The Impact of Decarbonization on Particulate Soiling of Solar PanelsClick to copy article linkArticle link copied!
- Drew Shindell*Drew Shindell*Email: [email protected]Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708, United StatesMore by Drew Shindell
- Ivan PetropoulosIvan PetropoulosNicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708, United StatesMore by Ivan Petropoulos
- Greg FaluvegiGreg FaluvegiNASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies & Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, New York 11215, United StatesMore by Greg Faluvegi
- Luke ParsonsLuke ParsonsNicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708, United StatesMore by Luke Parsons
- Michael BerginMichael BerginCivil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708, United StatesMore by Michael Bergin
Abstract

Climate researchers have examined many impacts of climate change on energy supply and demand under various scenarios. However, the effect of changing particulate deposition onto solar panel surfaces on solar power production efficiency (i.e., soiling) has not been studied. We therefore characterize probabilistic outcomes across multiple climate models and scenarios. We find large current regional losses (up to 40% without manual cleaning, up to 20% with monthly cleaning and rain removal) in generation that grow slightly under a high-emission scenario, largely due to regional increases in windblown dust. In contrast, under a low-emissions scenario, potential production increases significantly (2–8% interquartile range with only rain removal) due to reduced soiling, especially in regions of Asia and Africa where anthropogenic aerosols are major contributors to soiling. Projected changes vary widely across models in many dusty areas outside of the Sahara and Arabia. Differences can also be large in regions dominated by anthropogenic aerosols, such as Nigeria, eastern China, and northern India, where the full range across modeled potential power production changes extends from −1 to +11% for the end of the century (without manual cleaning), underscoring the need to consider multiple climate models. With large increases in projected solar power deployment, the relatively small potential production increases reported here could nevertheless represent a large dividend in additional energy production. Hence, reductions in air pollution attributable to decarbonization could provide positive feedback under which a greater deployment of solar power (or other renewables) increases the production of solar power, facilitating the transition to renewable energy.
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