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The Impact of Decarbonization on Particulate Soiling of Solar Panels
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    The Impact of Decarbonization on Particulate Soiling of Solar Panels
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    • Drew Shindell*
      Drew Shindell
      Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708, United States
      *Email: [email protected]
    • Ivan Petropoulos
      Ivan Petropoulos
      Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708, United States
    • Greg Faluvegi
      Greg Faluvegi
      NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies & Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, New York 11215, United States
    • Luke Parsons
      Luke Parsons
      Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708, United States
      More by Luke Parsons
    • Michael Bergin
      Michael Bergin
      Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708, United States
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    ACS ES&T Air

    Cite this: ACS EST Air 2024, 1, 12, 1531–1540
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    https://doi.org/10.1021/acsestair.4c00105
    Published October 30, 2024
    Copyright © 2024 American Chemical Society

    Abstract

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    Climate researchers have examined many impacts of climate change on energy supply and demand under various scenarios. However, the effect of changing particulate deposition onto solar panel surfaces on solar power production efficiency (i.e., soiling) has not been studied. We therefore characterize probabilistic outcomes across multiple climate models and scenarios. We find large current regional losses (up to 40% without manual cleaning, up to 20% with monthly cleaning and rain removal) in generation that grow slightly under a high-emission scenario, largely due to regional increases in windblown dust. In contrast, under a low-emissions scenario, potential production increases significantly (2–8% interquartile range with only rain removal) due to reduced soiling, especially in regions of Asia and Africa where anthropogenic aerosols are major contributors to soiling. Projected changes vary widely across models in many dusty areas outside of the Sahara and Arabia. Differences can also be large in regions dominated by anthropogenic aerosols, such as Nigeria, eastern China, and northern India, where the full range across modeled potential power production changes extends from −1 to +11% for the end of the century (without manual cleaning), underscoring the need to consider multiple climate models. With large increases in projected solar power deployment, the relatively small potential production increases reported here could nevertheless represent a large dividend in additional energy production. Hence, reductions in air pollution attributable to decarbonization could provide positive feedback under which a greater deployment of solar power (or other renewables) increases the production of solar power, facilitating the transition to renewable energy.

    Copyright © 2024 American Chemical Society

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    Supporting Information

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    The Supporting Information is available free of charge at https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsestair.4c00105.

    • (1) Additional description of the solar transmission loss modeling, (2) discussion of the sensitivity of results to precipitation, (3) discussion of the robustness of precipitation projections, and (4) discussion of the sensitivity of results to dust (PDF)

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    ACS ES&T Air

    Cite this: ACS EST Air 2024, 1, 12, 1531–1540
    Click to copy citationCitation copied!
    https://doi.org/10.1021/acsestair.4c00105
    Published October 30, 2024
    Copyright © 2024 American Chemical Society

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