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Spatially and Temporally Explicit Life Cycle Environmental Impacts of Soybean Production in the U.S. Midwest
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Spatially and Temporally Explicit Life Cycle Environmental Impacts of Soybean Production in the U.S. Midwest
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  • Xiaobo Xue Romeiko*
    Xiaobo Xue Romeiko
    Department of Environmental Health Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, One University Place, Rensselaer, New York 12144, United States
    *Email: [email protected]
  • Eun Kyung Lee
    Eun Kyung Lee
    Department of Environmental Health Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, One University Place, Rensselaer, New York 12144, United States
  • Yetunde Sorunmu
    Yetunde Sorunmu
    Department of Environmental Health Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, One University Place, Rensselaer, New York 12144, United States
  • Xuesong Zhang
    Xuesong Zhang
    Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court, College Park, Maryland 20740, United States
    Earth System Sciences Interdisciplinary Center, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 4001 College Park, Maryland 20740, United States
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Environmental Science & Technology

Cite this: Environ. Sci. Technol. 2020, 54, 8, 4758–4768
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https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.9b06874
Published March 23, 2020

Copyright © 2020 American Chemical Society. This publication is available under these Terms of Use.

Abstract

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Understanding spatially and temporally explicit life cycle environmental impacts is critical for designing sustainable supply chains for biofuel and animal sectors. However, annual life cycle environmental impacts of crop production at county scale across mutiple years are lacking. To address this knowledge gap, this study used a combination of Environmental Policy Integrated Climate and process-based life cycle assessment models to quantify life cycle global warming (GWP), eutrophication (EU) and acidification (AD) impacts of soybean production in nearly 1000 Midwest counties yr–1 over 9 years. Sequentially, a machine learning approach was applied to identify the top influential factors among soil, climate, and farming practices, which drive the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of life cycle environmental impacts. The results indicated that significant variations existed in life cycle GWP, EU, and AD among counties and across years. Life cycle GWP impacts ranged from −11.4 to 22.0 kg CO2-eq kg soybean–1, whereas life cycle EU and AD impacts varied by factors of 302 and 44, respectively. Nitrogen application rates, temperature in March and soil texture were the top influencing factors for life cycle GWP impacts. In contrast, soil organic content and nitrogen application rate were the top influencing factors for life cycle EU and AD impacts.

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Copyright © 2020 American Chemical Society

1. Introduction

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Soybean farming plays an important role in ensuring food and energy security and promoting economic prosperity. Processed soybean is the world’s largest source of animal protein feed and the second largest source of vegetable oil. (1) The United States (U.S.) alone produced 4.5 billion bushels of soybean in 2018. (2) The soybean planting area in the U.S. is estimated to expand to 91.5 million acres in 2028, in order to meet the continuously increasing global market of soybean meal and soybean oil. (2) Meanwhile, soybean farming is associated with a range of negative environmental consequences such as global warming and nutrient pollution. (3−8) Nutrient releases from soybean production in the Midwest rank as an important contributor to riverine and coastal eutrophication. (9,10) Quantifying the environmental impacts of soybean production is required for understanding and mitigating the negative environmental impacts of soybean and its derived products.
Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a systematic method for quantifying both on-farm and supply chain environmental impacts of a product, process, or system. (11) In recent years, in a bid to reduce agricultural related environmental emissions, LCA has been used globally for quantifying the life cycle impacts of various crops such as corn, (9,12,13) wheat, (14,15) rice, (16) food cereal, (17) and soybean. (3,4,6,8,9,18−25) However, the quantitative analyses on spatially and temporally explicit life cycle environmental impacts of crop production remain limited.
First, life cycle environmental inventories of soybean production at county scale across multiple years are lacking. Life cycle environmental impacts of soybean production are inherently spatially and temporally heterogeneous, due to different weather, soil, and farming practices across counties and years. (26) A majority of the existing studies on soybean have examined the life cycle environmental impacts of soybean production either at a coarse spatial scale (such as region and country scales) (18,21−24) or for a few specific counties. (20,27) Despite being valuable, these studies are limited in quantifying spatially and temporally explicit life cycle environmental impacts of soybean production. The coarse scale assessment cannot capture the spatial heterogeneity in life cycle environmental impacts among counties, particularly for regions with spatially distinct soil, weather, and farming practices. Furthermore, the existing LCAs of soybean production were either temporally homogeneous (28) or focused on a single year. (8,23,24) Additionally, recent efforts in coupling LCAs with agent based approaches evaluated the important influences of stakeholders’ (i.e., farmers and policy makers) decisions on life cycle environmental impacts of crop production under various climate and geographical contexts. (29,30) Despite the value, these coupled approaches often rely on spatially coarse on-farm release inventory from the ecoinvent database. (29,30) Overall, LCAs of soybean production at finer spatial scales (i.e., county scale) across multiple years are necessary for accurate biophysical accounting, supply chain management, and policy aiding.
Furthermore, the relative influences of weather, soil, and farming practices on life cycle environmental impacts of soybean production are unknown. Some studies (23,27,31) used scenario comparisons to identify the influences of farming locations and practices on life cycle impacts of soybean production. Other studies (9,32) evaluated the variability of life cycle impacts from soybean production by utilizing Monte Carlo assessment. These traditional scenario or variability assessment approaches usually assess small sets of scenarios or input parameters and are often infeasible to systematically identify the relative influences of weather, soil, and farming practice parameters for large spatially and temporally heterogeneous data sets. Such large data sets include life cycle environmental impacts of soybean production over thousands of counties across multiple years. In contrast, machine learning (ML) capable of efficiently computing big data sets have surfaced recently, creating new opportunities to analyze large spatially and temporally heterogeneous data sets. (33) ML has been used in discovering the driving factors for spatial and temporal trends in transportation, public health, and other disciplines. (34−36) The existing applications of ML in LCA focused on either spatially and temporally homogeneous inventory (37−40) or chemical toxicity estimates. (41,42) To our best knowledge, no existing LCA studies have applied ML to identify the relative influences of weather, soil, and farming practices on spatially and temporally explicit environmental impacts from soybean production.
To fill in these knowledge gaps, this study assessed the spatially and temporally explicit life cycle environmental impacts of soybean production in the Midwest region of the U.S. by fusing a biogeochemistry model and process-based LCA model. Furthermore, this study used a ML approach to identify the leading influential factors among weather, soil, and farming practice parameters, which affect the spatially and temporally explicit life cycle environmental impacts. Additionally, this study discussed the implications of spatial and temporally explicit life cycle assessment for biophysical accounting, supply chain management, and environmental remediation.

2. Methodology

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LCA method framework was applied to analyze the life cycle GWP, EU, and AD impacts of soybean production in the 12 U.S. Midwest states. Following the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) standards, an internationally recognized technical evaluation standards for environmental impact assessments (ISO standards: 14040 and 14044), (11,43) four stages of LCA including (i) goal and scope definition, (ii) life cycle inventory, (iii) life cycle impact assessment, and (iv) life cycle interpretation are described in detail. Additionally, machine learning was applied to identify leading variables (i.e., weather, soil characteristics, farming practices) that contribute to life-cycle environmental impacts associated with soybean production in the U.S. Midwest (Figure S2 in the Supporting Information (SI)).

2.1. Goal and Scope Definition

The goals of this study were (1) to quantify the life cycle environmental impacts of soybean production in the U.S. Midwest states at county scale over multiple years, and (2) to identify the most influential factors among weather, soil, and farming practices affecting spatially and temporally explicit life cycle environmental impacts of soybean production. Additionally, this study discusses the potential use of spatially and temporally explicit life cycle environmental impacts for biophysical accounting, supply chain management, and environmental remediation.
This study focused on soybean production in 12 U.S. Midwest states: Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nebraska from 2000 through 2008. These states produced 79% of total national soybean in 2018. (44) The system boundary of this study consisted of foreground and background subsystems, as depicted in Figure 1 and SI Figure S1. The foreground subsystem included all on-farm agronomic operations, such as tillage, application of fertilizers, pesticides, limestone, water irrigation, and their associated on-field carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) emissions. The background subsystem consisted of all supply chain activities including the production of soybean seeds, agrochemicals (i.e., pesticides, fertilizers, and limestone), fuel, electricity, and agricultural machinery (i.e., tractors and harvesting equipment) and their associated environmental releases.

Figure 1

Figure 1. Stages of life cycle assessment (LCA) of soybean production in the U.S. Midwest. The diagram shows the four stages of LCA: (1) Goal and Scope, (2) Life Cycle Inventory, (3) Life Cycle Impact Assessment, and (4) Interpretation.

This study focused on the impact categories of GWP, EU, and AD, mainly because of the emergent needs of mitigating these environmental impacts from soybean production and the data availability of spatially and temporally explicit on-farm releases. The functional unit for the analysis was 1 kg of soybean. This functional unit was chosen, because it has been widely used in previous soybean LCA studies and facilitates a fair comparison with other studies. (9,45,46)

2.2. Life Cycle Inventory (LCI)

The total LCI included on-farm inventory from foreground subsystem and supply chain inventory from background subsystem. Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was used to assess the spatially and temporally explicit on-farm inventory. Process-based LCI approach was used to quantify the supply chain inventory. The LCI of both foreground and background subsystems were combined to obtain the total LCI associated with soybean production (SI Figure S2).

2.2.1. On-Farm LCI from Foreground Subsystem

The on-farm C, N, and P releases were quantified by the EPIC model. The EPIC model is capable of simulating key biophysical and biogeochemical processes such as plant growth and development, water balance, soil erosion, C, and nutrient cycling and associated greenhouse-gas emissions and aqueous nutrient releases, as influenced by weather, soil, and farming practices. (47,48) The EPIC model, which is based on geospatial modeling framework, was adapted to quantify on-farm greenhouse-gas emissions and aqueous nutrient releases at the county level. Daily weather data (i.e., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, etc.), soil conditions (soil organic carbon and soil types), fertilizers application and tillage practices were overlaid to the county-level land use data based on hydrologic unit and political boundary. The linked files were then processed to generate on-farm soil C change, N2O, NH3, P, and N leaching and runoff (SI Figure S3). While daily weather information (e.g., daily temperature and precipitation) was obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (49) soil characteristics (e.g., soil types and soil organic matter) were extracted from the USDA’s Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database. (50) The county-level tillage information (fraction of conventional tillage and no tillage) and state-level fertilizer application rates were provided by the USDA. (51,52) The spatially explicit EPIC modeling system has previously been developed and tested to estimate yields and environmental impacts of major crop systems in the U.S. Midwest. (53,54)SI Table S1 provides the details about the input parameters for EPIC modeling.

2.2.2. Supply Chain LCI from Background Subsystem

The supply chain processes included the production and provision of agrochemicals, seedlings, electricity, and irrigation water. Consistent with EPIC’s data sources, agrochemical application rates for fertilizers, herbicides and lime, and soybean yields were obtained from the USDA National Agricultural Survey Statistics (NASS) at the county scale. (52) Aligned with previous soybean LCA studies, (9,55) this study included the most commonly used herbicides – Glyphosate and 2,4-D. The diesel use was obtained from previous literature. (56) The irrigation requirement for soybean production (in gallons per acres) was obtained from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) at the county level for year 2005, since this information is collected in 5-year intervals. (57) County-level water usage was estimated based on soybean planted area obtained at the county-level from USDA. (52,57) The percentages of groundwater and surface water as irrigation sources were obtained from USDA Farm and Ranch Irrigation Survey (FRIS) and soybean crop planted by acres. (58) The environmental release profiles for these supply chain activities, such as production of agrochemicals and diesel and provision of irrigation water, were obtained from the Ecoinvent v3.1 database (shown in SI Figure S2 and Table S3). (59)

2.3. Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA)

The characterization factors reported by the Tool for Reduction and Assessment of Chemicals and other environmental Impacts (TRACI) assessment model version 2.1 were used to estimate the life cycle environmental impacts. TRACI, developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, integrates environmental transport fate and toxicity models and provides characterization factors specifically for the North American region. (60)
The total life cycle environmental impacts were estimated by the summation of both on-farm and supply chain impacts (see SI eqs S1–S7). (61,62) On-farm environmental impacts were quantified by multiplying the EPIC modeling estimates (detailed in Section 2.2.1) with the corresponding characterization factors, as shown in SI eqs S1 and S2 as well Table S2. Soil carbon fluxes/sequestration and nitrous oxide (N2O) were included to estimate on-farm life cycle GWP. While nutrients leaching and runoff for both N and P were included for on-farm life cycle EU, ammonia (NH3) was included for on-farm life cycle AD. Similarly, supply chain impacts were determined by the sums of products of supply chain inventory values and corresponding characterization factors (SI eqs S1–S7 and Table S3). Life cycle GWP, EU, AD impacts of soybean production in this study are expressed in the units of kg CO2-eq kg soybean–1, g N-eq kg soybean–1, and g SO2-eq kg soybean–1, respectively.

2.4. Life Cycle Interpretation

This study examined the spatial and temporal variability of life cycle GWP, EU, and AD impacts of soybean production across U.S. Midwest counties over 9 years, and assessed the relative contributions of on-farm and supply chain processes across those counties and years. Additionally, the boosted regression tree (BRT) model was used to identify the leading contributors among soil, weather, and farming practice parameters affecting the life cycle impacts.
BRT is a nonparametric and regression tree based approach. (34,63) Regression trees recursively partition data sets to generate a decision tree structure. BRT is the sum of a large number of boosted regression trees to characterize the overall relationship of the response variable to a collection of predictor variables. BRT is capable of capturing both variable interactions and nonlinear relationships. BRT also presents unique advantages of obtaining robust estimates in the presence of colinearity issues, missing data or outliers, particularly for large spatially, and temporally heterogeneous data sets. Due to these strengths, BRT has been utilized to identify top contributing predictors for spatial and temporal processes in ecology, public health, and other fields. (35,64,65) Extending the scope of previous studies, this study applied BRT to identify the top contributing predictors for spatially and temporally explicit life cycle impacts.
To build the BRT model, the following three parameters are required including learning rates (lr), tree complexity (tc), and bag fraction (bf). The lr shrinks the contribution of each tree until obtaining the final best model, whereas the tc determines the depth of interaction between the predictor variables. The bf determines the proportion of samples that are randomly selected to build the model. To maximize the predictive accuracy, lr and bf were set at 0.005 and 0.75, respectively. Hastie et al. suggested that 4–8 splits are sufficient in most cases. (66) Consistent with their suggestions, tc was set to 5 and the number of trees ranged from 0 to 10 000.
Furthermore, to identify the relative influences among weather, soil, and farming practices for life cycle impacts, 31 predictor variables were included in the BRT model. They consist of climate factors (monthly precipitation and monthly temperature), soil characteristics (proportion of soil organic content and types of soil), and farming practices (tillage and N fertilizers). These predictor variables were chosen based on previous studies examining similar environmental impacts associated with crop production. (55,67−71) The response variables were life cycle GWP, EU, and AD impacts calculated based on EPIC and process-based LCA models throughout 2.2 and 2.3. The summary of predicator and response variables is in Table 1. Based on the combination of model parameters, a 10-fold cross validation was conducted to obtain the optimal number of trees (SI Table S4). Additionally, based on the best predictive model, partial dependence plots of life cycle GWP, EU, and AD impacts against predictor variables were created to demonstrate the relative contributions of predictor variables (in percentages) with the summary function in R (shown in Figure 5 and SI Figure S5).
Table 1. Data Sources for the Boosted Regression Modela
predictor variablesdata descriptiondata sourcesspatial resolutiontime resolution
nitrogen fertilizer application ratesoybean fertilizer application rate (lbs acre–1)USDA NASS (44)stateannual
soil organic content (%)percentage of soil organic content measured in soil depth up to 6 mUSDA SSURGO (50)countymultiyear average
soil type: clay, sand, silt (%)percentage of soil typesUSDA SSURGO (50)countymultiyear average
temperature (°C)monthly mean temperatureNOAA (49)countymonthly
precipitation (mm)monthly mean precipitationNOAA (49)countymonthly
farming practices (NT and CT)farming practices in fractionsUSDA (44)countyannual
Response Variables
life cycle GWP, EU, and AD valueslife cycle GWP (kg CO2-eq kg soybean–1), EU (g N-eq kg soybean–1), AD (g SO2-eq kg soybean–1)estimated in this study (2.2 and 2.3)countyannual
a

Abbreviations: CT, conventional tillage; NT, no tillage.

3. Results and Discussion

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3.1. Magnitudes of Soybean’S Life Cycle Impacts in the Midwest Counties for Nine Years

The life cycle GWP impacts varied significantly across the U.S. Midwest counties, spanning from −11.4 kg CO2-eq to 22.0 kg CO2-eq kg soybean–1 (Figure 2 and SI Figure S6). This large variability was mainly driven by the differences in soil carbon fluxes, nitrous oxide emission, and irrigation, as shown in SI Figure S7. For example, Stanton County of Kansas State in year 2000 (SI Figures S6 and S8), exhibiting the highest GWP impact among all Midwest counties across 9 years, had significantly high on-farm soil carbon emission of 2.1 kg CO2-eq kg soybean–1 and moderate on-farm nitrous oxide emission of 0.44 kg CO2-eq kg soybean–1. Additionally, irrigation-related supply chain GHG emissions in Stanton County in year 2000 reached up to 19.4 kg CO2-eq kg soybean–1. In contrast, Crawford County of Kansas State in year 2000, exhibiting the lowest GWP impact among all Midwest counties across 9 years, showed substantial soil carbon sequestration of 13.5 kg CO2-eq kg soybean–1, slightly high nitrogen oxide emission of 1.5 kg CO2-eq kg soybean–1, and minimal irrigation-related GHG emissions as low as 0.006 kg CO2-eq kg soybean–1. The carbon emissions from soil was 15.6 kg CO2-eq kg soybean–1 less in Crawford County than in Stanton County. Moreover, the irrigation related GHG emissions for Crawford County was less than 1% of the irrigation related GHG emissions for Stanton County. Stanton County with 19.4 gallons acre–1 of irrigated cropland required a much higher amount of irrigation water than Crawford County with only 0.006 gallons acre–1 of irrigated land for soybean production (mean: 0.015 gallons acre–1 of irrigation among all counties in Kansas). Furthermore, soybean yield in year 2000 was significantly higher in Crawford County (1412.3 kg ha–1) compared to Stanton County (672.5 kg ha–1).

Figure 2

Figure 2. Maps showing county-level life cycle environmental impacts of soybean production in the U.S. Midwest for years 2002, 2004, and 2006: (A) global warming potential, (B) eutrophication, and (C) acidification.

Life cycle EU impacts among Midwest counties varied from 2.6 to 785.7 g N-eq kg soybean–1. While Rusk County of Wisconsin State in year 2002 displayed the highest EU impact of 785.7 g N-eq kg soybean–1, Adams County of Nebraska State in year 2003 presented the lowest life cycle EU impact of 2.6 g N-eq kg soybean–1 (SI Figures S6 and S8). The differences in on-farm phosphorus leaching and runoff among counties led to this significant spatial disparity. For example, phosphorus leaching and runoff in Rusk County of Wisconsin State reached 738.5 and 34.2 g N-eq kg soybean–1, respectively. In contrast, phosphorus leaching and runoff in Adams County of Nebraska State were as low as 0.2 and 0.8 g N-eq kg soybean–1, respectively.
Life cycle AD impacts across the Midwest counties spanned from 2.8 in Guernsey County of Ohio State in year 2007 to 124.7 g SO2-eq kg soybean–1 in Stanton County of Kansas State in year 2000 (SI Figure S8). Such large spatial variability was mainly caused by the differences in on-farm NH3 emissions and irrigation requirement. Guernsey County, exhibiting the lowest life cycle AD impact, showed very low on-farm NH3 emission of 2.14 g SO2-eq kg soybean–1 and no irrigation related emissions. In contrast, Stanton County, exhibiting the highest life cycle AD impacts, had 10.7 g SO2-eq kg soybean–1 from on-farm NH3 emission and 112.5 g SO2-eq kg soybean–1 from irrigation process.

3.2. Spatial and Temporal Variability in Life Cycle Impacts of Soybean Production among States Across 9 Years

This study suggested that the estimates of life cycle environmental releases at state scale cannot capture the spatial heterogeneity of life cycle environmental releases among counties. The differences in median life cycle impacts among 12 states were much smaller than the differences in life cycle impacts among counties within a state (Figure 3). Utilizing median values of life cycle impacts of soybean production in a Midwest state to represent life cycle impacts of soybean production in a county of that state can lead to large errors. For example, the median life cycle GWP of Kansas (median: −0.46 kg CO2-eq kg soybean–1) in 2000 was nearly 10.9 kg CO2-eq kg soybean–1 higher than the life cycle GWP of −11.4 kg CO2-eq kg soybean–1 in Crawford County in Kansas (county exhibiting the lowest life cycle GWP impacts) during that same year. The median life cycle EU of Wisconsin (median: 39.8 g N-eq kg soybean–1) in 2002 was nearly 19.7 times smaller than the life cycle EU in Rusk County in Wisconsin (county exhibiting the highest life cycle EU impacts) in that same year (785.7 g N-eq kg soybean–1). The median life cycle AD Kansas (median: 15.4 g SO2-eq kg soybean–1) in 2000 was 8.1 times lower than the life cycle AD impacts in Stanton County (county exhibiting the highest life cycle AD impacts) in Kansas in 2000 (124.7 g SO2-eq kg soybean–1).

Figure 3

Figure 3. Statistical distribution of life cycle environmental impacts of soybean production in 12 US Midwest states (2000–2008) state-by-state: (A) Life cycle GWP (kg CO2-eq kg soybean–1), (B) life cycle EU (g N-eq kg soybean–1), and (C) life cycle AD (g SO2-eq kg soybean–1). The error bars represent county-level min and max values and the lines in box plots show 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles.

Moreover, substantial temporal variability existed for life cycle impacts of producing 1 kg soybean. For example, the median life cycle GWP of Crawford County in Kansas state over 9 years was 0.74 kg CO2-eq kg soybean–1, which was 16.4 times larger than the life cycle GWP of the same county in year 2000 (−11.4 kg CO2-eq kg soybean–1). Similarly, the median life cycle EU of Rusk County in Wisconsin state over 9 years was 39.0 g N-eq kg soybean–1, which was 20.1 times lower than the life cycle EU of the same county in year 2002 (785.7 g N-eq kg soybean–1). It was also interesting to note that the differences in life cycle impacts of soybean production among different counties for a single year were more substantial than the differences in the median life cycle impacts of Midwest soybean production over multiple years (Figure 4). For example, the difference in median life cycle EU impacts of Midwest counties across 9 years was less than 46.5 g N-eq kg soybean–1, which was much less than the difference in life cycle EU of Midwest counties in year 2002 at 782.4 g N-eq kg soybean–1.

Figure 4

Figure 4. Statistical distribution of life cycle environmental impacts of soybean production in 12 US Midwest states, 2000–2008 year-by-year: (A) Life cycle GWP (kg CO2-eq kg soybean–1), (B) life cycle EU (g N-eq kg soybean–1), and (C) life cycle AD (g SO2-eq kg soybean–1). The error bars represent county-level min and max values and the lines in box plots show 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles.

Additionally, life cycle EU exhibited greater variability than life cycle GWP and AD impacts (SI Figure S8). The life cycle EU impacts across Midwest counties varied by a factor of 302. In contrast, the life cycle AD impacts across Midwest counties varied by a factor of 44.5. Overall, LCA at county level across multiple years is necessary to reveal the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of life cycle emissions. Caution should be taken, when median values of LCIs for a state are used to approximate the LCIs of a county in that state, particularly for life cycle nutrient releases.

3.3. The Relative Influences of Weather, Soil and Farming Practices on Life Cycle Impacts

The spatial and temporal differences in life cycle impacts of soybean production were caused by the variations in top influencing factors among weather, soil, and farming practices. The application rates of nitrogen fertilizers ranked as the most influential variable for life cycle GWP impacts of producing 1 kg of soybean. Nitrogen application rates influence both on-farm N2O emission and supply chain GHGs from nitrogen fertilizer production (Figure 5a). Following nitrogen application rates, March temperature ranked as the second most influential factor. March temperature influences shift of N2O:N2 ratio (72) and increases N2O emissions during freeze–thaw cycle. (73) Furthermore, July temperature and clay soil content were important influencing predictors to life cycle GWP impacts. Warmer temperatures in July have been shown to enhance N2O emissions by accelerating the soil microbial nitrification–denitrification processes. (74) Furthermore, soil texture played a significant role in the magnitude of GHGs. For instance, finer textured soil (i.e., clay soil) tend to retain more water than coarse textured soil (i.e., sandy soil) and enhance denitrification, therefore resulting in higher N2O emission. (75)

Figure 5

Figure 5. Relative influences of predictor variables to life cycle environmental impacts of: (A) Global warming potential, (B) eutrophication, and (C) acidification of soybean production in 12 U.S. Midwest states from 2000 to 2008. The bars show the relative contributions of predictor variables (x-axis) in percentages.

The spatial and temporal variability of life cycle EU from soybean production was mainly driven by the differences in soil organic content and nitrogen application rates. Soil organic content appeared to be the leading predictor to life cycle EU impacts (Figure 5b). Greater proportion of soil organic matter exhibited higher N losses due to faster decomposition of nutrients, increasing the availability of nutrient losses through leaching and runoff. (76−78) Nitrogen fertilizer application rate was identified as the second most important predictor variable. Consistent with our findings, previous studies (71,79) exhibited the strong association between nitrogen fertilizer application rate and nitrogen leaching and runoff. A higher nitrogen fertilizer application rate resulted in a higher amount of aqueous nitrogen available for leaching and runoff. Additionally, temperature was also positively associated with life cycle EU impacts. Higher temperature promoted soil nitrogen mineralization, consequently increasing nitrogen runoff from soil. (80,81)
The nitrogen fertilizer application rate was the leading predictor to life cycle AD impacts (Figure 5c). This finding was expected since nitrogen fertilizers are well-known to be the primary sources of NH3 emissions from agricultural production. In addition, precipitation in the month of December showed inverse relationships with life cycle AD impacts (SI Figure S5). Based on field measurements conducted in European regions, (82) low precipitation decreased diffusion of NH3 in soil, thereby increasing volatilization losses by 13.1% as in the case of urea. Furthermore, soil organic content (SOC) was the third top predictor variable to life cycle AD impacts. Previous studies (83,84) based on field samples indicated that higher proportions of SOC were associated with increases in urea hydrolyses rates and volatilization. The higher rates of hydrolyses and volatilization were potentially driven by the increase of urease enzymes (more abundant in organic soil) produced by soil microorganisms, consequently enhancing greater N losses from nitrogen fertilizers. (85)

3.4. Comparison of Existing Soybean LCA Literature

Although this study homogenized the system boundary of all 12 studies by excluding the impacts of soybean transportation and processing, large discrepancies existed among reported LCA values for soybean production. This study calculated life cycle GWP to range from −11.4 to 22.1 kg CO2-eq kg soybean–1 in the Midwest, with a median value of 0.56 kg CO2-eq kg soybean–1. The majority of the existing studies estimated median life cycle GWP impacts lower than 0.75 kg CO2-eq kg soybean–1. (8,9,12,13,18,21,23,24,86−88) In contrast, two studies authored by Reijnders and Huijbregts (21) and Castanheira and Freire (81) found significantly higher median life cycle GWP impacts, which were 4.4 and 11.6 kg CO2-eq kg soybean–1, respectively. In particular, Castanheira and Freire’s study (81) indicated the median life cycle GWP of soybean production in Brazil was almost 20 times higher in life cycle GWP impacts than the median life cycle GWP value of this study. Moreover, life cycle EU impacts varied substantially from 0.04 to 70.2 g N-eq kg soybean–1. (8,9,18,23,24) Additionally, life cycle AD impacts changed from 0.002 to 107.4 g SO2-eq kg soybean–1 (Figure 6). (8,9,18,23,24) These reported values for life cycle EU and AD resided in the estimated ranges of this study.

Figure 6

Figure 6. Comparison of existing literature in life cycle analysis of soybean production: (A) global warming potential, (B) eutrophication, and (C) acidification. The orange bars represent the median values of the life cycle environmental impacts of the present study and the blue bars represent the median values of life cycle environmental impacts associated with soybean production in the existing literature. The asterisks below the bars indicate studies focusing on U.S. Midwest regions and the error bars represent min and max values of life cycle environmental impacts for studies providing those values.

These differences in LCA estimates resulted from different choices in spatial and temporal scales, system scopes and LCI/LCIA modeling approaches. Primarily, the majority of the existing studies were based on regional inventory for a single year and did not assess impacts across different counties or years. This study is the first study that comprehensively assesses life cycle GWP, EU, and AD impacts of soybean in approximately 1000 counties across 9 years. Moreover, the studied geographic scopes were diverse. While three studies including this study, Kim and Dale, (12) and Landis et al. (9) focused on Midwest region in the U.S., other studies investigated soybean farming in Pennsylvania in the U.S., (23,86) Brazil, (21,24,89) Nigeria, (18) Iran, (88) and Argentina. (8) Furthermore, soil carbon change was not always included in the system scope. While this study and two other studies (27,89) included soil carbon change for life cycle GWP, the remaining studies (23,88,89) did not account for soil carbon change. It is worth noting that soil carbon change is one of top contributors to the total life cycle GWP. Additionally, different modeling approaches were utilized to generate on-farm LCI. This study used EPIC, a well-recognized process-based biogeochemical model, to capture spatially and temporally heterogeneous on-farm emissions. Other studies used DAYCENT, (27) GREET, (9,87) or literature based values (88) to account for on-farm environmental releases. Although process-based biogeochemistry models such as EPIC and DAYCENT are more complex than other models, they are uniquely capable of simulating the spatially and temporally explicit environmental releases influenced by weather, soil, and farming practices. Various impact assessment tools were utilized to compute life cycle EU and AD impacts of soybean. This study and Xue et al. (23) used characterization factors from TRACI 2.0 for life cycle EU and AD. In contrast, Zortea (24) and Panicelli (8) used characterization factors from CML for life cycle EU and AD. While Landis et al. only reported life cycle inventory, this study computed their life cycle EU and AD impact based on TRACI 2.0.

3.5. Implication for Biophysical Accounting and Supply Chain Management

Utilizing the life cycle impact intensities of soybean production at coarse scales (i.e., state or region scales) for estimating the total life cycle environmental impacts of soybean production can yield large errors (SI Figures S11, S12, and S13). For example, the total life cycle GHGs from soybean production in the Midwest was estimated to be 3.95 × 109 kg CO2-eq in 2003, by multiplying the median life cycle GWP intensity at state scale and the corresponding soybean production in the same state. This value is only a third of the actual total life cycle environmental impacts in 2003, calculated by multiplying the life cycle GHG intensity at county scale and the corresponding soybean production in the same county. Similarly, utilizing the median life cycle EU intensity of soybean production at state scale would underestimate the total life cycle EU of soybean production in the Midwest by 19% in 2001. Relying on the median life cycle AD intensity of soybean production at state scale would underestimate the total life cycle AD of soybean production in the Midwest by 27%. It is necessary to capture spatial heterogeneity at fine spatial scales (such as county) in order to yield reliable biophysical accounting for agricultural life cycle impacts over a large region such as the Midwest.
The spatial hotspots of life cycle GWP, EU, and AD were not consistent, revealing location-specific and impact-specific strategies are required to mitigate the life cycle environmental impacts of soybean production. For counties and states where soybean production presented high life cycle global warming impact, mitigation strategies effectively reducing on-farm N2O emission and promoting soil carbon sequestration are needed. In contrast, for counties and states where soybean production caused high life cycle EU impacts, mitigation strategies, such as buffers and low-release fertilizers, capable of decreasing on-farm aqueous P and N releases are required. (32,90,91) Furthermore, for counties and states where soybean production showed high life cycle AD impacts, mitigation strategies capable of decreasing on-farm NH3 releases are necessary. Additionally, the BRT analyses highlighted that the life cycle GWP, EU, and AD were influenced by nitrogen fertilizer application rate and soil organic carbon in addition to temperature and precipitation. These findings suggest the importance of improving soil organic carbon and nitrogen fertilizer use for reducing life cycle impacts of soybean. Overall, spatially targeted strategies are required for effectively mitigating life cycle environmental impacts of soybean production.
The spatially explicit life cycle impact estimates yielded from this study improve the transparency of life cycle environmental performances of soybean supply chains and serve as the scientific basis for designing environmentally friendly sourcing strategies. Sourcing soybean from producing counties with the lowest life cycle environmental impacts is capable of mitigating life cycle environmental impacts of these soybean derived products such as soybean-based biodiesel, milk, or meat from animal operations utilizing soybean as feed. For example, if biorefineries utilize soybeans from counties with the lowest life cycle EU impacts to produce biodiesel, the life cycle EU of soybean-derived biodiesel would be reduced by at least 54%. This estimate was based on three observations, including (1) soybean farming contributes to 70% of total life cycle EU of soybean derived biodiesel; (8,23) (2) switching soybean suppliers from counties with median life cycle EU to the counties with the lowest life cycle EU would decrease life cycle EU of soybean farming stage for biodiesel production by 80% (this study); and (3) Life cycle EU of transporting soybean is insignificant, compared with life cycle EU of soybean farming. (23) Overall, the spatially and temporally explicit LCA estimates of soybean production serve as critical basis for designing effective remediation strategies and environmentally friendly supply chains for soybean derived products.

Supporting Information

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The Supporting Information is available free of charge at https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.9b06874.

  • Figures showing the system boundary, EPIC/LCA/BRT model integration, life cycle environmental impacts of soybean for Midwest counties over nine years, stage contributions at county and state scales, statistical distributions of life cycle GWP with/out net carbon exchange, the improvements on biophysical accounting with county scale estimates, and sensitivity analyses; Tables showing the detailed data sources for EPIC, impact intensities for supply chain LCI, characterization factors for LCIA, and highest/lowest values of life cycle impacts of soybean in the Midwest; Equations utilized to estimate life cycle impacts (PDF)

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Author Information

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  • Corresponding Author
  • Authors
    • Eun Kyung Lee - Department of Environmental Health Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, One University Place, Rensselaer, New York 12144, United States
    • Yetunde Sorunmu - Department of Environmental Health Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, One University Place, Rensselaer, New York 12144, United States
    • Xuesong Zhang - Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court, College Park, Maryland 20740, United StatesEarth System Sciences Interdisciplinary Center, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 4001 College Park, Maryland 20740, United States
  • Notes
    The authors declare no competing financial interest.

Acknowledgments

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We acknowledge the Presidential Innovation Fund for Research and Scholarship Award and the Faculty Research Award from the State University of New York at Albany for sponsoring this work. X.Z. gratefully acknowledges support from NASA (NNH13ZDA001N, NNX17AE66G, and 18-CMS18-0052) and NSF (1639327). We also thank the anonymous reviewers for their comments that improved the quality of the manuscript.

References

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Environmental Science & Technology

Cite this: Environ. Sci. Technol. 2020, 54, 8, 4758–4768
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  • Abstract

    Figure 1

    Figure 1. Stages of life cycle assessment (LCA) of soybean production in the U.S. Midwest. The diagram shows the four stages of LCA: (1) Goal and Scope, (2) Life Cycle Inventory, (3) Life Cycle Impact Assessment, and (4) Interpretation.

    Figure 2

    Figure 2. Maps showing county-level life cycle environmental impacts of soybean production in the U.S. Midwest for years 2002, 2004, and 2006: (A) global warming potential, (B) eutrophication, and (C) acidification.

    Figure 3

    Figure 3. Statistical distribution of life cycle environmental impacts of soybean production in 12 US Midwest states (2000–2008) state-by-state: (A) Life cycle GWP (kg CO2-eq kg soybean–1), (B) life cycle EU (g N-eq kg soybean–1), and (C) life cycle AD (g SO2-eq kg soybean–1). The error bars represent county-level min and max values and the lines in box plots show 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles.

    Figure 4

    Figure 4. Statistical distribution of life cycle environmental impacts of soybean production in 12 US Midwest states, 2000–2008 year-by-year: (A) Life cycle GWP (kg CO2-eq kg soybean–1), (B) life cycle EU (g N-eq kg soybean–1), and (C) life cycle AD (g SO2-eq kg soybean–1). The error bars represent county-level min and max values and the lines in box plots show 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles.

    Figure 5

    Figure 5. Relative influences of predictor variables to life cycle environmental impacts of: (A) Global warming potential, (B) eutrophication, and (C) acidification of soybean production in 12 U.S. Midwest states from 2000 to 2008. The bars show the relative contributions of predictor variables (x-axis) in percentages.

    Figure 6

    Figure 6. Comparison of existing literature in life cycle analysis of soybean production: (A) global warming potential, (B) eutrophication, and (C) acidification. The orange bars represent the median values of the life cycle environmental impacts of the present study and the blue bars represent the median values of life cycle environmental impacts associated with soybean production in the existing literature. The asterisks below the bars indicate studies focusing on U.S. Midwest regions and the error bars represent min and max values of life cycle environmental impacts for studies providing those values.

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  • Supporting Information

    Supporting Information


    The Supporting Information is available free of charge at https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.9b06874.

    • Figures showing the system boundary, EPIC/LCA/BRT model integration, life cycle environmental impacts of soybean for Midwest counties over nine years, stage contributions at county and state scales, statistical distributions of life cycle GWP with/out net carbon exchange, the improvements on biophysical accounting with county scale estimates, and sensitivity analyses; Tables showing the detailed data sources for EPIC, impact intensities for supply chain LCI, characterization factors for LCIA, and highest/lowest values of life cycle impacts of soybean in the Midwest; Equations utilized to estimate life cycle impacts (PDF)


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