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Modeling the Probability of Arsenic in Groundwater in New England as a Tool for Exposure Assessment

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U.S. Geological Survey NH-VT Water Science Center, 361 Commerce Way, Pembroke, New Hampshire, 03275, U.S. Geological Survey, National Center, Reston, Virginia, 20192, Department of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, 80523, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland, 20892, Section of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Department of Community and Family Medicine and the Norris Cotton Cancer Center, Dartmouth Medical School, Lebanon, New Hampshire, 03756, and Division of Health Protection, Vermont Department of Health, Burlington, Vermont, 05402
Cite this: Environ. Sci. Technol. 2006, 40, 11, 3578–3585
Publication Date (Web):April 25, 2006
Copyright © 2006 American Chemical Society

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    We developed a process-based model to predict the probability of arsenic exceeding 5 μg/L in drinking water wells in New England bedrock aquifers. The model is being used for exposure assessment in an epidemiologic study of bladder cancer. One important study hypothesis that may explain increased bladder cancer risk is elevated concentrations of inorganic arsenic in drinking water. In eastern New England, 20−30% of private wells exceed the arsenic drinking water standard of 10 micrograms per liter. Our predictive model significantly improves the understanding of factors associated with arsenic contamination in New England. Specific rock types, high arsenic concentrations in stream sediments, geochemical factors related to areas of Pleistocene marine inundation and proximity to intrusive granitic plutons, and hydrologic and landscape variables relating to groundwater residence time increase the probability of arsenic occurrence in groundwater. Previous studies suggest that arsenic in bedrock groundwater may be partly from past arsenical pesticide use. Variables representing historic agricultural inputs do not improve the model, indicating that this source does not significantly contribute to current arsenic concentrations. Due to the complexity of the fractured bedrock aquifers in the region, well depth and related variables also are not significant predictors.

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     Corresponding author phone:  603.226.7810; fax:  603.226.7894; e-mail [email protected].

     U.S. Geological Survey NH-VT Water Science Center.

     U.S. Geological Survey, National Center.


     Colorado State University, this work was conducted while on sabbatical at the Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland, 20892, USA.

     National Cancer Institute.

     Dartmouth Medical School.


     Vermont Department of Health.

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    Maps of New England showing geologic provinces and generalized lithology, a probability map emphasizing the spatial variability of elevated arsenic in New England, classification results, explanatory variables, and survey data. This material is available free of charge via the Internet at

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