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Implications of the Recent Reductions in Natural Gas Prices for Emissions of CO2 from the US Power Sector

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School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, United States
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, United States
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences and Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, United States
*Address: 100G Peirce Hall, 29 Oxford St., Cambridge, MA 02138; e-mail: [email protected]; phone: (617) 495-4359.
Cite this: Environ. Sci. Technol. 2012, 46, 5, 3014–3021
Publication Date (Web):February 9, 2012
https://doi.org/10.1021/es203750k
Copyright © 2012 American Chemical Society
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Abstract

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CO2 emissions from the US power sector decreased by 8.76% in 2009 relative to 2008 contributing to a decrease over this period of 6.59% in overall US emissions of greenhouse gases. An econometric model, tuned to data reported for regional generation of US electricity, is used to diagnose factors responsible for the 2009 decrease. More than half of the reduction is attributed to a shift from generation of power using coal to gas driven by a recent decrease in gas prices in response to the increase in production from shale. An important result of the model is that, when the cost differential for generation using gas rather than coal falls below 2–3 cents/kWh, less efficient coal fired plants are displaced by more efficient natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) generation alternatives. Costs for generation using NGCC decreased by close to 4 cents/kWh in 2009 relative to 2008 ensuring that generation of electricity using gas was competitive with coal in 2009 in contrast to the situation in 2008 when gas prices were much higher. A modest price on carbon could contribute to additional switching from coal to gas with further savings in CO2 emissions.

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Values for the parameters (a, b, c, and d) of the econometric model estimated on the basis of optimal fits to the data, Table s1. The data adopted in this analysis, Table s2. The screening curves for a power system consisting of coal fired system (CFS), gas combined cycle (GCC), and gas combustion turbines (GCT), Figure s1. A comparison of historical prices of coal and natural gas delivered to the US power sector (expressed dollars in 2010), Figure s2. This material is available free of charge via the Internet at http://pubs.acs.org.

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