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    Elaborating the History of Our Cementing Societies: An in-Use Stock Perspective
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    † Institute of Geographic Sciences and Nature Resources Research (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China
    ‡ University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    § SDU Life Cycle Engineering, Department of Chemical Engineering, Biotechnology, and Environmental Technology, University of Southern Denmark, 5230 Odense, Denmark
    ∥ Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology, CH-9014, St. Gallen, Switzerland
    ⊥ Industrial Ecology Programme, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), 7191 Trondheim, Norway
    *Phone: + 45 65509441; e-mail: [email protected] and [email protected]
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    Environmental Science & Technology

    Cite this: Environ. Sci. Technol. 2017, 51, 19, 11468–11475
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    https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.7b03077
    Published August 24, 2017
    Copyright © 2017 American Chemical Society
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    Modern cities and societies are built fundamentally based on cement and concrete. The global cement production has risen sharply in the past decades due largely to urbanization and construction. Here we deployed a top-down dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) model to quantify the historical development of cement in-use stocks in residential, nonresidential, and civil engineering sectors of all world countries. We found that global cement production spreads unevenly among 184 countries, with China dominating the global production and consumption after the 1990s. Nearly all countries have shown an increasing trend of per capita cement in-use stock in the past century. The present per capita cement in-use stocks vary from 10 to 40 tonnes in major industrialized and transiting countries and are below 10 tonnes in developing countries. Evolutionary modes identified from historical patterns suggest that per capita in-use cement stock growth generally complies with an S-shape curve and relates closely to affluence and urbanization of a country, but more in-depth and bottom-up investigations are needed to better understand socioeconomic drivers behind stock growth. These identified in-use stock patterns can help us better estimate future demand of cement, explore strategies for emissions reduction in the cement industry, and inform CO2 uptake potentials of cement based products and infrastructure in service.

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    Cite this: Environ. Sci. Technol. 2017, 51, 19, 11468–11475
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