufacturers. (48)Table S19
Next-generation REE-free motors innovationAssume that revolutionary breakthrough for next-generation REE-free motors innovation, which is defined as component substitution, such as new traction motors. (40,43,70,71,73) Mahle develops a new magnet-free, 95% efficient electric motor with REEs-free. Through inductive and contactless power transmission, new traction motors are wear-free and particularly efficient at high speeds. It will be expected to begin mass production for passenger vehicles in 2023 or 2024. (50)Table S20
Improving recycling systemsState-of-the-art motor recovery technologyAssume that state-of-the-art motor recovery technology, such as pyrometallurgical recycling process. Nissan and Waseda University in Japan jointly developed a recycling process for electrified vehicle motors. The new process efficiently recovers high-purity REE compounds from motor magnets, a practical application targeted for 2025 toward the 1.5 °C climate target. It can recover 98% of the motor’s HREEs. This method also reduces the recovery process and work time by approximately 50% compared to the current way because there is no need to demagnetize the magnets, nor remove and disassemble them. (56)Table S22
Recycling policy, regulation, or legislationAssume that the EoL follows the principle of “Extended Producer Responsibility” and established the policy, regulation, or legislation (i.e., E-waste). (54,55)Table S23
Reference recycling Assume that the EoL recycling rate would reach 40% by 2050 (69) based on historical levels. 

2.3. Future Dy Supply Chain Analysis

2.3.1. Primary Supply

We designed two primary supply scenarios. One is called primary supply (with quota) scenario, which contains the primary supply (quota) and the primary supply (others). China has been implementing a production quota policy for REE mining. Dy is mined along with other REEs, and the rapidly growing Dy production could lead to a surplus of other REEs. Thus, the primary supply (quota) from 2021 to 2030 is based on the previous research. (74) It is assumed to increase with an annual growth rate of 1.5% from 2031 to 2050 (details in Figure S12). The primary supply (others) mainly includes import volumes from other countries. The other scenario is called primary supply (without quota). Given the significant of Dy supply in the 1.5 °C climate target, China abandons its production quota policy and further rapidly expand the primary capacity to meet the demand.

2.3.2. Secondary Supply

The secondary supply is modeled in different scenarios as follows:
2.3.2.1. Reference Recycling Scenario
The secondary supply can be estimated by eq 8 during 2021–2050.
SSj(t)=Outflowj(t)×EEj(t)
(8)
where j and t refer to a final product and year; SSj(t) and EEj(t) refer to secondary supply and recycling rate; and Outflowj(t) represents the old scrap.
2.3.2.2. Improving Recycling Systems Scenario
The secondary supply can be estimated by eqs 8 and 9 during 2021–2025 and eqs 10 and 8 during 2026–2050.
EEj(t)=CRj(t)×DRj(t)×RRj(t)
(9)
EEj(t)=CRj(t)×RRj(t)
(10)
where CRj(t), DRj(t), and RRj(t) refer to the final product collection rate, component efficiency rate disassembly, and efficiency rate recycling, respectively.

2.3.3. Import Volumes and Import Dependency

We assume the Dy concentrates trade is the same as that in 2020 in our studies in the following three decades (Figure S5), due to difficulty in assuming future trade pattern changes. In other words, the import share from other countries is as the same as that in 2020. The import volumes from 2021 to 2050 can be calculated by eq 11, and the import dependency can be calculated by eq 12.
IMDy(t)=DCDy(t)−SDy(t)
(11)
IMDDy(t)=IMDy(t)DCDy(t)×100%
(12)
where IMDy(t) presents the import volumes; IMDDy(t) represents the import dependency; SDy(t) presents the total supply (primary supply (quota) plus secondary supply); and DCDy(t) represents the Dy demand.

2.4. Uncertainty Analysis

We model with a normal distribution to characterize the combined impact of parameters uncertainties. The uncertainty ranges are categorized into low, medium, and high. (75) The low level (2%) refers to the data directly collected from the official statistics that are more reliable such as parameters of REE concentrates, final products, and trade volume. The medium level (5%) refers to the data collected from the literature that are medium reliable, such as parameters of market penetration, Dy intensity, and final product demand. The high level (10%) refers to the data estimated based on data sources that are less reliable, such as the parameters of recycling rate, material substitution rate, and reduction rate. To explore the uncertainties of our results, we performed Monte Carlo simulation for 10,000 times, and the final results can be found in Figure S29 of Supporting Information. Meanwhile, we further explore the validity and limitation of our work in the discussion part.

3. Results

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3.1. Skyrocketing Dy Demand in Low-Carbon NdFeB Applications

We first traced Dy flows along China’s supply chain in 2020 and their corresponding future potential changes under different climate scenarios (Figure 2A–B). We find Dy demand will rise by around 5–10-fold, from 2.4 kt/year in 2020 to 13.1, 19.0, and 25.3 kt/year by 2050 under the BAU (Figure 2C), STEPS (Figure 2D), and 1.5 °C scenarios (Figure 2E), respectively. The cumulative Dy demand during 2021–2050 will be 228.8 kt, 309.4 kt, and 392.7 kt under the three scenarios, respectively, approximately 17–30-fold compared with that in past three decades.

Figure 2

Figure 2. China’s Dy flows, stocks, and future demand. (A) Supply chain of China’s Dy cycles in 2020. (B) Supply chain of China’s Dy cycles in 2050 under the STEPS and 1.5 °C scenarios. (C–E) Dy demand under the BAU, STEPS, and 1.5 °C scenarios.

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In terms of the applications that drive Dy demand, we analyze Dy demand in two different types of NdFeBs applications (i.e., emerging low-carbon applications and traditional applications). We find that the share of Dy demand in low-carbon applications is expected to increase from 42% to approximately 82% in the 1.5 °C scenario over the next three decades. In particular, the future Dy demand will be dominated by EVs, which will increase significantly by 14-fold from 2020 to 2050 (reaching 4.6 kt/year) under the BAU scenario. Under the more ambitious STEPS and 1.5 °C scenarios, the Dy demand in EVs will further rise by 27- and 41-fold, respectively, over the same period. The cumulative Dy demand in EVs during 2021–2050 will reach as high as 94.6, 158.7, and 218.1 kt under the BAU, STEPS, and 1.5 °C scenarios, respectively, which account for 41%–56% of Dy cumulative demand. Wind turbines, despite the wide attention captured in previous studies, (9,34,76,77) will only account for 18%–24% of Dy cumulative demand, although its demand for Dy will surge by 3–8-fold up to 2050 under three studied scenarios. The cumulative Dy demand in the wind turbines will reach 40.3, 68.2, and 96.1 kt under the three studied scenarios during 2021–2050. In addition, Dy demand in traditional applications will account for only 18%–41% of Dy cumulative demand during 2021–2050. Among which, elevators and industrial robots are the major applications, whose demands for Dy will be 2.3 and 0.8 kt/year in 2050, respectively, under three climate scenarios.

3.2. Unearthing Global Present Dy Minerals to Support China’s NdFeB Demand

We investigate the future potential sources of Dy supply to meet the expected demand in China in Figure 3. For the purpose of resource conservation and environmental protection, China’s domestic Dy primary supply is regulated with a production quota policy. (78) China implemented production quotas for REE concentrates in 2006, and HREEs production accounted for 13.7% of the total REE production by 2020 (Figure S11). If this quota policy continues, and the future global Dy primary supply is assumed to follow the projection provided by Roskill, (74) as shown in the primary supply (with quota) scenario, China’s Dy primary supply (quota) will be 2.7 kt/year in 2050 under all of the three scenarios, which can meet only 11%–21% of its domestic demand of that year, so it indicates that China has to seek other sources of Dy (e.g., from import, marked as primary supply (others) in Figure 3A–C) to meet its domestic demand. In 2050, China’s primary supply (others) will reach 7.4 kt/year in the BAU scenario, 11.6 kt/year in the STEPS scenario, and 16.4 kt/year in the 1.5 °C scenario (Figure 3D).

Figure 3

Figure 3. Future Dy total supply and cumulative primary supply. (A–C) Dy total supply (primary supply plus secondary supply) under the BAU, STEPS, and 1.5 °C scenarios. (D) Dy cumulative primary supply (without quota) relative to China’s and global present Dy reserve.

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However, if China abandons its production quota policy (as shown in the primary supply (without quota) scenario in Figure 3A–C, the Dy primary supply in 2050 can be enlarged by 4–8-fold compared to the case with the production quota policy (reaching 10.2 kt/year in the BAU scenario, 14.4 kt/year in the STEPS scenario, and 19.1 kt/year in the 1.5 °C scenario in 2050), enabling the domestic supply to meet its demand at the cost of negative environmental impacts. Under three climate scenarios, China’s domestic gross cumulative demand for Dy would be as high as 286.3 385.1, and 488.5 kt, respectively. Unless further exploration for REE in China and worldwide is actively conducted and new reserves are identified, the projected high Dy demand may lead to the depletion of China’s present Dy reserve before 2035 in all three scenarios and even to the depletion of global present Dy reserve in 2045. Furthermore, if China only sources Dy from its own present Dy reserve, it is unlikely to achieve its ambitious climate targets and even the BAU scenario. Such a Dy shortage may lead to a gap of around 77 million of EVs and 3040 GW of planned wind turbines capacity that are needed to achieve the climate target under 1.5 °C scenario by 2050 (Figure S21).

3.3. Impacts of Available Decoupling Strategies

We further explore China’s Dy supply shortage and the potentials that NdFeB’s innovation strategies could alleviate in Figure 4. Several widely proposed strategies (8,9,29,79) are considered, including reduction (NdFeB with lower Dy intensity), material substitution (element substitution (state-of-the-art NdFeB with zero Dy), component substitution (next-generation REE-free motors innovation), and improving recycling systems (state-of-the-art motor recovery technology, and recycling policy, regulation, or legislation). These strategies are assessed through a total of 12 scenarios (as detailed in Table 2). We find that the demand side strategies (e.g., reduction, element substitution, component substitution) can effectively decrease the cumulative Dy demand (during 2021–2050) by 32%–52% (Figure 4). Simultaneously, with the implementation of improved recycling systems improvements, the secondary supply in 2050 would potentially increase to 6.2 kt/year in the BAU scenario, 9.7 kt/year in the STEPS scenario, and 13.1 kt/year in the 1.5 °C scenario, approximately 2–5-fold compared to the primary supply (with quota) of the same year. The cumulative secondary supply from 2021 to 2050 will reach 78.8 104.6, and 125.9 kt under three studied scenarios, respectively, which is equivalent to 6%–7% of cumulative Dy supply shortage during the same period.

Figure 4

Figure 4. Dy demand and supply combine with material substitution, reduction, and improving recycling systems strategies. (A–C) Dy demand and supply with improving recycling systems strategy under the BAU, STEPS, and 1.5 °C scenarios. (D–F) Dy demand and supply with improving recycling systems and reduction strategies under the BAU, STEPS, and 1.5 °C scenarios. (G–I) Dy demand and supply with improving recycling systems, reduction, and element substitution strategies under the BAU, STEPS and 1.5 °C scenarios. (J–L) Dy demand and supply with improving recycling systems, reduction, and component substitution strategies under the BAU, STEPS, and 1.5 °C scenarios.

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In the short- to medium-term (2021–2035), despite these considered efforts on both the supply and demand sides, Dy shortage is likely to be inevitable for China under all scenarios. Our results show that Dy supply shortage will peak at 1.1 kt/year in 2025, 1.8 kt/year in 2034, and 3.0 kt/year in 2035, in the BAU, STEPS, and 1.5 °C scenarios respectively when strategies including reduction, element substitution, and improving recycling systems (Figure 4G–I). Cumulatively, there will still be a 10%-23% shortage of Dy supply before the total supply can meet demand. In the long term (2036–2050), we find China’s Dy demand can be met with the total supply in most scenarios (with the earliest being by 2036) except for the STEPS and 1.5 °C scenarios with strategies including reduction and improving recycling systems. Moreover, we find the secondary Dy supply could solely meet demand after 2048 in the BAU, STEPS, and 1.5 °C scenarios when strategies including reduction, component substitution, and improving recycling systems (Figure 4J–L). This also indicates that combined efforts in technology advancement, investment, and laws that are intended to form a circular economy framework could help to achieve the closed loop of Dy.

3.4. China’s Inevitable Reliance on Global Resources

We also quantify China’s Dy supply from import as well as its import dependency (the ratio of demand minus supply) to demand) during 2021–2050, as shown in Figure 5. We find that China needs to import as much as 195.4, 295.2, and 398.6 kt Dy gross under the three studied scenarios during 2021–2050 to meet its demand (Figures S16 and 5A). As a result, China’s import dependency for Dy will rise rapidly and exceeds 50% after 2025 in all scenarios. Moreover, the import dependency will continue to grow and peak at 70% in 2035 in the BAU scenario, 80% in 2040 in the STEPS scenario, and 85% in 2041 in the 1.5 °C scenario. Such a high import dependency implies that China will not only lose the advantage in domestic resources, but also consume the resources from the rest of the world. For example, Myanmar, (80) which is one of the non-OECD Asia countries, has become one of the world’s major sources of HREEs resources. Yet our results indicate that China would potentially import a cumulative of 156.5, 234.9, and 317.0 kt Dy from the non-OECD Asia under three studied scenarios during 2021–2050. This is likely to deplete the present Dy reserve in these countries in 2050, 2041, and 2038, respectively (Figure 5A). Besides, China’s cumulative Dy import from Myanmar will increase to 155.2 kt in the BAU scenario, 220.4 kt in the STEPS scenario, and 297.4 kt in the 1.5 °C scenario, followed by the US (16.1, 24.3, and 32.8 kt, respectively, under the three scenarios) and Madagascar (11.3, 17.1, and 23.1 kt, respectively, under the three scenarios) (Figures S16 and 5A).

Figure 5

Figure 5. The change of Dy import dependency and the cumulative import volumes. (A) Dy cumulative import volumes from global during 2021–2050 under the STEPS and 1.5 °C scenarios (MOZ: Madagascar; MDG: Mozambique; MMR: Myanmar (Burma); THA: Thailand; VAN: Vietnam; MYS: Malaysia; USA:US; AUS: Australia; CHN: China; RUS: Russian Federation; SEA: The Southeast Asian). (B–D) Dy import dependency with material substitution, reduction and improving recycling systems strategies under the BAU, STEPS and 1.5 °C scenarios. (E-G) Dy cumulative primary supply related to China’s and global Dy reserve during 2021–2050 with material substitution, reduction, and improving recycling systems strategies under the BAU, STEPS, and 1.5 °C scenarios.

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If the above-mentioned strategies on material substitution, reduction, and improving recycling systems were implemented, the import dependency can be reduced to a large extent and its peak will not exceed 50% (Figure 5B–D). Still, China will not have enough Dy reserve to support its Dy demand needed to achieve 1.5 °C scenario, and China’s present Dy reserve will be depleted around 2040 (Figure 5F). Moreover, in the short- to medium-term (2021–2035), the import dependency will be around 20%–60%. This further implies that global cooperation in REE supply will be essential for China to achieve its ambitious low-carbon future.

3.5. Uncertainties and Limitations

Due to the uncertain integration of multiple input variables, most flows and stocks had acceptable uncertainties, and the results are shown in Figure S29. The import dependency shows a relatively high variation of ±10.2% due to the uncertainty related to many input variables (e.g., import volumes and Dy intensity). The Dy demand under the BAU scenario, STEPS scenario, and 1.5 °C scenario has a relatively high uncertainty (±9.8%) caused by market penetration rates and Dy intensities of final products, which are deemed to be the uncertainty sources with the largest impacts. Given that those are key parameters for future trends, our analysis of emerging technologies (i.e., reduction and material substitution) on Dy demand can be viewed to explore their potential impacts on our results as well. Furthermore, given the limited transparency in data of the Dy supply chain in China, our MFA results are also obtained with substantial uncertainties. To overcome this, we have employed a diverse range of methodologies to validate them, together with the help of mass balance principle and cross check with different data sources (see Table S5). Still, we also suggest more transparency in the Dy supply chain.
Despite these uncertainties, our study shows considerable consistency with the results of previous published studies (Table S27). For instance, the Dy demand of wind power in our study falls within the range of numbers reported in Wang et al. (42) and Li et al. (9) (as explored in Table S27). Regarding the Dy demand in automobiles and electric vehicles, there is a limited difference with the previous studies (Table S27).

4. Discussion

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National efforts to mitigate climate change and treating it as an international crisis can not only achieve various local benefits (e.g., air pollutions, public health, (81) etc.) but also bring wider impacts for global well-beings. (82) China, as the world’s largest emitter of CO2, (83) has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, (84) which can individually mitigate global warming (85) and further help to stimulate wider efforts toward Paris agreement. Previous studies (69,86,87) highlighted that the future Dy demand will rapidly increase, and our systematic analysis further reveals that China’s low-carbon transition may deplete not only the China’s present Dy reserve but also the global reserve. In a pervasive view, China’s present Dy reserve can only support the development of 19% of the required EVs (i.e., 18 of 95 million units) and build 27% of planned wind turbines (i.e., 1146 of 4186 GW) based on the current Dy use rates of these technologies under the 1.5 °C scenario (details in Figure S21). Together with other studies, (29,88,29) our results confirm the ambitious climate targets may face severe constraints from HREEs and other critical minerals (e.g., cobalt, (29,88) lithium (29)), which desire wider attentions under Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) planning.
Our results indicate that the Dy supply constraint, as a limiting factor for clean energy transition, may become severe along the pathway of global climate change mitigation, particularly for those nations without stable Dy supply. Indeed, China has long been considered abundant in REE reserve, (69,89) and our study reveals China, by itself, will deplete both the domestic and global present Dy reserves in the studied scenarios. Aside from China, EU, US, Japan, and other counties are also promoting their own ambitious net-zero targets by or before 2050, (45,90,91) which will also require large-scale roll-out of EVs and wind turbines. These actions will further exacerbate the REE supply shortage and accelerate the depletion of the global REE reserve. If the relevant resource supplies are not well managed, then there would be more frequent supply risks and market manipulations that may be intensified by geopolitical competition. This is especially true given the fact that the current global REE market is highly volatile due to geopolitics. Thus, the ongoing 1.5 °C climate target will cause higher dependences for the US, EU, and even China on some emerging HREEs suppliers (e.g., Myanmar, Madagascar, Vietnam, Russia, Greenland, etc.). Again, the rising markets in those nations will require higher efforts to develop new forms of international cooperation to secure the Dy and other REEs which facilitate global efforts on climate change mitigation. This would move a step toward implementing the recommendations in the UN International Resource Panel report titled “Mineral Resources Governance in the 21st Century: Gearing Extractive Industries toward Sustainable Development”. (92)
Aside from physical production constraint, there are various other constraints on the Dy supply that are worth noticing. In particular, the REE mining has environmental impacts ranging from pollution (permanent loss of ecosystems, soil erosion, air pollution), (81,93−95) high energy, water, CO2 emission, and waste materials generations. (95,96) In addition, the further refinery and separate of Dy become very challenging due to the concentration of radioactive waste like thorium. (95,96) In those emerging suppliers, Greenland has great potential to develop new REE mines, but Greenland’s parliament has passed legislation that ceases development of the Kuannersuit mine. (97) There have been public concerns in REE mining and processing countries like Malaysia. (98) As an emerging Dy supplier, China’s import volumes from Myanmar are highly volatile due to the political situation, (99) high environment impact, alleged human right violations, and the price hike of Dy2O3 (which has risen approximately 50% since 2021) (Figure S25). In other words, how to ensure the stability and sustainability of REE trade is also a severe challenge.
Therefore, international collaborations on REE supply chains are highly needed at the upstream, downstream, and recycling sides. First, global efforts are required to explore and develop new REE (particularly HREEs) projects. Meanwhile, there is a need to distinguish between light rare earth elements (LREEs) and HREEs (or at element level) reserves and provide solid information in various REE projects investigation, to avoid misleading market actions (e.g., Turkey discovered 694 Mt of REEs reserves). (100) Furthermore, the most challenging aspect is the mining and extraction of REE, particularly green processing technologies that deal with radioactive and other wastes. The development of these technologies requires global cooperation and the construction of multiple separation factories. Second, our findings illustrate that the Dy shortage can be reduced by 65%–74% through material substitution, reduction, and improving recycling systems in 2035 under the 1.5 °C scenario. These strategies are very promising and have been developed by Germany (e.g., traction motor with magnet-free), (50) Japan (e.g., new magnet with HREEs free, (46) reduction (49)), US (e.g., traction motor with HREEs free), (51) Korea (e.g., reduction technology), (101) which are summarized in Tables S19–S20. Similarly, improving recycling systems technologies have also been developed in countries like Japan, (56) US, (102) and Korea (103) (summarized in Table S22). We further summarized 17 types of breakthrough technologies into 4 overarching categories in Figure S17: (a) Dy-less technologies, (b) Dy-free magnets (1–3), (c) Dy-free motors (4–9), and (d) improving recycling systems technologies. In general, we highlight their priorities in different time periods. In the short term (2021–2025), the priority should focus on the commercialization of Dy-less technologies, which turns to be the most effective strategies given their technical readiness and less demand for Dy. In the medium term (2026–2035), our study highlights the importance of advancing technologies of Dy-free magnets and motors, which can further reduce the Dy demand and alleviate the Dy shortage. In the long term (2036–2050), the “improving recycling systems” may be the most effective strategies, given massive of final products reach their EoL.
It is worth noting that given the distributed strengths of green mining, extraction, processing, and recycling of REE in different nations, there are three global actions to establish an international collaboration based on the existing framework of global cooperation on climate change mitigation (e.g., UN Climate Change Conference). First, we need an international organization that compiles and synthesizes comprehensive solutions to alleviate critical material shortages and facilitates the communication of vital information that is needed for policy decisions. International Energy Agency (IEA) is likely a good choice for this linkage. Second, we also need an international organization that can facilitate the timely exchange of exploration information and accelerate the sharing of those advanced technologies that can promote the efficient and sustainable REE supply by establishing international collaborations across the value chain. Rare Earth Industry Association (REIA) or United States Geology Survey (USGS) is likely to be a good choice as a facilitator. Third, it is important to establish a global organization that serves as a facilitator for collaboration among stakeholders involved in the advancement of Dy-less technologies, Dy-free magnets or motor technologies, and recycling technologies. This organization aims to promote international cooperation and reduce geopolitical conflicts. REIA is likely to be a good choice as a facilitator.
In addition to material substitution, system substitution represents a viable strategy for mitigating the Dy shortage. A shift away from wind power to other low/zero carbon electricity production technologies (e.g., solar photovoltaic (PV), nuclear power, and geothermal energy) would reduce REE demand. Currently, the IEA, International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the European Commission, (104) etc. have a comprehensive analysis of solar PV development, and solar PV capacity has been experiencing a surge, with a 21-fold increase from 2010 to 2021. (105) However, the shortages in crystalline silicon can be a bottleneck in solar PV technology. (9,106) Furthermore, expanding solar PV capacity may require building smarter long-distance transmission lines to overcome to regional variability of electricity supply and demand. (107) Nuclear power accounted for approximately 10% of global electricity generation in 2020, (108) and many countries have announced plans to invest in nuclear power. (109) However, nuclear power is a complex technology, with political, economic, environmental, financial, and social dimensions. (110) Furthermore, nuclear power technologies face also restrictions due to concerns related to safety and nuclear waste managements, (108) and nuclear power has begun to fade in advanced economies. (107) Thus, global efforts are required to promote a comprehensive framework for minerals and metals production, (45,111,112) and this framework is key to achieve the global transition toward a net zero-carbon energy production. For the transportation sector, the shared mobility services, active transportation, and public transportation could help to reduce resources-intensive passenger vehicle ownership levels by 35%, (109,113) which can also contribute to the reduction of REEs demand. Therefore, global efforts are required to establish the public transportation networks, provide the access to ride-hailing services, and improve shared mobility services to facilitate a low-carbon transition in the transportation sector.
In summary, climate change is a global public bad. (114) Dy and other critical minerals are not equally distributed at the global level. This huge mismatch between national critical mineral supply and their demand due to mitigation efforts needs to be well balanced through global cooperative actions. We show the Dy supply shortage is likely to be inevitable in China as well as for other regions, such as the US, Europe, etc. Thus, there is a need to urge linked cooperation between climate change mitigation and critical mineral supply to guarantee our climate-safe future.

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Author Information

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  • Corresponding Authors
    • Peng Wang - Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China;  University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;  Orcidhttps://orcid.org/0009-0001-1145-9605;  Email: [email protected]
    • Wei-Qiang Chen - Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China;  University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;  Orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7686-2331;  Email: [email protected]
    • An-Jian Wang - Institute of Mineral Resource, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing, 100037, China;  Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing, 100037, China;  Email: [email protected]
  • Authors
    • Tao Dai - Institute of Mineral Resource, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing, 100037, China;  Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing, 100037, China
    • Yan-Fei Liu - School of Earth Sciences and Resources, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
    • Yang Qiu - Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Maryland 20740, United States
    • Nabeel Mancheri - Rare Earth Industry Association, Diestsevest 14, 3000 Leuven, Belgium
    • Wei Chen - University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
    • Jun-Xi Liu - Department of Materials Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, The University Tokyo (Hongo Campus), 113-8654, 7 Chome-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo City, Tokyo Japan
    • Heming Wang - State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Eco-Industry, Northeastern University, Shenyang, Liaoning 110819, China
  • Author Contributions

    T.D and Y.F.L contributed to the work equally and should be regarded as cofirst authors. P.W. and W.Q.C conceived the idea and the research. T.D, P.W., and Y.Q. developed the framework. Y.F.L, H.M.W, W.C., and J.X.L contributed to scenarios design and data collection. W.Q.C., P.W., N.A.M., and A.J.W. enhanced the scenarios and discussion international alliance. T.D., Y.F.L., and P.W. drafted the article. T.D., Y.F.L., P.W., Y.Q., and W.C. analyzed the results and contributed to writing this article.

  • Notes
    The authors declare no competing financial interest.

Acknowledgments

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This study is funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2021YFC2901801), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71961147003, and 72274187, 72088101), as well as two industrial projects (No. 20224ABC03W05 and BFXT-2021-D-00061).

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    Duan, H.; Zhou, S.; Jiang, K.; Bertram, C.; Harmsen, M.; Kriegler, E.; van Vuuren, D. P.; Wang, S.; Fujimori, S.; Tavoni, M. Assessing China’s Efforts to Pursue the 1.5 °C Warming Limit. Science 2021, 372, 378– 385,  DOI: 10.1126/science.aba8767
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    Assessing China's efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit
    Duan, Hongbo; Zhou, Sheng; Jiang, Kejun; Bertram, Christoph; Harmsen, Mathijs; Kriegler, Elmar; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wang, Shouyang; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Tavoni, Massimo; Ming, Xi; Keramidas, Kimon; Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James
    Science (Washington, DC, United States) (2021), 372 (6540), 378-385CODEN: SCIEAS; ISSN:1095-9203. (American Association for the Advancement of Science)
    Given the increasing interest in keeping global warming below 1.5°C, a key question is what this would mean for China's emission pathway, energy restructuring, and decarbonization. By conducting a multimodel study, we find that the 1.5°C-consistent goal would require China to reduce its carbon emissions and energy consumption by more than 90 and 39%, resp., compared with the "no policy" case. Neg. emission technologies play an important role in achieving near-zero emissions, with captured carbon accounting on av. for 20% of the total redns. in 2050. Our multimodel comparisons reveal large differences in necessary emission redns. across sectors, whereas what is consistent is that the power sector is required to achieve full decarbonization by 2050. The cross-model avs. indicate that China's accumulated policy costs may amt. to 2.8 to 5.7% of its gross domestic product by 2050, given the 1.5°C warming limit.
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    Benveniste, H.; Oppenheimer, M.; Fleurbaey, M. Climate Change Increases Resource-Constrained International Immobility. Nat. Clim. Chang. 2022, 12, 634– 641,  DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01401-w
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    Yang, X.; Nielsen, C. P.; Song, S.; McElroy, M. B. Breaking the Hard-to-abate Bottleneck in China’s Path to Carbon Neutrality with Clean Hydrogen. Nat. Energy. 2022, 7, 955– 965,  DOI: 10.1038/s41560-022-01114-6
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    Breaking the hard-to-abate bottleneck in China's path to carbon neutrality with clean hydrogen
    Yang, Xi; Nielsen, Chris P.; Song, Shaojie; McElroy, Michael B.
    Nature Energy (2022), 7 (10), 955-965CODEN: NEANFD; ISSN:2058-7546. (Nature Portfolio)
    Countries such as China are facing a bottleneck in their paths to carbon neutrality: abating emissions in heavy industries and heavy-duty transport. There are few in-depth studies of the prospective role for clean hydrogen in these 'hard-to-abate ' (HTA) sectors. Here we carry out an integrated dynamic least-cost modeling anal. Results show that, first, clean hydrogen can be both a major energy carrier and feedstock that can significantly reduce carbon emissions of heavy industry. It can also fuel up to 50% of China 's heavy-duty truck and bus fleets by 2060 and significant shares of shipping. Second, a realistic clean hydrogen scenario that reaches 65.7 Mt of prodn. in 2060 could avoid US$1.72 trillion of new investment compared with a no-hydrogen scenario. This study provides evidence of the value of clean hydrogen in HTA sectors for China and countries facing similar challenges in reducing emissions to achieve net-zero goals.
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    Wang, P.; Ryberg, M.; Yang, Y.; Feng, K.; Kara, S.; Hauschild, M.; Chen, W. Q. Efficiency Stagnation in Global Steel Production Urges Joint Supply- and Demand-side Mitigation Efforts. Nat. Commun. 2021, 12, 2066,  DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22245-6
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    Efficiency stagnation in global steel production urges joint supply- and demand-side mitigation efforts
    Wang, Peng; Ryberg, Morten; Yang, Yi; Feng, Kuishuang; Kara, Sami; Hauschild, Michael; Chen, Wei-Qiang
    Nature Communications (2021), 12 (1), 2066CODEN: NCAOBW; ISSN:2041-1723. (Nature Research)
    Abstr.: Steel prodn. is a difficult-to-mitigate sector that challenges climate mitigation commitments. Efforts for future decarbonization can benefit from understanding its progress to date. Here we report on greenhouse gas emissions from global steel prodn. over the past century (1900-2015) by combining material flow anal. and life cycle assessment. We find that ∼45 Gt steel was produced in this period leading to emissions of ∼147 Gt CO2-eq. Significant improvement in process efficiency (∼67%) was achieved, but was offset by a 44-fold increase in annual steel prodn., resulting in a 17-fold net increase in annual emissions. Despite some regional tech. improvements, the industry's decarbonization progress at the global scale has largely stagnated since 1995 mainly due to expanded prodn. in emerging countries with high carbon intensity. Our anal. of future scenarios indicates that the expected demand expansion in these countries may jeopardize steel industry's prospects for following 1.5 °C emission redn. pathways. To achieve the Paris climate goals, there is an urgent need for rapid implementation of joint supply- and demand-side mitigation measures around the world in consideration of regional conditions.
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    Raabe, D.; Tasan, C. C.; Olivetti, E. A. Strategies for Improving the Sustainability of Structural Metals. Nature. 2019, 575, 64– 74,  DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1702-5
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    Strategies for improving the sustainability of structural metals
    Raabe, Dierk; Tasan, C. Cem; Olivetti, Elsa A.
    Nature (London, United Kingdom) (2019), 575 (7781), 64-74CODEN: NATUAS; ISSN:0028-0836. (Nature Research)
    Metallic materials have enabled technol. progress over thousands of years. The accelerated demand for structural (i.e., load-bearing) alloys in key sectors such as energy, construction, safety and transportation is resulting in predicted prodn. growth rates of up to 200 per cent until 2050. Yet most of these materials require a lot of energy when extd. and manufd. and these processes emit large amts. of greenhouse gases and pollution. Here we review methods of improving the direct sustainability of structural metals, in areas including reduced-carbon-dioxide primary prodn., recycling, scrap-compatible alloy design, contaminant tolerance of alloys and improved alloy longevity. We discuss the effectiveness and technol. readiness of individual measures and also show how novel structural materials enable improved energy efficiency through their reduced mass, higher thermal stability and better mech. properties than currently available alloys.
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    Iyer, G.; Ou, Y.; Edmonds, J.; Fawcett, A. A.; Hultman, N.; McFarland, J.; Fuhrman, J.; Waldhoff, S.; McJeon, H. Ratcheting of Climate Pledges Needed to Limit Peak Global Warming. Nat. Clim. Chang. 2022, 12, 1129– 1135,  DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01508-0
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    Wang, P.; Wang, H.; Chen, W.; Pauliuk, S. Carbon Neutrality Needs a Circular Metal-energy Nexus. Fundamental Research. 2022, 2, 392– 395,  DOI: 10.1016/j.fmre.2022.02.003
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    Borst, A. M.; Smith, M. P.; Finch, A. A.; Estrade, G.; Villanova-de-Benavent, C.; Nason, P.; Marquis, E.; Horsburgh, N. J.; Goodenough, K. M.; Xu, C.; Kynicky, J.; Geraki, K. Adsorption of rare earth elements in regolith-hosted clay deposits. Nat. Commun. 2020, 11, 4386,  DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-17801-5
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    Adsorption of rare earth elements in regolith-hosted clay deposits
    Borst, Anouk M.; Smith, Martin P.; Finch, Adrian A.; Estrade, Guillaume; Villanova-de-Benavent, Cristina; Nason, Peter; Marquis, Eva; Horsburgh, Nicola J.; Goodenough, Kathryn M.; Xu, Cheng; Kynicky, Jindrich; Geraki, Kalotina
    Nature Communications (2020), 11 (1), 4386CODEN: NCAOBW; ISSN:2041-1723. (Nature Research)
    Abstr.: Global resources of heavy Rare Earth Elements (REE) are dominantly sourced from Chinese regolith-hosted ion-adsorption deposits in which the REE are inferred to be weakly adsorbed onto clay minerals. Similar deposits elsewhere might provide alternative supply for these high-tech metals, but the adsorption mechanisms remain unclear and the adsorbed state of REE to clays has never been demonstrated in situ. This study compares the mineralogy and speciation of REE in economic weathering profiles from China to prospective regoliths developed on peralkaline rocks from Madagascar. We use synchrotron X-ray absorption spectroscopy to study the distribution and local bonding environment of Y and Nd, as proxies for heavy and light REE, in the deposits. Our results show that REE are truly adsorbed as easily leachable 8- to 9-coordinated outer-sphere hydrated complexes, dominantly onto kaolinite. Hence, at the at. level, the Malagasy clays are genuine mineralogical analogs to those currently exploited in China.
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    Du, X.; Graedel, T. E. Global in-use stocks of the rare Earth elements: a first estimate. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2011, 45, 4096– 4101,  DOI: 10.1021/es102836s
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    Global in-use stocks of the rare earth elements: A first estimate
    Du, Xiaoyue; Graedel, T. E.
    Environmental Science & Technology (2011), 45 (9), 4096-4101CODEN: ESTHAG; ISSN:0013-936X. (American Chemical Society)
    Even though rare earth metals are indispensable in modern technol., little quant. information other than combined rare earth oxide extn. is available on their life cycles. Published and unpublished information from China, Japan, the United States, and elsewhere were used to est. flows into use and in-use stocks for 15 of these rare earth metals: La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Sm, Eu, Gd, Tb, Dy, Ho, Er, Tm, Yb, Lu, and Y. The combined flows of these into use totalled ∼90 Gg in 2007. The highest for individual metals were ∼28 and ∼22 and the lowest were ∼0.16 and ∼0.15 Gg for Ce, La, Tm and Lu, resp. In-use stocks ranged from 144 Gg Ce to 0.2 Gg Tm. These stocks, if efficiently recycled, could provide a valuable supplement to geol. stocks.
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    Du, X.; Graedel, T. E. Uncovering the global life cycles of the rare earth elements. Sci. Rep. 2011, 1, 145,  DOI: 10.1038/srep00145
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    Uncovering the global life cycles of the rare earth elements
    Du, Xiaoyue; Graedel, T. E.
    Scientific Reports (2011), 1 (), 145, 4 pp.CODEN: SRCEC3; ISSN:2045-2322. (Nature Publishing Group)
    The rare earth elements (REE) are a group of fifteen elements with unique properties that make them indispensable for a wide variety of emerging, crit. technologies. Knowledge of the life cycles of REE remains sparse, despite the current heightened interest in their future availability. Mining is heavily concd. in China, whose monopoly position and potential restriction of exports render primary supplies vulnerable to short and long-term disruption. To provide an improved perspective we derived the first quant. life cycles (for the year 2007) for ten REE: lanthanum (La), cerium (Ce), praseodymium (Pr), neodymium (Nd), samarium (Sm), europium (Eu), gadolinium (Gd), terbium (Tb), dysprosium (Dy), and yttrium (Y). Of these REE, Ce and Nd in-use stocks are highest; the in-use stocks of most REE show significant accumulation in modern society. Industrial scrap recycling occurs only from magnet manuf. We believe there is no post-customer recycling of any of these elements.
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    Guyonnet, D.; Planchon, M.; Rollat, A.; Escalon, V.; Tuduri, J.; Charles, N.; Vaxelaire, S.; Dubois, D.; Fargier, H. Material flow analysis applied to rare earth elements in Europe. J. Clean. Prod. 2015, 107, 215– 228,  DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.04.123
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    Sekine, N.; Daigo, I.; Goto, Y. Dynamic Substance Flow Analysis of Neodymium and Dysprosium Associated with Neodymium Magnets in Japan. J. Ind. Ecol. 2017, 21, 356– 367,  DOI: 10.1111/jiec.12458
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    Zeng, A.; Chen, W.; Rasmussen, K. D.; Zhu, X.; Lundhaug, M.; Muller, D. B.; Tan, J.; Keiding, J. K.; Liu, L.; Dai, T.; Wang, A.; Liu, G. Battery Technology and Recycling alone Will Not Save the Electric Mobility Transition from Future Cobalt Shortages. Nat. Commun. 2022, 13, 1341,  DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-29022-z
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    Battery technology and recycling alone will not save the electric mobility transition from future cobalt shortages
    Zeng, Anqi; Chen, Wu; Rasmussen, Kasper Dalgas; Zhu, Xuehong; Lundhaug, Maren; Muller, Daniel B.; Tan, Juan; Keiding, Jakob K.; Liu, Litao; Dai, Tao; Wang, Anjian; Liu, Gang
    Nature Communications (2022), 13 (1), 1341CODEN: NCAOBW; ISSN:2041-1723. (Nature Portfolio)
    Abstr.: In recent years, increasing attention has been given to the potential supply risks of crit. battery materials, such as cobalt, for elec. mobility transitions. While battery technol. and recycling advancement are two widely acknowledged strategies for addressing such supply risks, the extent to which they will relieve global and regional cobalt demand-supply imbalance remains poorly understood. Here, we address this gap by simulating historical (1998-2019) and future (2020-2050) global cobalt cycles covering both traditional and emerging end uses with regional resoln. (China, the U.S., Japan, the EU, and the rest of the world). We show that cobalt-free batteries and recycling progress can indeed significantly alleviate long-term cobalt supply risks. However, the cobalt supply shortage appears inevitable in the short- to medium-term (during 2028-2033), even under the most technol. optimistic scenario. Our results reveal varying cobalt supply security levels by region and indicate the urgency of boosting primary cobalt supply to ensure global e-mobility ambitions.
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    Zhou, B.; Li, Z.; Chen, C. Global Potential of Rare Earth Resources and Rare Earth Demand from Clean Technologies. Minerals. 2017, 7, 203,  DOI: 10.3390/min7110203
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    Global potential of rare earth resources and rare earth demand from clean technologies
    Zhou, Baolu; Li, Zhongxue; Chen, Congcong
    Minerals (Basel, Switzerland) (2017), 7 (11), 203/1-203/14CODEN: MBSIBI; ISSN:2075-163X. (MDPI AG)
    Rare earth elements (REE) are widely used in high technologies, medical devices, and military defense systems, and are esp. indispensable in emerging clean energy. Along with the growing market of green energy in the next decades, global demand for REE will increase continuously, which will put great pressure on the current REE supply chain. The global REE prodn. is currently mainly concd. in China and Australia; they resp. contributed 85% and 10% in 2016. However, there are 178 deposits widely distributed in the world, and reported REE resources as of 2017 totaled 478 megaton (Mt) rare earth oxides (REO); 58% of these deposits contained exceed 0.1 Mt REO; 59 deposits have been tech. assessed. These resources could sustain the global REE prodn. at the current pace for more than a hundred years. It is noted that REE demand from clean technologies will reach 51.9 thousand metric tons (kt) REO in 2030, Nd and Dy, resp., comprising 75% and 9%, while these two elements comprise 15% and 0.52% of the global REE resources, resp. This indicates that Nd and Dy will strongly influence the development of exploring new REE projects and clean technologies in the next decades.
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    Li, C.; Mogollón, J. M.; Tukker, A.; Dong, J.; von Terzi, D.; Zhang, C.; Steubing, B. Future Material Requirements for Global Sustainable Offshore Wind Energy Development. Renew. Sust. Energy Rev. 2022, 164, 112603,  DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2022.112603
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    Ballinger, B.; Schmeda-Lopez, D.; Kefford, B.; Parkinson, B.; Stringer, M.; Greig, C.; Smart, S. The vulnerability of electric-vehicle and wind-turbine supply chains to the supply of rare-earth elements in a 2-degree scenario. Sustain. Prod. Consum. 2020, 22, 68– 76,  DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2020.02.005
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    Junne, T.; Wulff, N.; Breyer, C.; Naegler, T. Critical materials in global low-carbon energy scenarios: The case for neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt. Energy. 2020, 211, 118532,  DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.118532
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    Critical materials in global low-carbon energy scenarios: The case for neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt
    Junne, Tobias; Wulff, Niklas; Breyer, Christian; Naegler, Tobias
    Energy (Oxford, United Kingdom) (2020), 211 (), 118532CODEN: ENEYDS; ISSN:0360-5442. (Elsevier Ltd.)
    The requirements for neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt in power generation, storage and transport technologies until 2050 under six global energy scenarios are assessed. We consider plausible developments in the subtechnol. markets for lithium-ion batteries, wind power, and elec. motors for road transport. Moreover, we include the uncertainties regarding the specific material content of these subtechnologies and the reserve and resource ests. Furthermore, the development of the material demand in non-energy sectors is considered. The results show that the material requirements increase with the degree of ambition of the scenarios. The max. annual primary material demand of the scenarios exceeds current extn. vols. by a factor of 3 to9 (Nd), 7 to 35 (Dy), 12 to 143 (Li), and 2 to 22 (Co). The ratios of cumulative primary material demand to av. reserve ests. range from 0.1 to 0.3 (Nd), 0.3 to 1.1 (Dy), 0.7 to 6.5 (Li), and 0.8 to 5.5 (Co). Av. resource ests. of Li and Co are exceeded by up to a factor of 2.1 and 1.7, resp. We recommend that future scenario studies on the energy system transformation consider the influence of possible material bottlenecks on technol. prices and substitution technol. options.
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    Kalvig, P.; Machacek, E. Examining the rare-earth elements (REE) supply-demand balance for future global wind power scenarios. Geol. Surv. Den. Greenl. Bull. 2020, 41, 87– 90,  DOI: 10.34194/geusb.v41.4350
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    Nassar, N. T.; Wilburn, D. R.; Goonan, T. G. Byproduct metal requirements for U.S. wind and solar photovoltaic electricity generation up to the year 2040 under various Clean Power Plan scenarios. Applied Energy. 2016, 183, 1209– 1226,  DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.08.062
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    Byproduct metal requirements for U.S. wind and solar photovoltaic electricity generation up to the year 2040 under various Clean Power Plan scenarios
    Nassar, Nedal T.; Wilburn, David R.; Goonan, Thomas G.
    Applied Energy (2016), 183 (), 1209-1226CODEN: APENDX; ISSN:0306-2619. (Elsevier Ltd.)
    The United States has and will likely continue to obtain an increasing share of its electricity from solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind power, esp. under the Clean Power Plan (CPP). The need for addnl. need for solar PV modules and wind turbines will, among other things, result in greater demand for a no. of minor metals that are produced mainly or only as byproducts. In this anal., the quantities of 11 byproduct metals (Ag, Cd, Te, In, Ga, Se, Ge, Nd, Pr, Dy, and Tb) required for wind turbines with rare-earth permanent magnets and four solar PV technologies are assessed through the year 2040. Three key uncertainties (electricity generation capacities, technol. market shares, and material intensities) are varied to develop 42 scenarios for each byproduct metal. The results indicate that byproduct metal requirements vary significantly across technologies, scenarios, and over time. In certain scenarios, the requirements are projected to become a significant portion of current primary prodn. This is esp. the case for Te, Ge, Dy, In, and Tb under the more aggressive scenarios of increasing market share and conservative material intensities. Te and Dy are, perhaps, of most concern given their substitution limitations. In certain years, the differences in byproduct metal requirements between the technol. market share and material intensity scenarios are greater than those between the various CPP and No CPP scenarios. Cumulatively across years 2016-2040, the various CPP scenarios are estd. to require 15-43% more byproduct metals than the No CPP scenario depending on the specific byproduct metal and scenario. Increasing primary prodn. via enhanced recovery rates of the byproduct metals during the beneficiation and enrichment operations, improving end-of-life recycling rates, and developing substitutes are important strategies that may help meet the increased demand for these byproduct metals.
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    Shammugam, S.; Gervais, E.; Schlegl, T.; Rathgeber, A. Raw metal needs and supply risks for the development of wind energy in Germany until 2050. J. Clean. Prod. 2019, 221, 738– 752,  DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.02.223
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    van Oorschot, J.; Sprecher, B.; Roelofs, B.; van der Horst, J.; van der Voet, E. Towards a low-carbon and circular economy: Scenarios for metal stocks and flows in the Dutch electricity system. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 2022, 178, 106105,  DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.106105
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    Li, X.; Ge, J.; Chen, W.; Wang, P. Scenarios of rare earth elements demand driven by automotive electrification in China: 2018–2030. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 2019, 145, 322– 331,  DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.02.003
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    Elshkaki, A. Long-term analysis of critical materials in future vehicles electrification in China and their national and global implications. Energy. 2020, 202, 117697,  DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.117697
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    Wang, P.; Chen, L.; Ge, J.; Cai, W.; Chen, W. Incorporating critical material cycles into metal-energy nexus of China’s 2050 renewable transition. Appl. Energy. 2019, 253, 113612,  DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113612
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    Elshkaki, A.; Shen, L. Energy-material nexus: The impacts of national and international energy scenarios on critical metals use in China up to 2050 and their global implications. Energy. 2019, 180, 903– 917,  DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.05.156
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    Energy-material nexus: The impacts of national and international energy scenarios on critical metals use in China up to 2050 and their global implications
    Elshkaki, Ayman; Shen, Lei
    Energy (Oxford, United Kingdom) (2019), 180 (), 903-917CODEN: ENEYDS; ISSN:0360-5442. (Elsevier Ltd.)
    Transition to low carbon energy system requires no. of metals that are required in other sectors, have limited availability, produced mainly as byproducts in limited countries, and classified crit., which may shift energy system traditional geopolitics. China is main producer of several metals and one of their main consumers, which may have implications on their use in other sectors and in low carbon technologies in other countries. We aim at analyzing electricity generation technologies (EGT) in China, their metals requirements, and their global implications. Metals included are Ag, Te, In, Ge, Se, Ga, Cd, Nd, Dy, Pr, Tb, Pb, Cu, Ni, Al, Fe, Cr, and Zn. Dynamic material flow-stock model and seven energy scenarios are used, combined with material scenarios. Results indicates that most crit. metals for energy system are Te, Cr, Ag, Ni, In, Ge, Tb, and Dy, however, technol. advancements are expected to reduce risks assocd. with Ag, In, Dy, and Tb. Energy scenarios are difficult to realize without adequate supply of metals from primary sources, combined with increasing resources efficiency, recycling, and careful selection of technologies. Energy models used to produce these scenarios should include energy-material nexus. Biggest global implications expected for Ge, Te, Tb, and Dy.
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    Strategies and options for the sustainable recovery of rare earth elements from electrical and electronic waste
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    A review. Rare earth elements (REEs) are among the important elements in various high-technol. appliances globally. Recently, the recovery of REEs from the waste elec. and electronic equipment (WEEE) has gained significant interest for the sustainability of global elec. and electronic industrial markets. The fast-evolving and rapid changing of technol. has made many of these hi-tech equipment become obsolete with high disposal rates. Rising concerns over the depletion of REE sources have led to the need to ext. and recover the REEs from WEEE. However, many studies still need to be carried out to optimize the recovery processes of the REEs in terms of the extn. methods employed and to minimize the environmental impact and hazard towards the flora and fauna. This review outlines the various REEs available in a wide range of elec. and electronic equipment, the various types of REE recovery methods, as well as their environmental impacts. The future perspectives and research directions in terms of the circular economy, policy and regulatory framework and research roadmap for REE recovery from WEEE are also discussed.
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    Uncovering the Key Features of Dysprosium Flows and Stocks in China
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    Dysprosium (Dy) is a crit. rare earth element and plays an indispensable role in clean energy technologies, such as wind turbines and elec. vehicles. However, its flows and stocks in the whole life cycle and potential barriers to sustainable supply remain unclear, although the demand for Dy is increasing and its reserves are limited. This study aims to track China's Dy cycle for the period of 2000 to 2019 by employing dynamic material flow anal. The results show that (1) demand for Dy had increased by 117-fold, with an accumulative use of 37,317 tons, of which 50% was obtained from illegal mining; (2) 33% of the overall Dy resource was used in wind turbines in 2019, followed by air conditioners and elec. vehicles (22 and 17%, resp.); (3) China's net Dy export had increased by 10-fold from 2000 to 2019, with Dy concs. and final products being the dominant import and export products, resp. Illegal mining, inadequate recycling policies, and limited Dy supply sources are potential barriers influencing sustainable Dy supply.
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    Dynamic neodymium stocks and flows analysis in China
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    Europium (Eu) is often regarded as a crit. mineral due to its byproduct nature, importance to lighting technologies, and global supply concn. However, the existing indicator-based criticality assessments have limitations to capture Eu's supply chain information and thus fall short of reflecting its true criticality. This study quantified the flows and stocks of Eu in mainland China from 1990 to 2018. Results show that: (1) China's Eu demand decreased by 75% from 2011 to 2018, as a result of the lighting technol. transition from fluorescent lamps to light-emitting diodes, which significantly reduced Eu's importance; (2) the supply of Eu mined as a byproduct kept increasing together with the growing rare earth prodn., which caused a substantial supply surplus being ≈1900 t by 2018; (3) despite the leading role of China in global Eu prodn., Eu mined in China was exported mainly in the form of intermediate and final products, and ≈90% Eu embedded in domestically produced final products was used for export recently. This study indicates that Eu's criticality is not as severe as previously assessed and highlights the necessity of material flow anal. for a holistic and dynamic view on the entire supply chain of crit. minerals.
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    Batteries have the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions from on-road transportation. However, environmental and social impacts of producing lithium-ion batteries, particularly cathode materials, and concerns over material criticality are frequently highlighted as barriers to widespread elec. vehicle adoption. Circular economy strategies, like reuse and recycling, can reduce impacts and secure regional supplies. To understand the potential for circularity, we undertake a dynamic global material flow anal. of pack-level materials that includes scenario anal. for changing battery cathode chemistries and elec. vehicle demand. Results are produced regionwise and through the year 2040 to est. the potential global and regional circularity of lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, iron, aluminum, copper, and graphite, although the anal. is focused on the cathode materials. Under idealized conditions, retired batteries could supply 60% of cobalt, 53% of lithium, 57% of manganese, and 53% of nickel globally in 2040. If the current mix of cathode chemistries evolves to a market dominated by NMC 811, a low cobalt chem., there is potential for 85% global circularity of cobalt in 2040. If the market steers away from cathodes contg. cobalt, to an LFP-dominated market, cobalt, manganese, and nickel become less relevant and reach circularity before 2040. For each market to benefit from the recovery of secondary materials, recycling and manufg. infrastructure must be developed in each region.
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    Allocating environmental costs of China's rare earth production to global consumption
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    Science of the Total Environment (2022), 831 (), 154934CODEN: STENDL; ISSN:0048-9697. (Elsevier B.V.)
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    A review. The World Health Organization ests. that the warming and pptn. trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heat waves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation, sub-Saharan Africa, and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.
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  • Abstract

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    Figure 1

    Figure 1. Framework for Dy-NdFeB future projection and decoupling strategies analysis (permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM), AC induction motor (ACIM), switched reluctance motor (SRM); permanent magnet gear middle speed (PMMS), permanent magnet gear high speed (PMHS), permanent magnet direct drive (PMDD)).

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    Figure 2

    Figure 2. China’s Dy flows, stocks, and future demand. (A) Supply chain of China’s Dy cycles in 2020. (B) Supply chain of China’s Dy cycles in 2050 under the STEPS and 1.5 °C scenarios. (C–E) Dy demand under the BAU, STEPS, and 1.5 °C scenarios.

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    Figure 3

    Figure 3. Future Dy total supply and cumulative primary supply. (A–C) Dy total supply (primary supply plus secondary supply) under the BAU, STEPS, and 1.5 °C scenarios. (D) Dy cumulative primary supply (without quota) relative to China’s and global present Dy reserve.

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    Figure 4

    Figure 4. Dy demand and supply combine with material substitution, reduction, and improving recycling systems strategies. (A–C) Dy demand and supply with improving recycling systems strategy under the BAU, STEPS, and 1.5 °C scenarios. (D–F) Dy demand and supply with improving recycling systems and reduction strategies under the BAU, STEPS, and 1.5 °C scenarios. (G–I) Dy demand and supply with improving recycling systems, reduction, and element substitution strategies under the BAU, STEPS and 1.5 °C scenarios. (J–L) Dy demand and supply with improving recycling systems, reduction, and component substitution strategies under the BAU, STEPS, and 1.5 °C scenarios.

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    Figure 5

    Figure 5. The change of Dy import dependency and the cumulative import volumes. (A) Dy cumulative import volumes from global during 2021–2050 under the STEPS and 1.5 °C scenarios (MOZ: Madagascar; MDG: Mozambique; MMR: Myanmar (Burma); THA: Thailand; VAN: Vietnam; MYS: Malaysia; USA:US; AUS: Australia; CHN: China; RUS: Russian Federation; SEA: The Southeast Asian). (B–D) Dy import dependency with material substitution, reduction and improving recycling systems strategies under the BAU, STEPS and 1.5 °C scenarios. (E-G) Dy cumulative primary supply related to China’s and global Dy reserve during 2021–2050 with material substitution, reduction, and improving recycling systems strategies under the BAU, STEPS, and 1.5 °C scenarios.

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      Climate change mitigation will create new natural resource and supply chain opportunities and dilemmas, because substantial amts. of raw materials will be required to build new low-carbon energy devices and infrastructure. However, despite attempts at improved governance and better corporate management, procurement of many mineral and metal resources occurs in areas generally acknowledged for mismanagement, remains environmentally capricious, and, in some cases, is a source of conflict at the sites of resource extn. These extractive and smelting industries have thus left a legacy in many parts of the world of environmental degrdn., adverse impacts to public health, marginalized communities and workers, and biodiversity damage. We identify key sustainability challenges with practices used in industries that will supply the metals and minerals-including cobalt, copper, lithium, cadmium, and rare earth elements (REEs)-needed for technologies such as solar photovoltaics, batteries, elec. vehicle (EV) motors, wind turbines, fuel cells, and nuclear reactors. We then propose four holistic recommendations to make mining and metal processing more sustainable and just and to make the mining and extractive industries more efficient and resilient.
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    3. 3
      Goldthau, A.; Hughes, L. Protect Global Supply Chains for Low-carbon Technologies. Nature. 2020, 585, 28– 30,  DOI: 10.1038/d41586-020-02499-8
      3
      Protect global supply chains for low-carbon technologies
      Goldthau, Andreas; Hughes, Llewelyn
      Nature (London, United Kingdom) (2020), 585 (7823), 28-30CODEN: NATUAS; ISSN:0028-0836. (Nature Research)
      A review. The COVID-19 economic crash threatens the international trade networks that make clean energy cheap - abandoning them puts the climate at risk.
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    4. 4
      Lee, J. C. K.; Wen, Z. Pathways for Greening the Supply of Rare Earth Elements in China. Nat. Sustain. 2018, 1, 598– 605,  DOI: 10.1038/s41893-018-0154-5
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    5. 5
      Liu, Q.; Sun, K.; Ouyang, X.; Sen, B.; Liu, L.; Dai, T.; Liu, G. Tracking Three Decades of Global Neodymium Stocks and Flows with a Trade-Linked Multiregional Material Flow Analysis. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2022, 56, 11807– 11817,  DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.2c02247
      5
      Tracking Three Decades of Global Neodymium Stocks and Flows with a Trade-Linked Multiregional Material Flow Analysis
      Liu, Qiance; Sun, Kun; Ouyang, Xin; Sen, Burak; Liu, Litao; Dai, Tao; Liu, Gang
      Environmental Science & Technology (2022), 56 (16), 11807-11817CODEN: ESTHAG; ISSN:1520-5851. (American Chemical Society)
      Neodymium (Nd), an essential type of rare earth element, has attracted increasing attention in recent years due to its significant role in emerging technologies and its globally imbalanced demand and supply. Understanding the global and regional Nd stocks and flows would thus be important for understanding and mitigating potential supply risks. In this work, we applied a trade-linked multiregional material flow anal. to map the global and regional neodymium cycles from 1990 to 2020. We reveal increasingly complex trade patterns of Nd-contg. products and a clearly dominant but slightly weakening role of China in the global Nd trade (for both raw materials and semi- and final products) along the life cycle in the last 30 years. A total of 880 kt Nd was mined accumulatively and flowed into the global socioeconomic system, mainly as NdFeB permanent magnets (79%) in semi-products and conventional vehicles and home appliances (together 48%) in final products. Approx. 64% (i.e., 563 kt Nd) of all the mined Nd globally were not recycled, indicating a largely untapped potential of recycling in securing Nd supply and an urgency to overcome the present technol. and non-tech. challenges. The global Nd cycle in the past three decades is characterized by different but complementary roles of different regions along the global Nd value chain: China dominates in the provision of raw materials and semi- and final products, Japan focuses on the manufg. of magnets and electronics, and the United States and European Union show advantages in the vehicle industry. Anticipating increasing demand of Nd in emerging energy and transport technologies in the future, more coordinated efforts among different regions and increased recycling are urgently needed for ensuring both regional and global Nd supply and demand balance and a common green future.
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    6. 6
      Smith, B. J.; Riddle, M. E.; Earlam, M. R.; Iloeje, C.; Diamond, D. Rare Earth Permanent Magnets-Supply Chain Deep Dive Assessment; U.S. Department of Energy, 2022.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    7. 7
      Wang, Q.; Chen, W.; Wang, P.; Dai, T. Illustrating the Supply Chain of Dysprosium in China through Material Flow Analysis. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 2022, 184, 106417,  DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2022.106417
      7
      Illustrating the supply chain of dysprosium in China through material flow analysis
      Wang, Qiao-Chu; Chen, Wei-Qiang; Wang, Peng; Dai, Tao
      Resources, Conservation and Recycling (2022), 184 (), 106417CODEN: RCREEW; ISSN:0921-3449. (Elsevier B.V.)
      Dysprosium (Dy) is a crit. rare earth element. However, its supply, consumption, trade, and recycling along the entire supply chain have not been clearly investigated, esp. for China where most Dy is produced and used. This study quantified the Dy flows and stocks in mainland China during 1990--2019. Key findings are as follows: (1) domestic Dy demand increased by 16-fold during 2004-2019, driven by green technologies; (2) Dy mine prodn. failed to grow significantly after 2010 under intensified environmental regulations; (3) China's total Dy exports increased steadily, with exported commodities changing from upstream to downstream products; (4) in-use Dy stocks grew by 15-fold during 2006-2019, implicating big potentials of urban mining, but com. recycling systems have not been established. This study reveals the importance of supply-demand monitoring, environmental governance, and global cooperation to Dy industries, and highlights the necessity of material flow anal. for improving metal supply chain management.
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    8. 8
      Heldwein, O. Raw Material Gaps on the Way to Net Zero by 2050? A Case Study for Nd Focusing on Wind Energy and EVs. Master Thesis, Technische Universität Wien, 2022.  DOI: 10.34726/hss.2022.103423 .
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    9. 9
      Li, J.; Peng, K.; Wang, P.; Zhang, N.; Feng, K.; Guan, D.; Meng, J.; Wei, W.; Yang, Q. Critical Rare-Earth Elements Mismatch Global Wind-Power Ambitions. One Earth. 2020, 3, 116– 125,  DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2020.06.009
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    10. 10
      USGS. Methodology and Technical Input for the 2021 Review and Revision of the U.S. Critical Minerals List; U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, 2021. https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2021/1045/ofr20211045.pdf.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    11. 11
      U.S. Department of Energy. Critical Minerals and Materials Strategy; U.S. Department of Energy, 2021. https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2021/01/f82/DOE%20Critical%20Minerals%20and%20Materials%20Strategy_0.pdf.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    12. 12
      Hatayama, H.; Tahara, K. Criticality Assessment of Metals for Japan’s Resource Strategy. Mater. Trans. 2015, 56, 229– 235,  DOI: 10.2320/matertrans.M2014380
      12
      Criticality assessment of metals for Japan's resource strategy
      Hatayama, Hiroki; Tahara, Kiyotaka
      Materials Transactions (2015), 56 (2), 229-235CODEN: MTARCE; ISSN:1345-9678. (Japan Institute of Metals and Materials)
      A review. Criticality assessment of metals has been developed to analyze a country's supply risk and vulnerability to supply restriction. This study presents Japan's criticality of 22 metals during 2012. Whereas a past assessment focused only on minor metals, evaluation targets here included both common and minor metals. In addn., a new analytic method included mineral interest sufficiency as a criticality component. The evaluation framework developed in this study included 13 criticality components within five risk categories: supply risk, price risk, demand risk, recycling restriction, and potential risk. Weighting factors were used to aggregate components into a single score. This framework reflects a recent government announcement about Japan's resource strategy. High criticality was found for neodymium, dysprosium, and indium due to a recent increase in demand. Niobium also had high criticality due to prodn. concn. in Brazil. There were few differences in the aggregated criticality scores between the other minor metals and common metals. For minor metals, aggregated criticality was mainly increased by prodn. concn. and recycling difficulty. For common metals, aggregated criticality was increased by short depletion time and growth in global mine prodn. Compared with a previous study, in 2012 the criticality of tungsten and tantalum were lower due to reduced domestic demand. The analytic methods and results presented in this study will be useful in developing Japan's resource strategy.
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    13. 13
      European Commission. Study on the EU’s list of Critical Raw Materials─Final Report. European Commission, 2020. https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/c0d5292a-ee54-11ea-991b-01aa75ed71a1/language-en.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    14. 14
      European Commission. Critical Raw Materials for Strategic Technologies and Sectors in the EU-A Foresight Study; European Commission, 2020.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    15. 15
      Australian Government, Australian Trade and Investment Commission. Critical Minerals Strategy 2022; Australian Government, Department of Industry, Science and Resources. 2022.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    16. 16
      Australian Government, Australian Trade and Investment Commission. Rare Earth Elements─Reliable, Responsible, Australian─A Critical Mineral Snapshot, Based on the Austrailian Prospectus 2020 , 2020.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    17. 17
      Duan, H.; Zhou, S.; Jiang, K.; Bertram, C.; Harmsen, M.; Kriegler, E.; van Vuuren, D. P.; Wang, S.; Fujimori, S.; Tavoni, M. Assessing China’s Efforts to Pursue the 1.5 °C Warming Limit. Science 2021, 372, 378– 385,  DOI: 10.1126/science.aba8767
      17
      Assessing China's efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit
      Duan, Hongbo; Zhou, Sheng; Jiang, Kejun; Bertram, Christoph; Harmsen, Mathijs; Kriegler, Elmar; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wang, Shouyang; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Tavoni, Massimo; Ming, Xi; Keramidas, Kimon; Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James
      Science (Washington, DC, United States) (2021), 372 (6540), 378-385CODEN: SCIEAS; ISSN:1095-9203. (American Association for the Advancement of Science)
      Given the increasing interest in keeping global warming below 1.5°C, a key question is what this would mean for China's emission pathway, energy restructuring, and decarbonization. By conducting a multimodel study, we find that the 1.5°C-consistent goal would require China to reduce its carbon emissions and energy consumption by more than 90 and 39%, resp., compared with the "no policy" case. Neg. emission technologies play an important role in achieving near-zero emissions, with captured carbon accounting on av. for 20% of the total redns. in 2050. Our multimodel comparisons reveal large differences in necessary emission redns. across sectors, whereas what is consistent is that the power sector is required to achieve full decarbonization by 2050. The cross-model avs. indicate that China's accumulated policy costs may amt. to 2.8 to 5.7% of its gross domestic product by 2050, given the 1.5°C warming limit.
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    18. 18
      Benveniste, H.; Oppenheimer, M.; Fleurbaey, M. Climate Change Increases Resource-Constrained International Immobility. Nat. Clim. Chang. 2022, 12, 634– 641,  DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01401-w
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    19. 19
      Yang, X.; Nielsen, C. P.; Song, S.; McElroy, M. B. Breaking the Hard-to-abate Bottleneck in China’s Path to Carbon Neutrality with Clean Hydrogen. Nat. Energy. 2022, 7, 955– 965,  DOI: 10.1038/s41560-022-01114-6
      19
      Breaking the hard-to-abate bottleneck in China's path to carbon neutrality with clean hydrogen
      Yang, Xi; Nielsen, Chris P.; Song, Shaojie; McElroy, Michael B.
      Nature Energy (2022), 7 (10), 955-965CODEN: NEANFD; ISSN:2058-7546. (Nature Portfolio)
      Countries such as China are facing a bottleneck in their paths to carbon neutrality: abating emissions in heavy industries and heavy-duty transport. There are few in-depth studies of the prospective role for clean hydrogen in these 'hard-to-abate ' (HTA) sectors. Here we carry out an integrated dynamic least-cost modeling anal. Results show that, first, clean hydrogen can be both a major energy carrier and feedstock that can significantly reduce carbon emissions of heavy industry. It can also fuel up to 50% of China 's heavy-duty truck and bus fleets by 2060 and significant shares of shipping. Second, a realistic clean hydrogen scenario that reaches 65.7 Mt of prodn. in 2060 could avoid US$1.72 trillion of new investment compared with a no-hydrogen scenario. This study provides evidence of the value of clean hydrogen in HTA sectors for China and countries facing similar challenges in reducing emissions to achieve net-zero goals.
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    20. 20
      Wang, P.; Ryberg, M.; Yang, Y.; Feng, K.; Kara, S.; Hauschild, M.; Chen, W. Q. Efficiency Stagnation in Global Steel Production Urges Joint Supply- and Demand-side Mitigation Efforts. Nat. Commun. 2021, 12, 2066,  DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22245-6
      20
      Efficiency stagnation in global steel production urges joint supply- and demand-side mitigation efforts
      Wang, Peng; Ryberg, Morten; Yang, Yi; Feng, Kuishuang; Kara, Sami; Hauschild, Michael; Chen, Wei-Qiang
      Nature Communications (2021), 12 (1), 2066CODEN: NCAOBW; ISSN:2041-1723. (Nature Research)
      Abstr.: Steel prodn. is a difficult-to-mitigate sector that challenges climate mitigation commitments. Efforts for future decarbonization can benefit from understanding its progress to date. Here we report on greenhouse gas emissions from global steel prodn. over the past century (1900-2015) by combining material flow anal. and life cycle assessment. We find that ∼45 Gt steel was produced in this period leading to emissions of ∼147 Gt CO2-eq. Significant improvement in process efficiency (∼67%) was achieved, but was offset by a 44-fold increase in annual steel prodn., resulting in a 17-fold net increase in annual emissions. Despite some regional tech. improvements, the industry's decarbonization progress at the global scale has largely stagnated since 1995 mainly due to expanded prodn. in emerging countries with high carbon intensity. Our anal. of future scenarios indicates that the expected demand expansion in these countries may jeopardize steel industry's prospects for following 1.5 °C emission redn. pathways. To achieve the Paris climate goals, there is an urgent need for rapid implementation of joint supply- and demand-side mitigation measures around the world in consideration of regional conditions.
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    21. 21
      Raabe, D.; Tasan, C. C.; Olivetti, E. A. Strategies for Improving the Sustainability of Structural Metals. Nature. 2019, 575, 64– 74,  DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1702-5
      21
      Strategies for improving the sustainability of structural metals
      Raabe, Dierk; Tasan, C. Cem; Olivetti, Elsa A.
      Nature (London, United Kingdom) (2019), 575 (7781), 64-74CODEN: NATUAS; ISSN:0028-0836. (Nature Research)
      Metallic materials have enabled technol. progress over thousands of years. The accelerated demand for structural (i.e., load-bearing) alloys in key sectors such as energy, construction, safety and transportation is resulting in predicted prodn. growth rates of up to 200 per cent until 2050. Yet most of these materials require a lot of energy when extd. and manufd. and these processes emit large amts. of greenhouse gases and pollution. Here we review methods of improving the direct sustainability of structural metals, in areas including reduced-carbon-dioxide primary prodn., recycling, scrap-compatible alloy design, contaminant tolerance of alloys and improved alloy longevity. We discuss the effectiveness and technol. readiness of individual measures and also show how novel structural materials enable improved energy efficiency through their reduced mass, higher thermal stability and better mech. properties than currently available alloys.
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    22. 22
      Iyer, G.; Ou, Y.; Edmonds, J.; Fawcett, A. A.; Hultman, N.; McFarland, J.; Fuhrman, J.; Waldhoff, S.; McJeon, H. Ratcheting of Climate Pledges Needed to Limit Peak Global Warming. Nat. Clim. Chang. 2022, 12, 1129– 1135,  DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01508-0
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    23. 23
      Wang, P.; Wang, H.; Chen, W.; Pauliuk, S. Carbon Neutrality Needs a Circular Metal-energy Nexus. Fundamental Research. 2022, 2, 392– 395,  DOI: 10.1016/j.fmre.2022.02.003
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    24. 24
      Borst, A. M.; Smith, M. P.; Finch, A. A.; Estrade, G.; Villanova-de-Benavent, C.; Nason, P.; Marquis, E.; Horsburgh, N. J.; Goodenough, K. M.; Xu, C.; Kynicky, J.; Geraki, K. Adsorption of rare earth elements in regolith-hosted clay deposits. Nat. Commun. 2020, 11, 4386,  DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-17801-5
      24
      Adsorption of rare earth elements in regolith-hosted clay deposits
      Borst, Anouk M.; Smith, Martin P.; Finch, Adrian A.; Estrade, Guillaume; Villanova-de-Benavent, Cristina; Nason, Peter; Marquis, Eva; Horsburgh, Nicola J.; Goodenough, Kathryn M.; Xu, Cheng; Kynicky, Jindrich; Geraki, Kalotina
      Nature Communications (2020), 11 (1), 4386CODEN: NCAOBW; ISSN:2041-1723. (Nature Research)
      Abstr.: Global resources of heavy Rare Earth Elements (REE) are dominantly sourced from Chinese regolith-hosted ion-adsorption deposits in which the REE are inferred to be weakly adsorbed onto clay minerals. Similar deposits elsewhere might provide alternative supply for these high-tech metals, but the adsorption mechanisms remain unclear and the adsorbed state of REE to clays has never been demonstrated in situ. This study compares the mineralogy and speciation of REE in economic weathering profiles from China to prospective regoliths developed on peralkaline rocks from Madagascar. We use synchrotron X-ray absorption spectroscopy to study the distribution and local bonding environment of Y and Nd, as proxies for heavy and light REE, in the deposits. Our results show that REE are truly adsorbed as easily leachable 8- to 9-coordinated outer-sphere hydrated complexes, dominantly onto kaolinite. Hence, at the at. level, the Malagasy clays are genuine mineralogical analogs to those currently exploited in China.
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    25. 25
      Du, X.; Graedel, T. E. Global in-use stocks of the rare Earth elements: a first estimate. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2011, 45, 4096– 4101,  DOI: 10.1021/es102836s
      25
      Global in-use stocks of the rare earth elements: A first estimate
      Du, Xiaoyue; Graedel, T. E.
      Environmental Science & Technology (2011), 45 (9), 4096-4101CODEN: ESTHAG; ISSN:0013-936X. (American Chemical Society)
      Even though rare earth metals are indispensable in modern technol., little quant. information other than combined rare earth oxide extn. is available on their life cycles. Published and unpublished information from China, Japan, the United States, and elsewhere were used to est. flows into use and in-use stocks for 15 of these rare earth metals: La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Sm, Eu, Gd, Tb, Dy, Ho, Er, Tm, Yb, Lu, and Y. The combined flows of these into use totalled ∼90 Gg in 2007. The highest for individual metals were ∼28 and ∼22 and the lowest were ∼0.16 and ∼0.15 Gg for Ce, La, Tm and Lu, resp. In-use stocks ranged from 144 Gg Ce to 0.2 Gg Tm. These stocks, if efficiently recycled, could provide a valuable supplement to geol. stocks.
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    26. 26
      Du, X.; Graedel, T. E. Uncovering the global life cycles of the rare earth elements. Sci. Rep. 2011, 1, 145,  DOI: 10.1038/srep00145
      26
      Uncovering the global life cycles of the rare earth elements
      Du, Xiaoyue; Graedel, T. E.
      Scientific Reports (2011), 1 (), 145, 4 pp.CODEN: SRCEC3; ISSN:2045-2322. (Nature Publishing Group)
      The rare earth elements (REE) are a group of fifteen elements with unique properties that make them indispensable for a wide variety of emerging, crit. technologies. Knowledge of the life cycles of REE remains sparse, despite the current heightened interest in their future availability. Mining is heavily concd. in China, whose monopoly position and potential restriction of exports render primary supplies vulnerable to short and long-term disruption. To provide an improved perspective we derived the first quant. life cycles (for the year 2007) for ten REE: lanthanum (La), cerium (Ce), praseodymium (Pr), neodymium (Nd), samarium (Sm), europium (Eu), gadolinium (Gd), terbium (Tb), dysprosium (Dy), and yttrium (Y). Of these REE, Ce and Nd in-use stocks are highest; the in-use stocks of most REE show significant accumulation in modern society. Industrial scrap recycling occurs only from magnet manuf. We believe there is no post-customer recycling of any of these elements.
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    27. 27
      Guyonnet, D.; Planchon, M.; Rollat, A.; Escalon, V.; Tuduri, J.; Charles, N.; Vaxelaire, S.; Dubois, D.; Fargier, H. Material flow analysis applied to rare earth elements in Europe. J. Clean. Prod. 2015, 107, 215– 228,  DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.04.123
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    28. 28
      Sekine, N.; Daigo, I.; Goto, Y. Dynamic Substance Flow Analysis of Neodymium and Dysprosium Associated with Neodymium Magnets in Japan. J. Ind. Ecol. 2017, 21, 356– 367,  DOI: 10.1111/jiec.12458
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    29. 29
      Zeng, A.; Chen, W.; Rasmussen, K. D.; Zhu, X.; Lundhaug, M.; Muller, D. B.; Tan, J.; Keiding, J. K.; Liu, L.; Dai, T.; Wang, A.; Liu, G. Battery Technology and Recycling alone Will Not Save the Electric Mobility Transition from Future Cobalt Shortages. Nat. Commun. 2022, 13, 1341,  DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-29022-z
      29
      Battery technology and recycling alone will not save the electric mobility transition from future cobalt shortages
      Zeng, Anqi; Chen, Wu; Rasmussen, Kasper Dalgas; Zhu, Xuehong; Lundhaug, Maren; Muller, Daniel B.; Tan, Juan; Keiding, Jakob K.; Liu, Litao; Dai, Tao; Wang, Anjian; Liu, Gang
      Nature Communications (2022), 13 (1), 1341CODEN: NCAOBW; ISSN:2041-1723. (Nature Portfolio)
      Abstr.: In recent years, increasing attention has been given to the potential supply risks of crit. battery materials, such as cobalt, for elec. mobility transitions. While battery technol. and recycling advancement are two widely acknowledged strategies for addressing such supply risks, the extent to which they will relieve global and regional cobalt demand-supply imbalance remains poorly understood. Here, we address this gap by simulating historical (1998-2019) and future (2020-2050) global cobalt cycles covering both traditional and emerging end uses with regional resoln. (China, the U.S., Japan, the EU, and the rest of the world). We show that cobalt-free batteries and recycling progress can indeed significantly alleviate long-term cobalt supply risks. However, the cobalt supply shortage appears inevitable in the short- to medium-term (during 2028-2033), even under the most technol. optimistic scenario. Our results reveal varying cobalt supply security levels by region and indicate the urgency of boosting primary cobalt supply to ensure global e-mobility ambitions.
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    30. 30
      Zhou, B.; Li, Z.; Chen, C. Global Potential of Rare Earth Resources and Rare Earth Demand from Clean Technologies. Minerals. 2017, 7, 203,  DOI: 10.3390/min7110203
      30
      Global potential of rare earth resources and rare earth demand from clean technologies
      Zhou, Baolu; Li, Zhongxue; Chen, Congcong
      Minerals (Basel, Switzerland) (2017), 7 (11), 203/1-203/14CODEN: MBSIBI; ISSN:2075-163X. (MDPI AG)
      Rare earth elements (REE) are widely used in high technologies, medical devices, and military defense systems, and are esp. indispensable in emerging clean energy. Along with the growing market of green energy in the next decades, global demand for REE will increase continuously, which will put great pressure on the current REE supply chain. The global REE prodn. is currently mainly concd. in China and Australia; they resp. contributed 85% and 10% in 2016. However, there are 178 deposits widely distributed in the world, and reported REE resources as of 2017 totaled 478 megaton (Mt) rare earth oxides (REO); 58% of these deposits contained exceed 0.1 Mt REO; 59 deposits have been tech. assessed. These resources could sustain the global REE prodn. at the current pace for more than a hundred years. It is noted that REE demand from clean technologies will reach 51.9 thousand metric tons (kt) REO in 2030, Nd and Dy, resp., comprising 75% and 9%, while these two elements comprise 15% and 0.52% of the global REE resources, resp. This indicates that Nd and Dy will strongly influence the development of exploring new REE projects and clean technologies in the next decades.
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    31. 31
      Li, C.; Mogollón, J. M.; Tukker, A.; Dong, J.; von Terzi, D.; Zhang, C.; Steubing, B. Future Material Requirements for Global Sustainable Offshore Wind Energy Development. Renew. Sust. Energy Rev. 2022, 164, 112603,  DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2022.112603
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    32. 32
      Farina, A.; Anctil, A. Material Consumption and environmental impact of wind turbines in the USA and globally. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 2022, 176, 105938,  DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.105938
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    33. 33
      Ballinger, B.; Schmeda-Lopez, D.; Kefford, B.; Parkinson, B.; Stringer, M.; Greig, C.; Smart, S. The vulnerability of electric-vehicle and wind-turbine supply chains to the supply of rare-earth elements in a 2-degree scenario. Sustain. Prod. Consum. 2020, 22, 68– 76,  DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2020.02.005
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    34. 34
      Junne, T.; Wulff, N.; Breyer, C.; Naegler, T. Critical materials in global low-carbon energy scenarios: The case for neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt. Energy. 2020, 211, 118532,  DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.118532
      34
      Critical materials in global low-carbon energy scenarios: The case for neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt
      Junne, Tobias; Wulff, Niklas; Breyer, Christian; Naegler, Tobias
      Energy (Oxford, United Kingdom) (2020), 211 (), 118532CODEN: ENEYDS; ISSN:0360-5442. (Elsevier Ltd.)
      The requirements for neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt in power generation, storage and transport technologies until 2050 under six global energy scenarios are assessed. We consider plausible developments in the subtechnol. markets for lithium-ion batteries, wind power, and elec. motors for road transport. Moreover, we include the uncertainties regarding the specific material content of these subtechnologies and the reserve and resource ests. Furthermore, the development of the material demand in non-energy sectors is considered. The results show that the material requirements increase with the degree of ambition of the scenarios. The max. annual primary material demand of the scenarios exceeds current extn. vols. by a factor of 3 to9 (Nd), 7 to 35 (Dy), 12 to 143 (Li), and 2 to 22 (Co). The ratios of cumulative primary material demand to av. reserve ests. range from 0.1 to 0.3 (Nd), 0.3 to 1.1 (Dy), 0.7 to 6.5 (Li), and 0.8 to 5.5 (Co). Av. resource ests. of Li and Co are exceeded by up to a factor of 2.1 and 1.7, resp. We recommend that future scenario studies on the energy system transformation consider the influence of possible material bottlenecks on technol. prices and substitution technol. options.
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    35. 35
      Kalvig, P.; Machacek, E. Examining the rare-earth elements (REE) supply-demand balance for future global wind power scenarios. Geol. Surv. Den. Greenl. Bull. 2020, 41, 87– 90,  DOI: 10.34194/geusb.v41.4350
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    36. 36
      Nassar, N. T.; Wilburn, D. R.; Goonan, T. G. Byproduct metal requirements for U.S. wind and solar photovoltaic electricity generation up to the year 2040 under various Clean Power Plan scenarios. Applied Energy. 2016, 183, 1209– 1226,  DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.08.062
      36
      Byproduct metal requirements for U.S. wind and solar photovoltaic electricity generation up to the year 2040 under various Clean Power Plan scenarios
      Nassar, Nedal T.; Wilburn, David R.; Goonan, Thomas G.
      Applied Energy (2016), 183 (), 1209-1226CODEN: APENDX; ISSN:0306-2619. (Elsevier Ltd.)
      The United States has and will likely continue to obtain an increasing share of its electricity from solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind power, esp. under the Clean Power Plan (CPP). The need for addnl. need for solar PV modules and wind turbines will, among other things, result in greater demand for a no. of minor metals that are produced mainly or only as byproducts. In this anal., the quantities of 11 byproduct metals (Ag, Cd, Te, In, Ga, Se, Ge, Nd, Pr, Dy, and Tb) required for wind turbines with rare-earth permanent magnets and four solar PV technologies are assessed through the year 2040. Three key uncertainties (electricity generation capacities, technol. market shares, and material intensities) are varied to develop 42 scenarios for each byproduct metal. The results indicate that byproduct metal requirements vary significantly across technologies, scenarios, and over time. In certain scenarios, the requirements are projected to become a significant portion of current primary prodn. This is esp. the case for Te, Ge, Dy, In, and Tb under the more aggressive scenarios of increasing market share and conservative material intensities. Te and Dy are, perhaps, of most concern given their substitution limitations. In certain years, the differences in byproduct metal requirements between the technol. market share and material intensity scenarios are greater than those between the various CPP and No CPP scenarios. Cumulatively across years 2016-2040, the various CPP scenarios are estd. to require 15-43% more byproduct metals than the No CPP scenario depending on the specific byproduct metal and scenario. Increasing primary prodn. via enhanced recovery rates of the byproduct metals during the beneficiation and enrichment operations, improving end-of-life recycling rates, and developing substitutes are important strategies that may help meet the increased demand for these byproduct metals.
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    37. 37
      Shammugam, S.; Gervais, E.; Schlegl, T.; Rathgeber, A. Raw metal needs and supply risks for the development of wind energy in Germany until 2050. J. Clean. Prod. 2019, 221, 738– 752,  DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.02.223
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    38. 38
      van Oorschot, J.; Sprecher, B.; Roelofs, B.; van der Horst, J.; van der Voet, E. Towards a low-carbon and circular economy: Scenarios for metal stocks and flows in the Dutch electricity system. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 2022, 178, 106105,  DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.106105
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    39. 39
      Seo, Y.; Morimoto, S. Comparison of dysprosium security strategies in Japan for 2010–2030. Resour. Policy. 2014, 39, 15– 20,  DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2013.10.007
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    40. 40
      Li, X.; Ge, J.; Chen, W.; Wang, P. Scenarios of rare earth elements demand driven by automotive electrification in China: 2018–2030. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 2019, 145, 322– 331,  DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.02.003
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    41. 41
      Elshkaki, A. Long-term analysis of critical materials in future vehicles electrification in China and their national and global implications. Energy. 2020, 202, 117697,  DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.117697
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    42. 42
      Wang, P.; Chen, L.; Ge, J.; Cai, W.; Chen, W. Incorporating critical material cycles into metal-energy nexus of China’s 2050 renewable transition. Appl. Energy. 2019, 253, 113612,  DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113612
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    43. 43
      Elshkaki, A.; Shen, L. Energy-material nexus: The impacts of national and international energy scenarios on critical metals use in China up to 2050 and their global implications. Energy. 2019, 180, 903– 917,  DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.05.156
      43
      Energy-material nexus: The impacts of national and international energy scenarios on critical metals use in China up to 2050 and their global implications
      Elshkaki, Ayman; Shen, Lei
      Energy (Oxford, United Kingdom) (2019), 180 (), 903-917CODEN: ENEYDS; ISSN:0360-5442. (Elsevier Ltd.)
      Transition to low carbon energy system requires no. of metals that are required in other sectors, have limited availability, produced mainly as byproducts in limited countries, and classified crit., which may shift energy system traditional geopolitics. China is main producer of several metals and one of their main consumers, which may have implications on their use in other sectors and in low carbon technologies in other countries. We aim at analyzing electricity generation technologies (EGT) in China, their metals requirements, and their global implications. Metals included are Ag, Te, In, Ge, Se, Ga, Cd, Nd, Dy, Pr, Tb, Pb, Cu, Ni, Al, Fe, Cr, and Zn. Dynamic material flow-stock model and seven energy scenarios are used, combined with material scenarios. Results indicates that most crit. metals for energy system are Te, Cr, Ag, Ni, In, Ge, Tb, and Dy, however, technol. advancements are expected to reduce risks assocd. with Ag, In, Dy, and Tb. Energy scenarios are difficult to realize without adequate supply of metals from primary sources, combined with increasing resources efficiency, recycling, and careful selection of technologies. Energy models used to produce these scenarios should include energy-material nexus. Biggest global implications expected for Ge, Te, Tb, and Dy.
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    44. 44
      Gielen, D; Lyons, M. Critical Materials for the Energy Transition: Rare Earth Elements; International Renewable Energy Agency, 2022.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    45. 45
      IEA. The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions; International Energy Agency, 2022.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    46. 46
      Toyota Motor Corporation. Toyota develops new magnet for electric motors aiming to reduce use of critical rare-earth element by up to 50%. Toyota Motor Corporation Official Global Newsroom , 2018. https://global.toyota/en/newsroom/corporate/21139684.html (accessed on Dec 19, 2021).
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    47. 47
      Dow, J. Tesla is going (back) to EV motors with no rare earth elements. Electrek. https://electrek.co/2023/03/01/tesla-is-going-back-to-ev-motors-with-no-rare-earth-elements/ (accessed on Feb 12, 2022).
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    48. 48
      Niron Magnetics. High Performance, Low-Cost Permanent Magnets. https://www.nironmagnetics.com/#Magnets%E2%80%8B, (accessed on Nov 6, 2022).
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    49. 49
      Widmer, J. D.; Martin, R.; Kimiabeigi, M. Electric vehicle traction motors without rare earth magnets. SM&T. 2015, 3, 7– 13,  DOI: 10.1016/j.susmat.2015.02.001
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    50. 50
      Mahle develops highly efficient magnet-free electric motor. Mahle Newsroom , 2021. https://newsroom.mahle.com/global/media/global_news/2021/05-magnet-free-hv-motor/en-us_20210505_press_release_magnet_free-hv_motor.pdf.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    51. 51
      Raminosoa, T.; Wiles, R.; Cousineau, J. E.; Bennion, K.; Wilkins, J. A High-Speed High-Power-Density Non-Heavy Rare-Earth Permanent Magnet Traction Motor; National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), 2020.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    52. 52
      Butcher, L. Renault teams up with Valeo and Siemens on rare earth-free EV motor. Automative Powertrain Technology International , 2022.https://www.automotivepowertraintechnologyinternational.com/news/electric-powertrain-technologies/renault-teams-up-with-valeo-and-siemens-on-rare-earth-free-ev-motor.html, (accessed on Nov 12, 2022).
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    53. 53
      Renault, Siemens and Valeo to develop rare-earth-free motors. Drives & Controls , 2022. https://drivesncontrols.com/news/fullstory.php/aid/6953/_Renault,_Siemens_and_Valeo_to_develop_rare-earth-free_motors.html (accessed on Nov 15, 2022).
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    54. 54
      Ramprasad, C.; Gwenzi, W.; Chaukura, N.; Izyan Wan Azelee, N.; Upamali Rajapaksha, A.; Naushad, M.; Rangabhashiyam, S. Strategies and options for the sustainable recovery of rare earth elements from electrical and electronic waste. Chem. Eng. J. 2022, 442, 135992,  DOI: 10.1016/j.cej.2022.135992
      54
      Strategies and options for the sustainable recovery of rare earth elements from electrical and electronic waste
      Ramprasad, C.; Gwenzi, Willis; Chaukura, Nhamo; Izyan Wan Azelee, Nur; Upamali Rajapaksha, Anushka; Naushad, M.; Rangabhashiyam, S.
      Chemical Engineering Journal (Amsterdam, Netherlands) (2022), 442 (Part_1), 135992CODEN: CMEJAJ; ISSN:1385-8947. (Elsevier B.V.)
      A review. Rare earth elements (REEs) are among the important elements in various high-technol. appliances globally. Recently, the recovery of REEs from the waste elec. and electronic equipment (WEEE) has gained significant interest for the sustainability of global elec. and electronic industrial markets. The fast-evolving and rapid changing of technol. has made many of these hi-tech equipment become obsolete with high disposal rates. Rising concerns over the depletion of REE sources have led to the need to ext. and recover the REEs from WEEE. However, many studies still need to be carried out to optimize the recovery processes of the REEs in terms of the extn. methods employed and to minimize the environmental impact and hazard towards the flora and fauna. This review outlines the various REEs available in a wide range of elec. and electronic equipment, the various types of REE recovery methods, as well as their environmental impacts. The future perspectives and research directions in terms of the circular economy, policy and regulatory framework and research roadmap for REE recovery from WEEE are also discussed.
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    55. 55
      Forti, V.; Peter Baldé, C.; Kuehr, R.; Bel, G. The Global E-Waste Monitor 2020: Quantities, Flows, and the Circular Economy Potential; United Nations University, International Telecommunication Union, and International Solid Waste Association, 2021.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    56. 56
      Nissan Motor Copporation. Nissan and Waseda University in Japan testing jointly developed recycling process for electrified vehicle motors. Nissan News. https://global.nissannews.com/en/releases/nissan-waseda-university-in-japan-testing-jointly-developed-recycling-process-for-ev-motors (accessed on Nov 12, 2022).
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    57. 57
      Charpentier Poncelet, A.; Helbig, C.; Loubet, P.; Beylot, A.; Muller, S.; Villeneuve, J.; Laratte, B.; Thorenz, A.; Tuma, A.; Sonnemann, G. Losses and lifetimes of metals in the economy. Nat. Sustain. 2022, 5, 717– 726,  DOI: 10.1038/s41893-022-00895-8
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    58. 58
      Xiao, S.; Geng, Y.; Pan, H.; Gao, Z.; Yao, T. Uncovering the key features of dysprosium flows and stocks in China. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2022, 56, 8682– 8690,  DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.1c07724
      58
      Uncovering the Key Features of Dysprosium Flows and Stocks in China
      Xiao, Shijiang; Geng, Yong; Pan, Hengyu; Gao, Ziyan; Yao, Tianli
      Environmental Science & Technology (2022), 56 (12), 8682-8690CODEN: ESTHAG; ISSN:1520-5851. (American Chemical Society)
      Dysprosium (Dy) is a crit. rare earth element and plays an indispensable role in clean energy technologies, such as wind turbines and elec. vehicles. However, its flows and stocks in the whole life cycle and potential barriers to sustainable supply remain unclear, although the demand for Dy is increasing and its reserves are limited. This study aims to track China's Dy cycle for the period of 2000 to 2019 by employing dynamic material flow anal. The results show that (1) demand for Dy had increased by 117-fold, with an accumulative use of 37,317 tons, of which 50% was obtained from illegal mining; (2) 33% of the overall Dy resource was used in wind turbines in 2019, followed by air conditioners and elec. vehicles (22 and 17%, resp.); (3) China's net Dy export had increased by 10-fold from 2000 to 2019, with Dy concs. and final products being the dominant import and export products, resp. Illegal mining, inadequate recycling policies, and limited Dy supply sources are potential barriers influencing sustainable Dy supply.
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    59. 59
      Yao, T.; Geng, Y.; Sarkis, J.; Xiao, S.; Gao, Z. Dynamic neodymium stocks and flows analysis in China. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 2021, 174, 105752,  DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.105752
      59
      Dynamic neodymium stocks and flows analysis in China
      Yao, Tianli; Geng, Yong; Sarkis, Joseph; Xiao, Shijiang; Gao, Ziyan
      Resources, Conservation and Recycling (2021), 174 (), 105752CODEN: RCREEW; ISSN:0921-3449. (Elsevier B.V.)
      Neodymium is widely used for magnetic materials in electronic devices, elec. vehicles and home appliances. China is facing challenges of increased neodymium demand and a lack of neodymium recycling systems. However, few studies focus on neodymium resource utilization in China-a major consumer of this resource. This study traces and forecasts neodymium flows and stocks in China using dynamic material flow anal. from a life cycle perspective. The results show that China's demand for neodymium at the use stage had increased over 20 times during 2000-2017. By contrast, official neodymium prodn. has only doubled, indicating the existence of illegal mining to meet the increasing neodymium demand. Also, the total net neodymium exports have continuously decreased due to reduced export of primary products and intermediate products. In addn., smuggling of primary products remains an issue and needs to be eliminated. Wind turbines and elec. vehicles will become major neodymium consumption sectors greatly increasing future demand requirements. To avoid insufficient recycling and illegal neodymium mining, more appropriate neodymium management policies should be released to balance neodymium supply and demand.
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    60. 60
      Zhang, L.; Yuan, Z.; Bi, J. Predicting future quantities of obsolete household appliances in Nanjing by a stock-based model. Resour Conserv Recycl. 2011, 55, 1087– 1094,  DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2011.06.003
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    61. 61
      Guo, X.; Zhang, J.; Tian, Q. Modeling the potential impact of future lithium recycling on lithium demand in China: A dynamic SFA approach. Renewable Sustainable Energy Rev. 2021, 137, 110461,  DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2020.110461
      61
      Modeling the potential impact of future lithium recycling on lithium demand in China: A dynamic SFA approach
      Guo, Xueyi; Zhang, Jingxi; Tian, Qinghua
      Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews (2021), 137 (), 110461CODEN: RSERFH; ISSN:1364-0321. (Elsevier Ltd.)
      Lithium is considered to be a strategic metal in the world. Its meaningful to evaluate the stocks of recyclable lithium resources and give an estn. on the recycling impact on lithium supply chain. This study establishes a dynamic substance flow model of recyclable lithium resources in China from 2000 to 2030. The model provides sales, stock amt. and secondary utilization amt. of recyclable lithium resources from mobile phone, laptop computer, desktop computer, camera, EV and E-bike in China, based on the historical data. The results indicate that the accumulatively amt. of obsolete LIBs will reach 121 billion until 2030, which contain over 522 kilotons recyclable lithium resources. Among six kinds of products as-investigated, the EV takes the greatest sector and owns the highest growth speed. Considering the current situation that lithium resources are highly-dependent on imports, the domestically yield should be emphasized as a compensation. Technol. and equipment of lithium recycling and salt lake exploitation should be further developed. Specific laws and regulations focusing on the allocation and recycle of lithium resources should to be strictly compliance with, while the alternatives of lithium are supposed to apply to non-battery products.
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    62. 62
      The United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects 2019. https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/news/world-population-prospects-2019-0 (accessed on Feb 12, 2022).
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    63. 63
      United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Urbanization Prospects 2018. https://population.un.org/wup/Download/. (accessed on Feb 12, 2022).
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    64. 64
      Zhou, Y. Dynamic Material Flow Analysis of Indium in China (in Chinese); China University of Geosciences: Wuhan, 2021.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    65. 65
      Xue, L.; Jin, Y.; Yu, R.; Liu, Y.; Ren, H. Toward ’Net Zero’ Emissions in the Road Transport Sector in China; World Resources Institute, 2019. https://wri.org.cn/sites/default/files/2021-12/toward-net-zero-emissions-road-transport-sector-china-CN.pdf.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    66. 66
      International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2021 , 2021. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/4ed140c1-c3f3-4fd9-acae-789a4e14a23c/WorldEnergyOutlook2021.pdf.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    67. 67
      Dong, D.; Tukker, A.; Van der Voet, E. Modeling copper demand in China up to 2050: A business-as-usual scenario based on dynamic stock and flow analysis. J. Ind. Ecol. 2019, 23, 1363– 1380,  DOI: 10.1111/jiec.12926
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    68. 68
      Zhang, S.; Chen, W. Assessing the energy transition in China towards carbon neutrality with a probabilistic framework. Nat. Commun. 2022, 13, 87,  DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27671-0
      68
      Assessing the energy transition in China towards carbon neutrality with a probabilistic framework
      Zhang, Shu; Chen, Wenying
      Nature Communications (2022), 13 (1), 87CODEN: NCAOBW; ISSN:2041-1723. (Nature Portfolio)
      A profound transformation of China's energy system is required to achieve carbon neutrality. Here, we couple Monte Carlo anal. with a bottom-up energy-environment-economy model to generate 3,000 cases with different carbon peak times, technol. evolution pathways and cumulative carbon budgets. The results show that if emissions peak in 2025, the carbon neutrality goal calls for a 45-62% electrification rate, 47-78% renewable energy in primary energy supply, 5.2-7.9 TW of solar and wind power, 1.5-2.7 PWh of energy storage usage and 64-1,649 MtCO2 of neg. emissions, and synergistically reducing approx. 80% of local air pollutants compared to the present level in 2050. The emission peak time and cumulative carbon budget have significant impacts on the decarbonization pathways, technol. choices, and transition costs. Early peaking reduces welfare losses and prevents overreliance on carbon removal technologies. Technol. breakthroughs, prodn. and consumption pattern changes, and policy enhancement are urgently required to achieve carbon neutrality.
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    69. 69
      Habib, K.; Wenzel, H. Exploring rare earths supply constraints for the emerging clean energy technologies and the role of recycling. J. Clean. Prod. 2014, 84, 348– 359,  DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.04.035
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      Pavel, C. C.; Lacal-Arántegui, R.; Marmier, A.; Schüler, D.; Tzimas, E.; Buchert, M.; Jenseit, W.; Blagoeva, D. Substitution strategies for reducing the use of rare earths in wind turbines. Resour. Policy. 2017, 52, 349– 357,  DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2017.04.010
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    71. 71
      Pavel, C. C.; Thiel, C.; Degreif, S.; Blagoeva, D.; Buchert, M.; Schüler, D.; Tzimas, E. Role of substitution in mitigating the supply pressure of rare earths in electric road transport applications. SM&T. 2017, 12, 62– 72,  DOI: 10.1016/j.susmat.2017.01.003
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    72. 72
      Beijing Zhong Ke San Huan Hi-Tech Co., Ltd. Annual Report of Beijing Zhong Ke San Huan Hi-Tech Co., Ltd. in 2021; Beijing Zhong Ke San Huan Hi-Tech Co., Ltd., 2021.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    73. 73
      Palmer, C. The drive for electric motor innovation. Engineering. 2022, 8, 9– 11,  DOI: 10.1016/j.eng.2021.11.007
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    74. 74
      Roskill. Rare Earths: Outlook to 2030; Roskill, 2020.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    75. 75
      Wang, Q.; Wang, P.; Qiu, Y.; Dai, T.; Chen, W. Byproduct surplus: lighting the depreciative Europium in China’s rare earth boom. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2020, 54, 14686– 14693,  DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.0c02870
      75
      Byproduct Surplus: Lighting the Depreciative Europium in China's Rare Earth Boom
      Wang, Qiao-Chu; Wang, Peng; Qiu, Yang; Dai, Tao; Chen, Wei-Qiang
      Environmental Science & Technology (2020), 54 (22), 14686-14693CODEN: ESTHAG; ISSN:0013-936X. (American Chemical Society)
      Europium (Eu) is often regarded as a crit. mineral due to its byproduct nature, importance to lighting technologies, and global supply concn. However, the existing indicator-based criticality assessments have limitations to capture Eu's supply chain information and thus fall short of reflecting its true criticality. This study quantified the flows and stocks of Eu in mainland China from 1990 to 2018. Results show that: (1) China's Eu demand decreased by 75% from 2011 to 2018, as a result of the lighting technol. transition from fluorescent lamps to light-emitting diodes, which significantly reduced Eu's importance; (2) the supply of Eu mined as a byproduct kept increasing together with the growing rare earth prodn., which caused a substantial supply surplus being ≈1900 t by 2018; (3) despite the leading role of China in global Eu prodn., Eu mined in China was exported mainly in the form of intermediate and final products, and ≈90% Eu embedded in domestically produced final products was used for export recently. This study indicates that Eu's criticality is not as severe as previously assessed and highlights the necessity of material flow anal. for a holistic and dynamic view on the entire supply chain of crit. minerals.
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    76. 76
      de Koning, A.; Kleijn, R.; Huppes, G.; Sprecher, B.; van Engelen, G.; Tukker, A. Metal supply constraints for a low-carbon economy?. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 2018, 129, 202– 208,  DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.10.040
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    77. 77
      Elshkaki, A.; Graedel, T. E. Dysprosium, the balance problem, and wind power technology. Appl. Energy. 2014, 136, 548– 559,  DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.09.064
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    78. 78
      Shen, Y.; Moomy, R.; Eggert, R. G. China’s public policies toward rare earths, 1975–2018. Miner. Econ. 2020, 33, 127– 151,  DOI: 10.1007/s13563-019-00214-2
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    79. 79
      Dunn, J.; Slattery, M.; Kendall, A.; Ambrose, H.; Shen, S. Circularity of Lithium-Ion Battery Materials in Electric Vehicles. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2021, 55, 5189– 5198,  DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.0c07030
      79
      Circularity of Lithium-Ion Battery Materials in Electric Vehicles
      Dunn, Jessica; Slattery, Margaret; Kendall, Alissa; Ambrose, Hanjiro; Shen, Shuhan
      Environmental Science & Technology (2021), 55 (8), 5189-5198CODEN: ESTHAG; ISSN:0013-936X. (American Chemical Society)
      Batteries have the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions from on-road transportation. However, environmental and social impacts of producing lithium-ion batteries, particularly cathode materials, and concerns over material criticality are frequently highlighted as barriers to widespread elec. vehicle adoption. Circular economy strategies, like reuse and recycling, can reduce impacts and secure regional supplies. To understand the potential for circularity, we undertake a dynamic global material flow anal. of pack-level materials that includes scenario anal. for changing battery cathode chemistries and elec. vehicle demand. Results are produced regionwise and through the year 2040 to est. the potential global and regional circularity of lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, iron, aluminum, copper, and graphite, although the anal. is focused on the cathode materials. Under idealized conditions, retired batteries could supply 60% of cobalt, 53% of lithium, 57% of manganese, and 53% of nickel globally in 2040. If the current mix of cathode chemistries evolves to a market dominated by NMC 811, a low cobalt chem., there is potential for 85% global circularity of cobalt in 2040. If the market steers away from cathodes contg. cobalt, to an LFP-dominated market, cobalt, manganese, and nickel become less relevant and reach circularity before 2040. For each market to benefit from the recovery of secondary materials, recycling and manufg. infrastructure must be developed in each region.
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    80. 80
      Liu, S.; Fan, H.; Liu, X.; Meng, J.; Butcher, A. R.; Yann, L.; Yang, K.; Li, X. Global rare earth elements projects: New developments and supply chains. Ore Geol. Rev. 2023, 157, 105428,  DOI: 10.1016/j.oregeorev.2023.105428
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    81. 81
      Zhang, T.; Zhang, P.; Peng, K.; Feng, K.; Fang, P.; Chen, W.; Zhang, N.; Wang, P.; Li, J. Allocating environmental costs of China’s rare earth production to global consumption. Sci. Total Environ. 2022, 831, 154934,  DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154934
      81
      Allocating environmental costs of China's rare earth production to global consumption
      Zhang, Tingting; Zhang, Pengfei; Peng, Kun; Feng, Kuishuang; Fang, Pei; Chen, Weiqiang; Zhang, Ning; Wang, Peng; Li, Jiashuo
      Science of the Total Environment (2022), 831 (), 154934CODEN: STENDL; ISSN:0048-9697. (Elsevier B.V.)
      China provides over 80% of global rare earth (RE) that caused serious domestic environmental impacts. However, how much RE-related pollution was transferred to China along global supply chain remains poorly understood. Here we, for the first time, established the RE industry-specific input-output approaches to trace environmental costs transfer through China's RE exports from whole supply chain perspective. We found that foreign consumption contributed over half of the environmental costs from China's RE prodn., with a gross value increasing from $4.8 billion (65% of total environmental costs) in 2010 to $5.4 billion in 2015 (74% of total environmental costs). Countries in the East Asia (i.e., Japan and South Korea) made the largest contribution (27-37%) to the exports induced environmental costs, followed by North America (i.e., the United States, Mexico, and Canada) with a contribution of 20-27% and the rest East Asia (including countries in Asia-Pacific except China Mainland, by 16-23%). Exports induced environmental costs were mainly from RE raw materials (60%) and high value-added products (22%). Suggestions such as rationalizing RE cost as well as prodn.- and consumption-based measures to mitigate environmental impacts were proposed to enhance RE utilities for global sustainable development.
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    82. 82
      Patz, J. A.; Campbell-Lendrum, D.; Holloway, T.; Foley, J. A. Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature. 2005, 438, 310– 317,  DOI: 10.1038/nature04188
      82
      Impact of regional climate change on human health
      Patz, Jonathan A.; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A.
      Nature (London, United Kingdom) (2005), 438 (7066), 310-317CODEN: NATUAS; ISSN:0028-0836. (Nature Publishing Group)
      A review. The World Health Organization ests. that the warming and pptn. trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heat waves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation, sub-Saharan Africa, and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.
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    83. 83
      BP. Statistical Review of World Energy 2021 , 2022. https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-full-report.pdf.
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    84. 84
      Sun, L.; Cui, H.; Ge, Q. Will China achieve its 2060 carbon neutral commitment from the provincial perspective?. Adv. Clim. Change Res. 2022, 13, 169– 178,  DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2022.02.002
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    85. 85
      Li, L.; Zhang, Y.; Zhou, T.; Wang, K.; Wang, C.; Wang, T.; Yuan, L.; An, K.; Zhou, C.; Lu, G. Mitigation of China’s carbon neutrality to global warming. Nat. Commun. 2022, 13, 5315,  DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-33047-9
      85
      Mitigation of China's carbon neutrality to global warming
      Li, Longhui; Zhang, Yue; Zhou, Tianjun; Wang, Kaicun; Wang, Can; Wang, Tao; Yuan, Linwang; An, Kangxin; Zhou, Chenghu; Lu, Guonian
      Nature Communications (2022), 13 (1), 5315CODEN: NCAOBW; ISSN:2041-1723. (Nature Portfolio)
      Projecting mitigations of carbon neutrality from individual countries in relation to future global warming is of great importance for depicting national climate responsibility but is poorly quantified. Here, we show that China's carbon neutrality (CNCN) can individually mitigate global warming by 0.48°C and 0.40°C, which account for 14% and 9% of the global warming over the long term under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 scenarios, resp. Further incorporating changes in CH4 and N2O emissions in assocn. with CNCN together will alleviate global warming by 0.21°C and 0.32°C for SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 over the long term, and even by 0.18°C for SSP2-4.5 over the mid-term, but no significant impacts are shown for all SSPs in the near term. Divergent responses in alleviated warming are seen at regional scales. The results provide a useful ref. for the global stocktake, which assesses the collective progress towards the climate goals of the Paris Agreement.
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    86. 86
      Valero, A.; Valero, A.; Calvo, G.; Ortego, A. Material bottlenecks in the future development of green technologies. Renew. Sust. Energy Rev. 2018, 93, 178– 200,  DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2018.05.041
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    87. 87
      Watari, T.; McLellan, B.; Ogata, S.; Tezuka, T. Analysis of Potential for Critical Metal Resource Constraints in the International Energy Agency’s Long-Term Low-Carbon Energy Scenarios. Minerals. 2018, 8, 156,  DOI: 10.3390/min8040156
      87
      Analysis of potential for critical metal resource constraints in the international energy agency's long-term low-carbon energy scenarios
      Watari, Takuma; McLellan, Benjamin C.; Ogata, Seiichi; Tezuka, Tetsuo
      Minerals (Basel, Switzerland) (2018), 8 (4), 156/1-156/34CODEN: MBSIBI; ISSN:2075-163X. (MDPI AG)
      As environmental problems assocd. with energy systems become more serious, it is necessary to address them with consideration of their interconnections-for example, the energy-mineral nexus. Specifically, it is unclear whether long-term energy scenarios assuming the expansion of low carbon energy technol. are sustainable in terms of resource constraints. However, there are few studies that comprehensively analyze the possibility of resource constraints in the process of introducing low carbon energy technol. from a long-term perspective. Hence, to provide guidelines for technol. development and policy-making toward realizing the low carbon society, this paper undertakes the following: (1) Estn. of the impact of the expansion of low carbon energy technol. on future metal demand based, on the International Energy Agency (IEA)'s scenarios; (2) estn. of the potential effects of low carbon energy technol. recycling on the future supply-demand balance; (3) identification of crit. metals that require priority measures. Results indicated that the introduction of solar power and next-generation vehicles may be hindered by resource depletion. Among the metals examd., indium, tellurium, silver, lithium, nickel and platinum were identified as crit. metals that require specific measures. As recycling can reduce primary demand by 20%∼70% for low carbon energy technol., countermeasures including recycling need to be considered.
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    88. 88
      Watari, T.; Nansai, K.; Nakajima, K. Review of critical metal dynamics to 2050 for 48 elements. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 2020, 155, 104669,  DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.104669
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    89. 89
      Hoenderdaal, S.; Tercero Espinoza, L.; Marscheider-Weidemann, F.; Graus, W. Can a dysprosium shortage threaten green energy technologies?. Energy. 2013, 49, 344– 355,  DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2012.10.043
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    90. 90
      International Energy Agency. Net Zero by 2050-A Roadmap for The Global Energy Sector , 2021. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/deebef5d-0c34-4539-9d0c-10b13d840027/NetZeroby2050-ARoadmapfortheGlobalEnergySector_CORR.pdf.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    91. 91
      van Soest, H. L.; den Elzen, M. G. J.; van Vuuren, D. P. Net-zero emission targets for major emitting countries consistent with the Paris Agreement. Nat. Commun. 2021, 12, 2140,  DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22294-x
      91
      Net-zero emission targets for major emitting countries consistent with the Paris Agreement
      van Soest, Heleen L.; den Elzen, Michel G. J.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.
      Nature Communications (2021), 12 (1), 2140CODEN: NCAOBW; ISSN:2041-1723. (Nature Research)
      Abstr.: Over 100 countries have set or are considering net-zero emissions or neutrality targets. However, most of the information on emissions neutrality (such as timing) is provided for the global level. Here, we look at national-level neutrality-years based on globally cost-effective 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios from integrated assessment models. These results indicate that domestic net zero greenhouse gas and CO2 emissions in Brazil and the USA are reached a decade earlier than the global av., and in India and Indonesia later than global av. These results depend on choices like the accounting of land-use emissions. The results also show that carbon storage and afforestation capacity, income, share of non-CO2 emissions, and transport sector emissions affect the variance in projected phase-out years across countries. We further compare these results to an alternative approach, using equity-based rules to establish target years. These results can inform policymakers on net-zero targets.
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    92. 92
      Ayuk, E. T.; Pedro, A. M.; Ekins, P. Mineral Resource Governance in the 21st Century: Gearing Extractive Industries Towards Sustainable Development; UN International Resources Panel, 2020.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    93. 93
      Liu, H. Rare Earth: Shades of Grey-Can. China Continue to Fuel Our Global Clear& Smart Future?; China Water Risk, 2016.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    94. 94
      Elshkaki, A. Sustainability of emerging energy and transportation technologies is impacted by the coexistence of minerals in nature. Communications Earth & Environment. 2021, 2, 186,  DOI: 10.1038/s43247-021-00262-z
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    95. 95
      Schreiber, A.; Marx, J.; Zapp, P. Life Cycle Assessment studies of rare earths production - Findings from a systematic review. Sci. Total Environ. 2021, 791, 148257,  DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148257
      95
      Life Cycle Assessment studies of rare earths production - Findings from a systematic review
      Schreiber, Andrea; Marx, Josefine; Zapp, Petra
      Science of the Total Environment (2021), 791 (), 148257CODEN: STENDL; ISSN:0048-9697. (Elsevier B.V.)
      A review. Rare earth elements (REEs) are one of the most important elements used for transformation of the fossil era into a decarbonized future. REEs are essential for wind, elec. and hybrid vehicles, and low-energy lighting. However, there is a general understanding that REEs come along with multiple environmental problems during their extn. and processing. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a well-established method for a holistic evaluation of environmental effects of a product system considering the entire life cycle. This paper reviews LCA studies for detg. the environmental impacts of rare earth oxide (REO) prodn. from Bayan Obo and ion adsorption clays (IAC) in China, and shows why some studies lead to over- and underestimated results. We found out that current LCA studies of REE prodn. provide a good overall understanding of the underlying process chains, which are mainly located in China. However, life cycle inventories (LCI) appear often not complete. Several lack accuracy, consistency, or transparency. Hence, resulting environmental impacts are subject to great uncertainty. This applies in particular to radioactivity and the handling of wastewater and slurry in tailing ponds, which have often been neglected. This article reviews 35 studies to identify suitable LCAs for comparison. The assessment covers the world's largest REO prodn. facility, located in Bayan Obo, as well as in-situ leaching of IACs in the Southern Provinces of China. A total of 12 studies are selected, 8 for Bayan Obo and IACs each. The LCIs of these studies are reviewed in detail. The effects of over- and underestimated LCIs on the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) are investigated. The partly controversial results of existing LCAs are analyzed thoroughly and discussed. Our results show that an increased consistency in LCA studies on REO prodn. is needed.
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    96. 96
      Golroudbary, S. R.; Makarava, I.; Kraslawski, A.; Repo, E. Global environmental cost of using rare earth elements in green energy technologies. Sci. Total Environ. 2022, 832, 155022,  DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155022
      96
      Global environmental cost of using rare earth elements in green energy technologies
      Golroudbary, Saeed Rahimpour; Makarava, Iryna; Kraslawski, Andrzej; Repo, Eveliina
      Science of the Total Environment (2022), 832 (), 155022CODEN: STENDL; ISSN:0048-9697. (Elsevier B.V.)
      Decarbonization of economy is intended to reduce the consumption of non-renewable energy sources and emissions from them. One of the major components of decarbonization are "green energy" technologies, e.g. wind turbines and elec. vehicles. However, they themselves create new sustainability challenges, e.g. use of green energy contributes to the redn. of consumption of fossil fuels, on one hand, but at the same time it increases demand for permanent magnets contg. considerable amts. of rare earth elements (REEs). This article provides the first global anal. of environmental impact of using rare earth elements in green energy technologies. The anal. was performed applying system dynamics modeling methodol. integrated with life cycle assessment and geometallurgical approach. We provide evidence that an increase by 1% of green energy prodn. causes a depletion of REEs reserves by 0.18% and increases GHG emissions in the exploitation phase by 0.90%. Our results demonstrate that between 2010 and 2020, the use of permanent magnets has resulted cumulatively in 32 billion tonnes CO2-equivalent of GHG emissions globally. It shows that new approaches to decarbonization are still needed, in order to ensure sustainability of the process. The finding highlights a need to design and implement various measures intended to increase REEs reuse, recycling (currently below 1%), limit their dematerialization, increase substitution and develop new elimination technologies. Such measures would support the development of appropriate strategies for decarbonization and environmentally sustainable development of green energy technologies.
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    97. 97
      Gislam, S. Greenland bans uranium mining, halting rare earths project. Industry Europe , 2021. https://industryeurope.com/sectors/metals-mining/greenland-imposes-uranium-mining-ban-halting-huge-rare-earths-project/ (accessed on Mar 11, 2022).
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    98. 98
      Hindu, T. Thousands of Malaysians protest against rare earth plant. The Hindu , 2012. https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/thousands-of-malaysians-protest-against-rare-earth-plant/article2934898.ece, (accessed on Mar 10, 2022).
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    99. 99
      Zhang, H.; Li, X. Myanmar rare earths heading toward China encounter shipment obstacles amid upheaval. Global Times , 2021. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202103/1218983.shtml (accessed on Nov 10, 2022).
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    100. 100
      Turkey Probably Hasn’t Found the Rare Earth Metals It Says It Has. Wired , 2022. https://www.wired.com/story/turkey-rare-earth-metals/ (accessed on Nov 12, 2022).
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    101. 101
      Seok, C.; Choi, H.; Seo, J. Design and analysis of a novel spoke-type motor to reduce the use of rare-earth magnet materials. IET Electric Power Applications. 2021, 15, 1479– 1487,  DOI: 10.1049/elp2.12109
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    102. 102
      Chinwego, C.; Wagner, H.; Giancola, E.; Jironvil, J.; Powell, A. Technoeconomic Analysis of Rare-Earth Metal Recycling Using Efficient Metal Distillation. Jom. 2022, 74, 1296– 1305,  DOI: 10.1007/s11837-021-05045-7
      102
      Technoeconomic Analysis of Rare-Earth Metal Recycling Using Efficient Metal Distillation
      Chinwego, Chinenye; Wagner, Hunter; Giancola, Emily; Jironvil, Jonathan; Powell, Adam
      JOM (2022), 74 (4), 1296-1305CODEN: JOMMER; ISSN:1543-1851. (Springer)
      A review. Recycling has been proposed as a promising potential source of supply to meet some of the US rare-earth demand for use in permanent magnets. The high growth rates of products that make use of rare-earth magnets, particularly wind turbines and elec. and hybrid vehicles, show that their stock in use is on the rise and in the near term will become available as scrap feed for recycling. This study presents an overview of magnet recycling technologies and focuses on the technoeconomic anal. of liq. metal leaching and distn., including the effect of a new continuous gravity-driven multiple effect thermal system (G-METS) metal distn. technol. on energy use and overall cost. The G-METS system can potentially reduce the energy consumption of the overall process to 64 kWh/kg, which is about 30% less than metal prodn. from ore and 61-67% less than the process using conventional distn.
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    103. 103
      Rasheed, M. Z.; Song, M.-s.; Park, S.-m.; Nam, S.-w.; Hussain, J.; Kim, T.-S. Rare Earth Magnet Recycling and Materialization for a Circular Economy─A Korean Perspective. Appl. Sci. 2021, 11, 6739,  DOI: 10.3390/app11156739
      103
      Rare Earth Magnet Recycling and Materialization for a Circular Economy-A Korean Perspective
      Rasheed, Mohammad Zarar; Song, Myung-suk; Park, Sang-min; Nam, Sun-woo; Hussain, Javid; Kim, Taek-Soo
      Applied Sciences (2021), 11 (15), 6739CODEN: ASPCC7; ISSN:2076-3417. (MDPI AG)
      The Republic of Korea is one of the largest consumers and a leading exporter of electronics, medical appliances, and heavy and light vehicles. Rare-earth (RE)-based magnets are indispensable for these technologies, and Korea is totally dependent on imports of compds. or composites of REEs, as the country lacks natural resources. Effect on rare earth supply chain significantly affects Korea's transition towards a green economy. This study investigates the Republic of Korea's approach to developing a secure rare earth supply chain for REE magnets via a recycling and materialization process known as ReMaT. It investigates the progress Korea has made so far regarding ReMaT from both tech. and non-tech. perspectives. Rare earth elements are successfully recycled as part of this process while expts. at the industrial scale is carried out. In this paper, the research results in terms of the extn. efficiency of rare earth elements are discussed and a comparison with previous relevant studies is provided. This study also highlights the opportunities and challenges regarding the implementation of the ReMaT process in order to create a downstream rare earth value chain based on circular economy principles.
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    104. 104
      Carrara, S.; Alves, D. P.; Plazzotta, B.; Pavel, C. Raw Materials Demand for Wind and Solar PV Technologies in the Transition Towards a Decarbonised Energy System; European Commission, 2020.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    105. 105
      International Renewable Energy Agency. World Energy Transitions Outlook 2022: 1.5 °C Pathway , 2022. https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2022/Mar/IRENA_World_Energy_Transitions_Outlook_2022.pdf?rev=6ff451981b0948c6894546661c6658a1.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    106. 106
      Liesbet, G.; Acker, Kv. Metals for Clean Energy: Pathways to Solving Europe’s Raw Materials Challenge; KU Leuven, 2022.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    107. 107
      International Energy Agency. Nuclear Power in a Clean Energy System , 2019. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ad5a93ce-3a7f-461d-a441-8a05b7601887/Nuclear_Power_in_a_Clean_Energy_System.pdf.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    108. 108
      International Energy Agency. Nuclear Power and Secure Energy Transitions: From Today’s Challenges to Tomorrow’s Clean Energy Systems , 2022. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/016228e1-42bd-4ca7-bad9-a227c4a40b04/NuclearPowerandSecureEnergyTransitions.pdf.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    109. 109
      International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2022 , 2022. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/830fe099-5530-48f2-a7c1-11f35d510983/WorldEnergyOutlook2022.pdf.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    110. 110
      International Atomic Energy Agency. Potential Role of Nuclear Energy in National Climate Change Mitigation Strategies , 2021. https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/TE-1984web.pdf.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    111. 111
      International Energy Agency. Energy Technology Perspectives 2023. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/a86b480e-2b03-4e25-bae1-da1395e0b620/EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2023.pdf.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    112. 112
      International Resource Panel. Mineral Resource Governance in the 21st Century: Gearing Extractive Industries Towards Sustainable Development. https://www.resourcepanel.org/reports/mineral-resource-governance-21st-century.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    113. 113
      International Energy Agency. An Energy Sector Roadmap to Carbon Neutrality in China , 2021. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/9448bd6e-670e-4cfd-953c-32e822a80f77/AnenergysectorroadmaptocarbonneutralityinChina.pdf.
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.
    114. 114
      Hoenderdaal, S.; Tercero Espinoza, L.; Marscheider-Weidemann, F.; Graus, W. Can a dysprosium shortage threaten green energy technologies?. Energy. 2013, 49, 344– 355,  DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2012.10.043
      There is no corresponding record for this reference.

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