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Impacts of Potential CO2-Reduction Policies on Air Quality in the United States

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    Impacts of Potential CO2-Reduction Policies on Air Quality in the United States
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    † School of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30332, United States
    ‡ School of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30332, United States
    § Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, New York 10025, United States
    ⊥ NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York 10025, United States
    ∥ Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management, Boston, Massachusetts 02111, United States
    ⊗ School of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30332, United States
    *M. A. Trail. Phone: (770) 330-4601. E-mail: [email protected]
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    Environmental Science & Technology

    Cite this: Environ. Sci. Technol. 2015, 49, 8, 5133–5141
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    https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5b00473
    Published March 26, 2015
    Copyright © 2015 American Chemical Society
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    Abstract

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    Impacts of emissions changes from four potential U.S. CO2 emission reduction policies on 2050 air quality are analyzed using the community multiscale air quality model (CMAQ). Future meteorology was downscaled from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE General Circulation Model (GCM) to the regional scale using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. We use emissions growth factors from the EPAUS9r MARKAL model to project emissions inventories for two climate tax scenarios, a combined transportation and energy scenario, a biomass energy scenario and a reference case. Implementation of a relatively aggressive carbon tax leads to improved PM2.5 air quality compared to the reference case as incentives increase for facilities to install flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. However, less capital is available to install NOX reduction technologies, resulting in an O3 increase. A policy aimed at reducing CO2 from the transportation sector and electricity production sectors leads to reduced emissions of mobile source NOX, thus reducing O3. Over most of the U.S., this scenario leads to reduced PM2.5 concentrations. However, increased primary PM2.5 emissions associated with fuel switching in the residential and industrial sectors leads to increased organic matter (OM) and PM2.5 in some cities.

    Copyright © 2015 American Chemical Society

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    Supporting Information

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    CMAQ modeling domain with EPA US 9 census regions used in the MARKAL 9R modeling; percent change in emissions rates of SO2 and NOX from the reference case over time (from 2005 to 2055) for the CT1, CT2, TE and BE emissions scenarios; seasonal average MDA8 (ppb) for the future year (2050) reference case during spring, summer and fall and the change in seasonal average MDA8 for the CT1 scenario (scenario minus reference), CT2 scenario (scenario minus reference), TE scenario (scenario minus reference) and BE scenario (scenario minus reference). This material is available free of charge via the Internet at http://pubs.acs.org.

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    Environmental Science & Technology

    Cite this: Environ. Sci. Technol. 2015, 49, 8, 5133–5141
    Click to copy citationCitation copied!
    https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5b00473
    Published March 26, 2015
    Copyright © 2015 American Chemical Society
    Request reuse permissions

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