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Mapping U.S. Food System Localization Potential: The Impact of Diet on Foodsheds
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    Mapping U.S. Food System Localization Potential: The Impact of Diet on Foodsheds
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    • Julie E. Kurtz*
      Julie E. Kurtz
      International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, District of Columbia 20005, United States
      Tufts University, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Boston, Massachusetts 02111, United States
      *E-mail: [email protected]
      More by Julie E. Kurtz
      Orcidhttp://orcid.org/0000-0002-5529-2077
    • Peter B. Woodbury
      Peter B. Woodbury
      Cornell University, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Ithaca, New York 14853, United States
      More by Peter B. Woodbury
    • Zia U. Ahmed
      Zia U. Ahmed
      University at Buffalo, RENEW Institute, Buffalo, New York 14260, United States
      Cornell University, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Ithaca, New York 14853, United States
      More by Zia U. Ahmed
    • Christian J. Peters
      Christian J. Peters
      Tufts University, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Boston, Massachusetts 02111, United States
      More by Christian J. Peters
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    Environmental Science & Technology

    Cite this: Environ. Sci. Technol. 2020, 54, 19, 12434–12446
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    https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.9b07582
    Published September 14, 2020
    Copyright © 2020 American Chemical Society
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    Abstract

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    In the long term, food systems must heed natural resource limits. Localized production and dietary changes are often suggested as potential solutions. However, no U.S. analyses fully evaluate the feasibility to scale localization across a range of diets. We therefore modeled the biophysical capacity for regional food systems based on agricultural land area and productivity, population, and 7 diet scenarios ranging in meat-intensity, from current consumption to vegan. We estimated foodshed size, colloquially known as “food miles” for 378 U.S. metropolitan centers, in a hypothetical nationwide closed system that prioritizes localized food. We found that foodshed size (weighted average distance traveled) for three land types ranged from 351–428 km (cultivated cropland), 80–492 km (perennial forage cropland), and 117–799 km (grazing land). Localized potential varies regionally: foodsheds are generally larger in the populous Northeast, Southeast, and Southwest than in the Northwest and the center of the country. However, depending on consumption of animal-based foods, a sizable proportion of the population could meet its food needs within 250km: from 35%–53% (cultivated cropland), 39%–94% (perennial forage cropland, 100% for vegan), and 26%–88% (grazing land, 100% for ovolacto-vegetarian and vegan). All seven scenarios leave some land unused. This reserve capacity might be used to supply food to the global market, grow bioenergy crops, or for conservation.

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    Supporting Information

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    The Supporting Information is available free of charge at https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.9b07582.

    • Productivity Index; Table S1, scheme used to reclassify categories of the cropland data layer; Table S2, parameters of linear regression models to estimate yield based NCCPI; Figure S1, results of reclassification of land cover categories from the cropland data layer; Figure S2, results of merging the national crop-productivity index; Table S3, complete food group and subgroup intakes for 7 diet scenarios; Figure S3, productivity index maps: cultivated, perennial and grazing land; Figure S4, adjusted footprints by diet type; Figure S5, self-sufficiency comparison of positive control and 20% omnivorous diets; Table S4, generalized layout of the optimization problem solved in the U.S. foodshed model; Table S6, foodshed size (weighted average source distance) for 378 U.S. population centers; Figure S6, potential local foodsheds for supplying cultivated cropland HNEs; Figure S7, potential local foodsheds for supplying perennial forage cropland HNEs; and Figure S8, potential local foodsheds for supplying grazing land HNEs (PDF)

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    Environmental Science & Technology

    Cite this: Environ. Sci. Technol. 2020, 54, 19, 12434–12446
    Click to copy citationCitation copied!
    https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.9b07582
    Published September 14, 2020
    Copyright © 2020 American Chemical Society
    Request reuse permissions

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